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legritter

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Posts posted by legritter

    Model Discussion - 16th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    looking at ALL MODELLS ,its still saying , big pool of cold heading south or s/e . lets take away the high to our s/w ,which at the moment i think is being attacked come this weekend . beyond 144 hrs could go any way , GFS as forecast some good blocking to our east later in its runs , this could help push a good cyclonic spell south across our shores . this could be the start of something a bit more interesting , . i would say going on present mod output ,there is a very good chance of snow in favoured locations ,even at low levels before next mon /tue and keep an eye on that cold front to our south on sat , i wonder what GFS will throw up for this sat /sun on tonights run , looking foreward to tonights fax cheers gang :drinks:

    Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    evening gang ,im liking tonights posts ,its nice to be back after a week of not looking at any charts or reading any weather in any paper or media . gfs seems to be out on its own but is tempting us to some possibilities in its later stages . if the ECM 120 /200 hrs comes of im sure there will be many a happy poster . met office being very carefull at the mo ,but im sure when they see anything news worthy we will know 120 /144 hrs before .most main modells do show large pressure rise in north atlantic , and some of them globally have pressure north of equater a lot lower come 20th , but as always with forecast modells ,lets not get carried away and get taken to PARADISE , but saying that im HOOKED and starved of snow so ecm ,met office ,and gfs bring it on ,gfs out soon , regards legritter :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    looking at all of todays charts i half expected to be where we are now . but i would not be surprised if ECM is much furmer over the following days . its deeling with a big pressure rise , whether its to the n/e or north , and dont forget any orientation that is to be forecast will come much nearer the time .also looking at GFS , i know its knocked alot but it still keeps churning out ,plenty of highs ,north and east ,.so i think 3/4 days to still be patient ,but i think the big news of tomorrow could be met update . good model watching ,im of for a break ,cheers gang

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    its been a painfull ride this winter ,but alas todays charts are alot firmer . this time tomorrow is critical , just need those highs same similar places or a little firmer north , im only going to keep a watchfull eye on GFS out to about 264 hrs , and ecm 216 . i know its been mentioned but IT DOES NOT TAKE MANY DAYS for deep cold to materialise . there could be a clash with air masses about 16/17th but thats a long way of ,we might have to wait till 20th , but if the highs dont become too flabby we could get a good deep easterly . its ironic im of down to hampshire next week 5 days ,no computer , so plenty of chart dreaming . weve all suffered , or most have lately so enjoy the charts , will be interesting met update monday no dought , regards legritter :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    just hang on in there ,ok a week of mild dross then action again . we could get some eye candy come monday ,all to play for .perhaps a very disturbed COLD ZONAL is on its way .extreme cold zonal helped to pile all that ice up at start of ice age especially on western side , if only , mega lake effect snow 10cm an hour job ,looking foreward to tonights ecm run , :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    before any body chucks in the towel ,DONT , if a major change is on its way lets say for instance in 12days time we have a good high pressure belt greenland to far n/w of russia ,and low pressure takes up a position further south ,WE wont be seeing much on the models for a few more days , lets just remain calm ,gang , the charts are teasing us because its only modells working on billions of information . we dont need any ridge sticking up the aleutions thank you very much , we can still get cold with its usuall aleution low . a bit more energy north of the tropics could be a help , dont worry if this azores high hangs around any longer it will get a big crank up its rear from me . im sure us coldies will get our rewards for being patient , cheers legritter :drinks:

    Atlantic Storms - January 2012

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    front approaching s/w ireland ,rain across southern ireland now , i personally think all prone places could get a good hammering ,this must be a hard one for the MET ,the problem being depth of low combined with high pressure to s/west , and day time peak of gusts , also cold front being influenced by ,. post ka , .. and daytime heating .;;. hope all stay safe,regards legritter , im off to cinema :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    yes ,enjoy the ride .we are starting to see what most of us wanted . cold air coming into europe , the atlantic slowing down ,the models at longer range will always chop and change , just think as iv pointed out before 50 miles plus per day over next 240 hrs = 500 miles at least =,all that high pressure could finish up in the right place gang , i know there are other types of physics involved but the bottom line is the heavier the amount of molecules above a given place especially if warmed up ,the higher the pressure , im sure we have a possible strat warming event now about to show its hand . hope im right , going by my limited knowledge of strat warming , and iv read the posts from our threads ,north america , canada and astronomical sights , also quarterly journal , but its a bit thechnical ,but still informative , anyhow going by this i will stick my head out and say continental feed by 12th jan cheers :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    :drinks: a good start to the new year for us mod watchers ,it will be interesting to see what ecm is showing at 240 hrs from about next tues onwards , i think it will be a painfull week but perhaps some rewards come the following , if this very interesting low on tues day ish does take a good track further south , it could be a very early sign of things a changing , anyhow thanks to all the gang for their brilliant contributions with charts and tech details etc , all the best for 2012 ,lets hope its a BEASTERLY :good:

