Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Well if you looked only at the GFS ensembles tonight for guidance as to conditions over the Christmas period you would think another cold spell was nailed on between 24th and 28th December Model watching is a funny old game though...

What are the uppers associated with these charts please? UKMO in particular looks 'interesting'

I am a little concerned that despite the apparently encouraging looking model runs (if you're a coldie) they do not seem to be backed up by the charts that John and Mushy use which I understand are generally more accurate. Does this mean there is still time for corrections for the worse given the general Westerly theme of such upper air charts? I want to believe we will have a cold run into Christmas but I am not getting carried away just yet!

The mild wedge shrinking run by run..... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4765997

The mild wedge shrinking run by run.....

Just had some very light snow here

Possible snow event for the North of the UK there?!

Its picking some kind of signal up

Automated Met Office forecast for here suggesting there might be a few snow showers this evening. Even got a heavy snow symbol at 7pm! Nothing on the radar yet though.... Approaching midday and still -1.3c here! Ice day incoming?

That troublesome low appears to modelled shallower and shallower looking at many of the ensembles. Signs of the cold air being underestimated? The plot thickens....

The 6z short term ensembles have trended a fair bit colder since the 0z to my untrained eye (for my location at least). I would imagine there is now large uncertainty that areas further north with warm up much at all. It's certainly keeping us on our toes anyway!

Latest GEFS run suggests continued support for a relaxation of cold from Sunday onwards but then the cold options increase fairly quickly again. By 21st December onwards I would estimate around 70% of the ensembles suite have negative uppers and around 30% have uppers at or around -5 and below. More runs needed but a cold Christmas Day can certainly not be ruled out at this stage. The NH profile looks ripe for cold in the mid latitudes going forwards we just need a bit of luck with how things pan out!

Radar seems to be pepping up a bit to the West of South Yorkshire... Almost a slight NE movement of the showers so you never know

Yes an uptick in cold options in the lead up to the big day on this morning's GFS ensemble runs. Maybe a temporary relaxation of the cold before it bites back in time for Christmas?

Yes looks like some kind of streamer setting up tomorrow morning looking at some of the output today

The GFS short term ensembles (up until next Friday night) from the 0z run are again a sea of blue this morning. Can we just get a bit of instability going that would turn the cold and dry theme into something more memorable?

Is it just me or have the GFS ensembles trended much colder in the 7-8 day time frame on the 12z run? The end of next week looks much colder than it did this time yesterday? A fair few -10 and below runs in there I believe?

That surely has to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

It looks like it's this area of showers that is heading South and may affect the region later today? Who knows if it will pep up or fizzle out beforehand though?

GFS mean at 7 days looking very good again with Easterly winds for most of the UK

A mixture of light and heavy snow forecast here (Barnsley area) for tomorrow evening between 6pm and 10pm on the Met Office app now.... Hopefully we will get a covering

Met office app is starting to show a little light snow for tomorrow evening now (South Yorkshire).

If Crewe is not throwing in the towel then nobody should be as he is usually the first to call time on a cold spell if justified. Keep the faith guys

Surely a sliding Azores low a la the ICON 12z run will only assist in drawing more cold air in from the East? Looks to be a help rather than a hindrance in that regard to my untrained eye? We just don't want it driving NE I suppose but I can't see that being likely given the depth of cold over Scandi. All in all a fascinating and potentially very cold and snowy period of weather coming up

Looks like the pub run is showing signs of the weekend being very 'interesting' for our region snow wise