Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Looking at the bright echoes on the radar this is certainly an active front. Bodes well for evaporative cooling to come into play tonight and tomorrow but flooding but might be more of an issue before that?!

2-5cms yellow snow warning issued for Saturday now ?❄ Issued: 11:14 (UTC) on Wed 13 Jan 2021 An area of rain pushing eastwards is expected to turn snow in places as it encounters colder air across Scotland and parts of northern and eastern England. At first the main hazard may be rain falling onto frozen surfaces leading to ice, especially on higher level routes. However snow becomes more likely during the early morning. Heavier snowfall is more likely above 200 m in Scotland and northern England, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate, possibly 20 cm on highest routes. At lower levels and further south, 2-5 cm of snow may accumulate in places, but the situation is finely balanced, with the possibility that most lower-lying areas, especially in the east, will see rain or sleet rather than snow.

There appears to be some brighter echoes heading this way on the radar. Too early for evaporative cooling to play its part?

I see an Amber Warning for snow has been issued for areas to our North. I suspect the yellow warning issued yesterday for our area will be updated within the hour.... More of Yorkshire and the Midlands in play?

I notice that chart is for Midnight Wednesday into Thursday. I thought our main interest in terms of snow was Thursday morning onwards?

The local automated forecast from the Met Office has me down for 24 hours continual heavy rain and a temperature of 2c from tomorrow lunchtime until Thursday lunchtime

Looking at the latest model runs its looking almost certainly like a rain fest to low ground tomorrow. Tomorrow night into Thursday however and things may turn more favourable for a snowy surprise in our region ❄

Met office has moved the warning area as far South as Derbyshire but York no longer in the warning area.... Risk of 2-5cms on low ground 5-10cms above 200m......

The real cold has been forecast for around 20 January give or take a day for days and days. If we get to the 18th and the cold is still over a week away your comment is justified. I actually think this forecast cold spell has been ticking down quite nicely. Only around a week away now so we should start firming up on the details over the next 2 or 3 days ?

A -17 run has been spotted on the latest run of the GFS ensembles....

Hold up forget Wednesday and Thursday what is this regional forecast for tonight?! I know it talks about snow "mainly on the hills" but I didn't realise it was even marginal tonight? -5c with snow cover? Interesting.....

Interesting Met Office forecast for Yorkshire from midweek onwards this morning. Plenty of uncertainty even at 2/3 days out? Models also looking good in the longer term this morning

Eh? I'm sure the landing point for proper cold has been 20/21 January for days now? That is still 240 hours away based on the current output?

More ensembles breaching the -10 threshold now on the GFS overnight run around the 21st onwards. One of them (which I like to call the trendsetter!) even touches -16! Momentum is building for a potentially very cold end to the month!

I always see 'negative posts by big Steve as a positive as they are often followed by Stella model output! With that in mind eyes down for a pub run special!

The Peak District forecast for next week is also interesting. Changes may be afoot.....

Coming down moderately here now. Got a dusting already!

Radar looking more lively to our East all of a sudden ❄

Freshly issued warning for some parts of our region! Just North of here unfortunately but you never know

I'm looking at that too. Looks to building a little just off the coast

I think that chart is for Manchester in the States!

The heavier stuff is moving virtually East to West! Hardly any North to South movement at all? It is slow moving though so somewhere might get a pasting if the conditions are favourable? Looks quite wintry around the Harrogate area.....

You are under those heavier echoes on the radar I suspect. That is our only chance of the snow line lowering when evaporative cooling comes into play etc. No danger of any heavy stuff visiting South Yorkshire any time soon though! In fact it looks like drying up completely for now?!

The mean 850s barely going positive now?! A significant albeit temporary drop in the 850s being shown early next week now as well

Matt Taylor on BBC Breakfast just said the snow will turn back to rain across some parts of Yorkshire this morning. What snow?!