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shuggee

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Everything posted by shuggee

  1. This is very true NS. Winter starts in 20 mins and we're spoilt already with interesting outputs! :smiliz19:
  2. Yes a very interesting evening of models out past T+144. Of course, illustrating that at T+80-odd the GFS has huge swings between runs upstream adds very nicely to the uncertainty but ECM is the current form horse at 5 days out so for me, this is encouraging that we won't be seeing any outrageously mild weather in early December
  3. Interesting comparison of outputs between 06z and 12z. Here's T+72 06z first, 12z second: And T+96 again 06z first, 12z second. I'd suggest this illustrates GFS current limit of reliability is around T+80-ish and then we are into FI.
  4. shuggee

    Bladdered (Or Not)

    Good luck Katie - taking it easy should come naturally!
  5. That's cold Fj :lol: I see Ballykelly in NI is reporting 0ºC - first ice day of the season?!
  6. Yep, that's my take on those stats too GMG/KW. Encouraging indeed for colder prospects.
  7. Oh yes, that was good. Thanks for posting!
  8. Full seasonal forecast to be published "in November": http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html IIRC aren't these forecasts usually released on Thursdays? If so - is tomorrow the day...?
  9. 5.2ºC Chilly start with a north westerly flow - Atlantic again for a couple of weeks - then high pressure and inversions in the run up to Xmas with a quiet holiday period. Pretty standard weather for the 2000s.
  10. Last February's total cancellation of buses in London - for the first time in history, being a good example TWS
  11. Are we sure? What year was it the M11 shut after three flakes of snow?!
  12. "The most rainfall ever recorded in the United Kingdom"- BBC News.
  13. Posted a week earlier than this year's splendid contribution on 10 November 2008: http://forum.netweat...y-rjs-and-bftp/
  14. Saw my first snow of the season this morning on top of the Trossachs, viewed from the train from Edinburgh to Glasgow Queen Street. It was clear blue skies and the sun was just rising with the tops of the mountains picked out in blazing light - ordinary folk on the train were even commenting. Lovely jubbly
  15. Hi potsy Speaking from a personal perspective, I like to set up the two frames during an update. By pressing the 'current' button on one frame and 'previous' on the other frame you can actually have both runs side-by-side for comparison. Is that any good? Alternatively of course, you just have the one frame open and press 'previous/current' with each frame and they interchange with eachother. That make sense?
  16. Yes, it's a good clear forecast and the conversation was going well until it was spoilt by a few.
  17. There's some posts here GS: http://forum.netweat...s/page__st__136 I haven't been north of Perth or Arbroath this month.
  18. Yes the first lying snow of the season last year was overnight Nov 22/23 in the city centre here. Not seen a flake or a hill top with any on yet - and there's no sign of anything before month end...
  19. It was I Mr Lewis! We don't need a plethora of threads for a bit of wind and rain. Let's keep it all together nicely
  20. So the hint of colder weather 'towards the end of the period' has disappeared for good now...
  21. Yes - that's the wrong chart. You need the 500-1000 HGT chart not the 500 Hpa chart. To illustrate, here's the difference between the two for right now: 500 Hpa HGT 500-1000 You can see the difference.
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