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Everything posted by Kentish Snowman in Yorks
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Looking at today's model runs I think there is the potential for a large snow event somewhere within our region come Thursday into Friday. A stalling front which now looks to fail to bring the mild air through with winds backing Easterly before diving SE. My local forecast is 4c and sleet on Thursday and Friday now. Yesterday it was showing as 10c! Some places particularly on higher ground could get buried from this. Could be North of us it could be South even but the potential is there in my opinion....❄
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Model output discussion 24/01/21
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For now -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the trend with the models today is very much the cold air filtering further and further South. My area (central UK) was forecast to hit double figures by Thursday only yesterday. Now we have a stalling front and cold air filtering South and West. Any modelling showing the Atlantic barrelling through West to East needs to be taken with a truck load of salt. It seems that each low modelled slides more and more the nearer the time frame we get. ECM looks very promising for the UK being the centre of a snowy battleground over the next week -
Local met office automated forecast is now suggesting sleet turning to snow tomorrow evening with the temperature not rising above 3c all day. Interesting! Temperature not forecast to rise above 6c all week now either with sleet on Thursday which was supposed to be the day the mild weather swept in? Today could be the warmest day of the week!
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I can't see Yorkshire being in the firing line for snow as early as Wednesday night unless cold air undercuts the precipitation before it moves away. That said the models look to be firming up on a coldish spell of sorts for our region between Thursday and Monday so we might get some surprise snow during that period? Uppers don't look too spectacular although the coldest GFS ensembles do reach -10 -11 for our region during that period so who knows? Anyways we have heavy rain and potential flooding on the menu before that but fingers crossed we can avoid the worst of it!
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I think your perspective on this Winter will depend on your location though? I have had 3 notable snowfalls at only 75m ASL so far and virtually an ice day today with a few inches of snow on the ground so better than the last few Winters put together! Those further South have been unlucky so far but we are talking fine margins here. Its not like there is no chance of snow on the horizon even for the South. The GFS para run tonight is a good example of how things could pan out quite well even for the South? Fingers crossed for us all for the rest of the Winter and that the SSW does its thing for the whole of the UK