Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Looks quite an unstable air mass that....

PV heading UK bound at 240 on this ECM run!

Looking like a cracking cold spell coming up. Wednesday onwards looks like being when the real fun and games start. Not too much snow forecast across the region at present but provided the cold becomes entrenched the chances of snow will only increase. Some hard frosts and ice days are also a possibility if the winds stay light and skies stay clear. A great start to Winter and a festive feel to the run up to Christmas!

Is the MJO really that much of a significant driver of our weather? I am sure I remember on a number of occasions in recent years where it has moved into some apparently favourable phases (for cold weather) but that its failed to have the expected impact?

I think I may have asked this before but do you have a link for these graphs? I assume you can adjust them for your own location? Thanks

It looks like there may be some heavy wintry / snow showers across our region later on tomorrow into tomorrow night as Eunice pulls away? Forecast for my area of South Yorkshire tomorrow evening for example;

Proper squally here! Really windy with some torrential rain in bursts....

Bit of a damp squib here so far. Temp around 3c Dew around 1c

Temperature went above 3c around half an hour or so ago but looks to be dropping back again already. Down to 2.5c here. Colder air moving back in already?

A few tiny flakes blowing around in the wind here ❄ Temp 1.6c / Dew -0.8c

Again it's not about who is right or wrong as nobody is predicting 100% what an outcome will be. We are surely just discussing the model output as it comes out? I just don't get the one upmanship and sniping in this forum at times. The weather will do what it wants to do regardless of our hot air! Anyways on that note I'm off to find a cold chart in Fantasy Land!

I don't get why some posters get so uptight about other posters discussing model output in 'fantasy land'? Yes we all know there is a very low probability of said charts coming to fruition but many posters would prefer to point out the cold possibilities in the modelling (no matter how slim they are) rather than the standard fayre ('reality' charts if you like) model output in the nearer time frames. If you want to discuss what's likely to happen that's fine but surely it is each to their own if a 240+ chart gets alot of attention (100 posts as you put it)? My own view is that the thoughts of Catacol and Crewe are far more likely to be correct than the fantasy GFS charts of yesterday but surely as as long as the posts discussing said charts are not misleading then there is no harm! Yesterday's 12z GFS run has already been watered down by subsequent runs (entirely expected) but that surely doesn't make yesterday's discussion regarding the run any less valid? A waste of bandwidth in some people's eyes perhaps but entirely within the realms of the forum rules nonetheless?

Cheers mate. Any thoughts on Friday for our region? West Yorkshire favoured or are areas North and South of that in with a shout of some snowfall potential?

Nice GFS this evening (if you're a coldie). I wonder whether ECM will show any hints of the same outcome?! And to the fatalists that are adamant the charts won't come off....you are highly likely to be proven right. However this is the model output discussion thread and so discussion of model output discussion is surely allowed regardless of one's preference and / or enthusiasm! Oh and there might be some snow kicking about in the forecast for many in the next couple of days

Think I might have asked this before but do you have a link to these GEFS charts? Cheers

Quite light sleety wet snow here. No sign of settling. Merry Christmas all!

Yes we should but we all get sucked in by the thrill of the chase on occasions. Me you and any number of the other told you so'ers are not immune to it. On that note I'm off to find a day 10 cold chart to hang my hat on!

My comment was tongue in cheek. In reality I suspect its verification stats are no better if not worse than the major models. I'm sure it has its "days in the sun" but I don't think I will be ditching all the other output just yet! For greater forecast accuracy we should just back whichever model shows the worst outcome for cold!

Wow what a turnaround! I wonder whether @mushymanrob has any thoughts on the overnight runs and the apparent implosion of the cold outlook? We will see how things pan out but the forecast cold spell between Christmas and New Year now looks like it has been derailed. Somebody once said the train isn't coming until you can see the train.....pertinent this morning!

Thought I would come to the mod thread for some model related chat but it's just utter drivel and toy throwing. My summary of the models this evening for the next week or so.... Milder for all from Thursday Northern UK turning colder during Christmas day with Southern areas of the UK staying milder until later on in the day into Boxing day. The cold looks like winning out for most / all after the weekend. Snow chances for areas where the mild and cold air meets. There is no 1962 redux on the horizon. Equally there are no raging South Westerlies and no reason for despondency if you're a coldie and this Christmas period is miles better than the usual dross we are served up with so be grateful for that! Merry Christmas all!

Looks promising for Yorkshire that. It would be nice to see snow falling on Christmas day if nothing else even if it doesn't accumulate

Well well well. All the towels thrown in yesterday are hastily being picked up and somebody has called a cab for the fat lady. The question is though is her song cancelled or just delayed? Brilliant output so far this afternoon if you are of a cold persuasion.

Well the 6z GFS has put the cat amongst the pigeons! What's the betting we will have posters moaning about Christmas being too dry again by this evening as the low pressure has gone too far South?! More drama than a Christmas edition of Eastenders at the moment!

So looking at this mornings runs those lauding the GFS for calling the Christmas period correct yesterday are now backing the coldest outcome! The models make fools of all of us! Christmas day is now coming into range for the reliable time frame and you would have to say that for the Southern half of the UK it's looking far more likely wet than white. However Boxing day onwards is still all to play for and those in Northern England northwards (perhaps the Midlands northwards with elevation) are still in with a shout for snow falling (at least) late on Christmas day. Fascinating viewing at the moment this model watching!

It's madness isn't it?! Some have drawn a line in the sand after tonight's runs as if this is the final outcome? The pendulum is continuing to swing and will do so for the next day or so before we get a bit more clarity.