Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Could the warmer than average North Sea temps allow a similar temperature differential at -7 to what it would have been at -10 if the sea temps were colder though? Or would any convective activity create more of a sleety mess?

A bit confused about Thursday's snow potential for our region or lack of it. There is a warning out for snow but the wording makes more of the fact any snow will be turning to rain rather than anything else. Then you look at the projected temperatures for Thursday which in my area are showing a max of 1c with light snow according to the automated forecast? The uppers will also be circa -4 to -7 which at face value are less marginal than today so I am not quite sure where this mild sector talk and 500m snow line is coming from as far as the Met Office are concerned? Similar uppers are predicted for Friday too yet we are seeing a warm up to 5c predicted for Friday according to the Met Office? I am sure my amateur brain must be missing something but I am nonetheless curious for an explanation? Sea track maybe?

Met office text forecast for tonight suggests rain on low ground with sleet or snow at higher levels only but where the dividing line will be is open to question. Not our last chance though even just this week let alone the rest of Winter so we shouldn't get too down if it doesn't deliver the goods. Uppers look colder towards the weekend so there is an ongoing and increasing risk of snow for our part of the world ?

Yeah I can't see any snow from that pivoting front this morning which now appears to be decaying despite the met office automated forecasts for around here. I believe that batch of precipitation off the East Coast of East Anglia is what is due to swing North and then West across our region later on. Whether that is wet or white is whole different question.

Looks to be dying out slowly now. Think we might have to wait until tomorrow evening for the fun and games to start in South Yorkshire....if we get lucky that is

I don't think this upcoming cold spell was ever forecast to be a wham bam thank you man affair? More like a slow burning friendship come relationship rather than a one night stand?! Looking at the ensembles and clusters of the various model suites this looks like a slow burner cold spell with slowly descending temperatures and a slowly increasing likelihood of snow for our shores? Blocking has the potential to set up in the Greenland locale in the coming weeks and if it does I can only see the air becoming colder and colder over the UK. In the meantime we are just receiving our starters which means cold and snow for some but nothing widespread in terms of snow or bitterly cold temperatures. Let's just enjoy the ride and chill out. Heck some people will already be able to start lamp post watching tonight! ??

Yes I have had my eye on tomorrow night for our region for a while. Could be some snowy surprises for Yorkshire with a little luck....

Radar is already looking 'busy' out West. I would imagine Pennine areas of our region might look quite white as the day goes on? Hefty shower on target for Sheffield as I type

Fingers crossed for us all. Only at 75m here but due to move in the new year and wil be gaining an extra 30 metres! Every little helps! Joking aside I will be happy with just a dusting here. Don't believe we have had any settling snow here since March 18! ?

Cant see it being dry next week. Tuesday in particular looks like being a day of frequent showers. Whether they are wet or white will be another question. This is the forecast for the Peak District on Tuesday.... Tuesday 29 December SUNRISE:08:24 SUNSET:15:56 Wintry showers expected to frequent and widespread, snow at most levels, but rain or sleet possible lower down. Bright or clear spells. Moderate or fresh west or northwest winds at height. Freezing at most levels, lifting a little during daylight hours. Monday night looks like there is potential for a more prolonged period of snow for our area as well. Either way it will be interesting to see how the next 7-10 days pans out. I think with your extra altitude you will do quite well for the white stuff ?

Yes mate not far from Ardsley! Didn't know you had moved either! Lets hope for some of the white stuff next week ?

Looks like just rain here to be fair.....

Great to have you here and all the knowledge you bring! Perfect timing for what will hopefully be a prolonged cold spell round these parts too!

A cold set of GFS ensembles this morning. This for my area in Yorkshire. Solid!

I have noticed that in the far reaches of the last couple of GFS runs that high pressure to the North East has been flexing its muscles and pushing in our direction so it is within range of affecting the UK. Maybe look East in early January?

I can't wait for Boxing Day onwards to arrive simply because Mother Nature will decide if we get rain or snow and we won't have to listen to arguments about uppers every six hours! On that note we only have 15 minutes to wait until the ECM comes out and for another round of fantastic synoptics but "cr8p" uppers arguments! Sorry for getting upperty by the way! Merry Christmas all!

But the uppers!!!

Look at that High opening up over Greenland as well

UKMOOOOOOOOOO you say? Holy Cow!!!!! Joking aside it is definitely more amplified than this morning's run and is more GFSish to my eyes?

Interesting chart that. The spread at 850 level seems far greater than the spread at 500 level. Also with regard to the 850s the spread seems greater at days 4-6 than it does at days 7-8?! Interesting model watching that is for sure and far better to keep tabs on that than looking at long fetch South Westerlies!

Northerly (turning NE?) incoming after Day 10 on this run?

Indeed. Nothing wrong with this set this morning;

Beware the toppler as I mentioned yesterday. That said laughable differences between the 6z and 12z GFS runs here for the big day. 1024mb high pressure over Iceland on the 6z run has been replaced with a 988mb low just West of Iceland on this run. Which run will be closer to the outcome who knows? Let's see where the run sits within the ensembles....

Does anyone have the 6z GFS ensembles to hand? They look a little colder than the overnight set for what they are worth. I can see some deep cold runs starting to appear in extreme FI and I wonder whether they are the more Easterly sourced runs going into the New Year period? It will be interesting to see if the 12z runs continue this trend or whether some of these ensembles are leading us up the garden path?

Looking more and more likely that Christmas Day will at least be seasonal in our part of the world this year. Snow is looking doubtful at the moment but with the pattern setting up as it appears to be at the moment a White Christmas cant be ruled out completely