    The Uk's Most Distruptive Snowfalls

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    yes 30cms in 24hrs down near exeter at minus 3 with gale force winds ,feb 18th 1978 ,white hell was headlines . also march 4 th 1947 , south of bristol 40cms at minus 2 vast drifts , april 1908 a couple of exceptional deep fals especially in oxford cambridge bristol ,also low temp for late in season ,the victorian blizzards in the 1880s not sure which year , 60cms quite widely across southern britain .cheers legritter

    Atlantic Storms - January 2012

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    yes certainly one to watch .will be interesting chart watchtng over next couple of days . will be interesting if this low does track further south , at least we will get plenty of warning from met office , i dont think it will finish up a channel low ,but could finish up very deep somewhere ,eng /scot borders , with a very tight pressure gradiant further south ,and some very interesting weather behind ,cold front . just a thought if it does track further south as of todays predictions ,it COULD be heralding something going on in the very complicated subject that we are all in love with . many years ago before all these modells etc and only about 144 hr charts to generally go by ,a north atlantic low in winter ,heading further south or s/e was a good sign of a possible change , i suggest any learners take notice of JOHN HOLMES ,follow movement and developement read all information put on by experienced members etc ,keep a record for future reference , and enjoy the ride ,regards legritter ps my new computer or reconditioned one was no good ,hope to sort problem soon :drinks:

    Atlantic Storms - January 2012

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    :help: nearly got blown over today ,nothing major but went up garden for a little skive in our shed . when i came out there was a gust ,which nearly took the door off , we might be stuck in generally mild muck but its certainly ACTIVE .next weeks low as very good potential , but we need to wait for tomorrows runs to firm things up , then tomorrow nights fax to give us a possible track .if it does track further south it COULD be the start of something a little bit wintry , IT CAN happen like this . we dont know what the models might be showing come monday , i dont post very often in this part of the forum but i am always looking in ,so thanks to the people who post charts and data etc ,take care ,regards legritter :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    evening all ,looking at all the charts and looking in on all weather forums in the northern hemisphere , sorry some of , its looking like zonal for a while ,but in my opinion there is a possible change a coming about 10 days time . it could be a very slow process , there are some signs of higher pressure popping up in the poles and signs that the jet could head further south . its great having all these super computers giving us these forecast modells out to 240 hrs and 380 hrs and of course even longer , but it gives us a big problem when youre FIX DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE CHARTS . DO YOURE EYES GO STRAIGHT TO THE BOTTOM LEFT ., BLINKING AZORES HIGH SHUV OFF . or across the top , oh no ,everything is heading north , anyhow for those wanting a little fix especially neweys ,watch the charts over the next 6/7 days on how they handle next weeks low , it could be very interesting ,you could be looking at a possible major event ,or possibly not ,as iv said before ,stay tuned to NET WEATHER and learn , i think iv lurnt more the last 3 years by just clicking on net weather than my 20 yrs as a fellow , GFS starting to update in a few minutes ,just keep an eye about 240 hrs , spoke to an ex colleagueinpoland ,they are forecasting a change in 10days time ,didn,t ask to many questions as raw data comes from , different sources ,well good modell watching cheers, :drinks: ps any one for a v,cold zonal , it could come just to shut some of us up .

    Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    we all know the high pressure to our south and s/w could be around for a long time ,BUT 10 DAYS from now it might just pack up its bags and equally disappear . the models are starting to show us possible outcomes , i cant see mild temp plaquing N/W europe for much longer ,as i said months ago , im sure this winter will be a quick change artist , just look at the potential weather over northern uk this week ,theres plenty of action taking place , so mild dross at the moment because mother nature SAYS SO ,but mother nature is full of surprises ,for you new ones , dont take to much notice of changing end charts as these are so hard even for a super computer ,but take notice of a run of consistant charts ,singing of the same hymn sheet , dont listen to anyone who tells you that the nights are getting longer and snow wont lay , have a good look at historical charts , this is a brilliant forum , gfs about to finish run soon , wonder what change there is on last 3 days of run cheers legritter .

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    EVENING ALL ,iv been asked to post in this thread ,can someone tell me the BEST place to look for past records for the lowest DAM number recorded along english channel . im doing a little research which i will post in new year . im hoping things could go our way in new year ,plenty of little things popping up on current charts , would love to see a winter on par with about half a dozen from the 1600 hundreds ,17th century .i bet there was many extreme spells not even properly documented from 1500 hundreds and iv read some old manuscrips from monks etc of people froze solid .i always think its happened before etc etc . odviousely the dam as only been known recently but knowing the possible would help :drinks:

    Southern England Regional Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    today i could have picked red roses from garden , raspberries yes raspberries , a harlem lily from next door ,nesturtion to mix with the lettuce , snails a plenty , three french hens two ,sorry getting carried away . this time last year a white out , lets hope we see some good charts coming soon , nesturtion should be nasturtion well iv had a little tipple cheers :drinks:

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