Chris K

As long as we don't end up with constant cold, benign setups with grey skies for days on end.

Just to try put this one to bed... there is a difference between saying that the Met Office said we ARE going to get a decade of wet Summers to what they actually said... Professor Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, and Dr James Screen, a NERC Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, were careful in their messaging about the AMO. They talked about initial research which suggests this cycle, which can last for 10-20 years, can ‘load the dice’ to mean we may see a higher frequency of wetter than average summers before switching to its opposite phase, where we may see the opposite effect. Currently, they said, it appears we are well into the ‘wet’ phase of this cycle, so it may continue to have an influence for a few more years to come. That does not mean every summer will be a ‘washout’ for the next decade and shouldn’t be taken as a deterministic forecast for what we will see in the years to come. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/19/media-coverage-on-wet-summers-for-a-decade/

What is also interesting is that overall since around June - bar various 'blips' - it has felt like we have had a (excuse the rubbish term) "parent pattern" of the azores high sitting to our SW eventually pushing into and across the UK repeatedly and often linking up with the high over Scandi. The 'strength' of Lower pressure from the South or East were then affecting whether it would stick around or weaken it. This has reset time and time again, but with these periods of time inbetween where something prolonged would spawn from the "parent pattern" and then stuck around until reset again, like the July heat.Only now does it seem to be transitioning to a different pattern as the Jet Stream looks to be awakening from slumber. I will personally be watching for signs for any potential long lasting "parent pattern" setting up over the next few months, as it seems to be a trend in recent years.My thoughts are all purely unscientfic and as much use as a punt for a white christmas....but it's interesting nonetheless from a personal point of view whilst staring at the models year round.

Yep Jane I must admit I'm extremely disappointed this year as I missed the storms in early August, so all I have had is a few rumbles in January....which is still more than what others have had!! Thunderstorms are my favourite weather and not being able to hardly experience any for the past couple of years at least has put a dampner on my interest to be honest. It's just been a case of chasing charts only to be disappointed time and time again. Convective activity overall has been very low this year as well in my opinion? I guess with the cold Spring and generally more settled Summer this is why that is the case. I don't think i've spent one day staring at the radar this year hoping that the rash of 'popcorn' cells doesn't miss me. Ah well..perhaps something may spark off this month/early Oct before the 'season' ends... but it's looking unlikely....so as you say...there's always next year...

Loving it - nice work and the fact it scales to my tablet/mobile is so much better!

I believe he has moved into a post within a professional organisation and as such, is now restricted in posting his work & thoughts publicly online outside of whoever he works for. Please correct me if i'm wrong of course.

Looks like quite a typical Autumn battle being modeled with systems trying to fight their way in whilst also giving chance of some pleasant settled weather at times. Will hopefully please most with a right mixture of weather if it was to come off as you describe (obviously there will be changes one way or the other to some degree)

Confirmed - I live about 10 miles North of Bristol and i'm seeing lightning flashes in the sky to the NW. I'm hearing no thunder at all so it must be far way.

In the reliable timeframe, nothing much of interest. However, the models seem to like the idea of eventually placing a trough to our SW and eventually push it towards the UK. Depending on how unstable the airmass is across Southern UK, there could be some potential for thunderstorms or that dreaded 'thundery rain' to arrive from our South?? However...if you have you been reading the Model output thread recently, you'll realise there is quite a lot of uncertainty from Thursday onwards, so I'll be waiting until at least then to see what the outputs show convection wise.

I think it's a good time to open this up also. That way Autumn and winter discussion doesn't get muddled up and those who don't want to hear the utterance of snow for another 3 months can stay away It's interesting to see a few long range forecasts coming out with differing views. Most have gone for a milder, perhaps 'zonal' winter this year, particularly to begin with. Then perhaps signals for colder weather to encroach during Feb/March again. However as others have pointed out, since May the CFS has been trending for a winter dominated by Northern Blocking throughout. Obviously it will flip flop each run you look at, but the trends have been there. I wonder how CFS will perform this year? - that is one thing I'm keen to keep an eye on. Finally, I can't help but feel that we are overdue a' stormy winter'. I can't remember the last time we had a proper storm blast through the UK (not that I want damage or danger to life of course...it just fascinates me how they are modeled and develop). Whilst of course we have had the occasional deep system move towards the UK, it has been a while since I've actually heard the roar of constant severe gales and the howling of trees from nearby woodland during the night. Can't wait for more forecasts to start appearing with people's thoughts and analysis for potential trends this Winter.

