AWD

Forecast for Saudi Arabia instead.

What isn't clear on the photo is the track is actually approx a foot above the water level currently as it is on a raised shelf. So as things stand, the water level shouldn't affect the train running.However, it all depends on what Mother Nature throws at us in the coming days ahead.

Current situation on the Somerset Levels, between Bridgwater & Taunton; I don't think I've ever seen it as bad as that. There is almost a tide there. With more rainfall forecast over the next 10 days or so too, it's looking rather ambiguous to say the least.

I prefer to use high-res modelling where possible rather than GFS Operational charts and the high res stuff only goes out to 48hrs currently, hence why I didn't go no further than 06:00.You're right in that the GFS Op is a little more bullish in bringing some wintriness more widely across the UK, but it's not something I would put much confidence in re snowfall personally. Let's hope future high res output upgrade the potential though.

Looks primarily for areas around 500m+ Perhaps slightly lower down in Northern Ireland where some modest 850hpa temps and thickness values are felt from the northern Atlantic;

I don't think a 06z GFS FI snowfall chart is going to quite cut it in here mate.

To be fair, that tweet was before the 12z output was out (ie 12z GFS) therefore is a bit misleading now.

Latest UKMO RAW falling into line with 0z FAX and EC output now with limited scope re colder air fluctuating east coast;

Is it Spring today? Feels like it.

Being picky and not that it matters at 200+ hrs out but the pattern seems to be nudging east too me, with the UK already on the western extent of the cold evolution with days and days to go yet. Like I said, not that it matters too much at this stage, but a push or two westwards of the longwave pattern currently modelled in FI would allow us some much needed "breathing space" to play with.

The GFS Op & EC Op really aren't a million miles away from each other at day 10; Both have the Canadian vortex separating from the Scandi vortex which is the main plus. Detail with ref to our little island be it cold/mild irrelevant at this stage. Coincidence? We will soon find out.

GEFS 12z London ens trending colder; The mean (that's the red line) trending downwards throughout, hitting near enough -4c at the end. Nothing majorily cold yet, and neither would I expect so at this very early stage, but promising signs as we enter the last month of winter proper. Anyway, all in cuckoo land currently. The difference this time though is we have some stratospheric positivity for the first time this season.

Not often you see both the Op and Control run follow each other so closely right out to 384hrs; Pretty much neck & neck all the way. Both colder solutions in the extended timeframe but irrelevant at this stage.

Yay, more rain!! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=wl

Enjoyed winter yesterday morning. Was a nice change. Back to DANK today! Hopefully Feb will give us a late wintry blast before we ascend into a convective spring and sultry but stormy summer.

GFS 0z still showing a significant warming at both the 10hpa level; And at the 30hpa level; Now roughly at 300hrs out, so considering the range, some sort of consistency shown in a broad brush sense here.

What's this??? A frost! I get to open that can of De-icer I brought in November now. Looks like a sparkling day coming up though.

That's not a bad set of 12z ensembles really; Take out a few of those milder runs and you would have a rather respectable 2m mean value.

Agreed, rain for most. But as the update mentions, an average to slightly below average temperature range in mid Jan could at least promote some hill snow for a lucky few and something a little more for the far north/north east.Not that I'm close to getting anything wintry IMBY though.

Not overly cold but nothing mild there either. I've known a lot worse.

BAN tweets from the MOD thread!!!! Vote Now!

Crystal clear blue skies and a rather pleasent feel to the day today. Feels like Spring is starting early!

Looking like the vortex will soon be leaving the states and heading towards our part of the hemisphere; Asian warming and an increase in wave 1 activity looks enough to re-jig the vortex more towards our side of the pole. European heights look like steadily lowering too. Wave 1 activity rising all the time; Hints of a possible wave 2 hit in the long run maybe; All in all it's looking like a game of wait and see where the vortex rests for now. Those looking for Greenland height rises are going to need to be rather patient I feel. The shorter term prognostics look like deepening the vortex intensity there.

I wouldn't bother just yet if I were you.

Pretty good agreement within the GEFS for opportunity 1 too fail now; However, can we move quickly on to "opportunity 2"? UKMO at 144hrs shows the trough attempting to cut off into the UK; Possibility therefore of another chance to bite into the cold airmass forecast over Scandi although how long the pattern would hold is open to debate with the possibility of the Canadian vortex reinvigorating the northern arm and sinking the blocking. GFS Op not quite as split and amplified as the UKMO, but not a million miles away either; Won't bother looking past 144hrs as this will change again as it frequently has done these last few days. The GEM remains the best at 144hrs still with a more elongated and negatively tilted trough; And goes into to show how, with a bit of tweaking, we could get opportunity 2; The full GEFS suite also showing potential for opportunity 2 around the 20th; So I think we have to let the first bite go now but dust ourselves off and move onto the potential for a second bite soon after. All in all a continuation of some much improved NWP output than of late with they key final ingredient just out of arms reach for now.