Mapantz
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Mapantz replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes. If you look at the EXIF data of the picture, it says it has been edited with Pixlr - a picture editor. -
A bit more detail.. A range of models and their pressure projections for here: Saturday 9am: Sunday 9am: That's impressive! Possible low 970's or maybe even a 969mb by Monday.
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A 35 - 40mb drop in pressure in under 24 hours for some places.. My record on this station is 29.1mb - I reckon that could go?!
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I agree if comparing GFS/other models to the MetO warning. What I cannot understand is their own wind forecasts - they don't match the warnings at all. If you go by the wind forecasts, then why wasn't there a warning out for Weds in to Thurs night? There was a stretch of around 8 - 10 hours of 45mph +, yet they're forecast shows the low 40's for around 3 hours. The weather maps and wind forecasts have always seemed correct during a warning, but not this time. It's extremely confusing.
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Just been out to shine the handheld sun up in to the sky, I can confirm a flake or two mixed in with the rain.
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That snow rain shower is heading right for me.
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I know i'm going to get shouted out for going on about it, but re Sunday's wind warning... I've just had a look at the app, and the wind gusts are showing higher for Monday than they are on Sunday. Even the BBC said 50mph gusts widely. I just cannot work it out!
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I reckon he's been looking at that ridiculous ECM snow chart that keeps getting banded around on here. It makes the GFS precip-type chart look accurate at 384 hours.
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Most of the region is under -8C upper air, but it makes no odds if the wetbulb temps aren't interested. Easterlies or GTFO for me.
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So far, this is turning out to be a weaker cold snap than the one at the end of November, even that one was poor!
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Just had a shower of rain here. It shows that the WBFL is not low enough.
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The distance he is miming with his hands?
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What is this skullduggery? Are the planets alligning?
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Just a few precip charts, to help salivate those who might be in the running..
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https://www.warehamwx.co.uk/cumulus/ The first two forecast icons on my home page.. first time I have ever seen them since setting it up. lol
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I was thinking the same thing. It has been chilly, but not cold. I keep repeating it, but these set-ups are a waste of time down this way.
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Met Office not really on board with that idea.. 30mph forecast. I'm still confused about the wind warning on Sunday. I simply do not understand why the forecast winds here aren't as strong as they were Weds/Thurs and a warning issued for it.. According to their map, it should be gusting to 35mph now. It's gusting to 3mph. Light winds. Where are they getting this information from?
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That'll be from this?!
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I can see that some Southerners will be posting up to the 11th hour saying that there's still time for corrections South.. It doesn't matter how many times you keep trying to polish that turd, it's far easier to roll it in glitter.
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I think that orange cross-hatching means the possibility of ice/freezing rain.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Mapantz replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Freezing rain. -
My sister is at a decent elevation though, she lives at the top of a block of flats.
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A good example of WBFL being pulled down in heavier precip.. despite the NetWx radar saying otherwise (due to what the NMM charts project) My sister says she can see flakes falling in Bournemouth.
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Yeah - they'll continue to lower through the day and overnight. Of course, the WBFL will be dragged lower during heavier showers. We'll have to hope that shower activity continues.
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Wetbulbs too high for snow even if a shower makes it here. The best you can hope for is some sleet/wet snow mixed unless you're at a decent elevation.