Hmm it does look interesting but it seems too much of a repeat pattern. I think last time the models showed this a week out the system over Iberia never really made it into the UK at all and stayed too far to our S/SW? Definitely worth keeping an eye on though throughout the week. *Secretly crosses fingers and toes*

Yea the trend has been there, but I think it will depend on how fast the trough modelled to the N/NW at the same time moves closer to the UK (if it does of course). If too soon, any developments from our South look likely to be pushed Eastwards too fast.Certainly keeping my eye on it though, as I missed the storms during early August and seen nil activity this year....I even feel like convective shower activity overall has been lacking.

I'm just about to start 'S104 - Exploring Science' this October. Received all the text books and 'practical kit' last week. I'll be doing S141 next year but that's no help to you obviously! Out of interest, are you doing it as part of a degree or standalone? I've been in higher education before for my HNC, but now decided to venture into degree level to try get the BSc (Hons) Natural Sciences. Going to be a busy few years I think with full time work as well!

Here we go again Love this thread.

If all this happens whilst i'm going on a trip through Europe I'm going to cry. I get back on the 3rd August...any explosions needs to wait until then!!! Unless of course Germany/Austria/Czech Republic or Poland join in any fun over the next 2 weeks

My storm forecast - 100% chance of storms across the UK from Thurs 18th July - Saturday 3rd August as I'm in Poland and all the action will arrive whilst I'm away

You know this year's been quiet when you've hardly seen any posts saying "great...yet another damp squib'

Top notch guide Nick thank you. Brilliant for amateurs like me to help me understand topics such as this in much more detail.

24.3 degrees here, crystal blue skies....lovely and it doesn't feel humid at all today. Perfect summer weather and long may it continue. Had our local carnival today with local charities, bands and other groups doing a parade up the jam packed high street - fantastic colors and displays - what luck they've had with the weather being so nice, as our last one was a washout! Humidity for my area is forecast to rise a little as the week progresses....but not as high as previous warm spells I've seen, so hopefully it should be nice rather than too oppressive! (Although I must admit wearing smart clothes in a packed office isn't comfortable as we do not have a/c - plus the buildings have glass ceilings along the center, so we're basically in a greenhouse)

"forecasters say a record-breaking 100F (38C) is possible"

Yea - I tend to stick with the Met Office temp forecasts rather than the GFS ones. Whilst not always perfect, the Met's ones tend to be spot on or very close for my area. I know some people have different views/experiences though.

Yep I agree - Back on Monday it suggested this build of High pressure over the UK to last some time and has been generally consistent throughout the working week so far.With regards to positioning inconsistency that some mention, it's obviously impossible to expect a model to pin point where exactly it will sit. With changes occuring constantly around the globe, these tiny tweaks can result in rather big differences for any region you look at. Like others here, I've taken the view of waiting a few days at least before worrying about any 'breakdown' that may occur. It will obviously happen at some point, but being this far out, it's a bit difficult to see how exactly it might initiate and then know what will follow. So far i've seen options appearing such as low pressure swinging down from the NW, or another where the high pushes east potentially bringing up even warmer air from the South. Until I see some consitency, I'm holding back on making any judgements. I'll leave that to the more pro posters here with better medium-long term signal knowledge Enjoy what looks like to be at least a week of decent, settled, warm weather. I never expect day after day of uninterrupted crystal blue skies due to our location (although it does happen occasionally!!) - I'm just glad that (so far) we haven't seen a repeat of last years washout that many experienced.

Don't think I've seen High pressure smack over the UK for that long on a model run for a long time, if at all since I've used this forum. Uppers 'cool' slightly as we venture through the run because of shifts in position, but all it suggests is a bit of a move around as to who will see the highest temperatures, with maxes still reaching mid-high twenties showing on these charts (obviously I'm not taking these as gospel) Only until deep deep F.I are there signs of change in this particular run! I wish I was on annual leave next week!!!!!!

Loving the optimism from some this morning - I'm not a huge fan of really high temperatures myself (especially if coupled with high humidity), but thats based purely on the fact that like many, I'm in an office environment during the day, with no air conditioning that get's very uncomfortable in smart clothes. haha However...apart from that, I am actually very much looking forward to what could potentially be a very decent warm/hot spell in quite some time. It looks like I will be able to get on enjoying some top notch evening weather outside, with the days still being long. To avoid being completely off topic ... This mornings runs look good to me and to whilst there have been signs of an eventual 'breakdown' of the forecast warmth back to something more average, this seems to be flucuating between whether it will happen as soon as mid-late next week or even later. The trend is currently there for the High to eventually get pulled back West into the Atlantic...but let's be honest, I think many heat fans are eager to get on enjoying whatever we get before thinking about how it might go again. Either way, Im not really seeing many signs of anything substantial yet when it comes to a breakdown to unsettled conditions and rainfall. I'm sure those with more advanced knowledge than me will update on the potential changes once it becomes clearer.