Mapantz

T-850's do indeed increase on the ECM by next weekend, but that time frame for me is beyond reliable even with anti-cyclonic conditions around. And like a few have mentioned, the models turned on a sixpence very quickly. I do however think that the downpour risk increases nicely next week, maybe a few surprises regarding it. :-)

Not a chance. Cooler than this week, that's for sure.

Crazy 18.8°C dewpoint here, all that potential going to waste lol

Yet again today, showers/t-storms will be extremely localised. Although the chance is slightly greater than that of the past few days. My attention turns to the south west on Sunday possibly. Showers and maybe some t-storms breaking out there.

It'll change by the 12Z. But i think there's enough support to show it a little more unsettled in the South later on next week, as a low retrogresses towards Ireland. More showers/rain about for many, but some hazy sunshine in between. Not a write off, but certainly not like this week.

As long as the anti cyclone is as strong as it is, that CAPE will all be wasted.

Not far from 26°C myself. Dewpoint has just reached 18°C Just took this image on my phone quickly ..

26 reached in your area, or just in general?

Got exactly the same here, if you follow my link below and click webcam.

Dewpoint of 16.3°C here right now. I like heat, but not this heat. It didn't drop below 21°C in my room, then the temp outside is at 17°C by 8:45am. Very uncomfortable.

They didn't show much at all for tomorrow or Thursday. In fact, it's that isolated, i'd rather stick to the warm and sunny conditions.

I'd gladly take an islolated shower here, if i can get a bit of lightning with it. It's almost been 10 years since i had actually had a genuine thunderstorm here, most of the time they clip me.

This backs up the reply i got from the Met Office .. UKMO Chief Forecaster:- re Weds shower signal: "GFS looks over the top...". ISOL heavy showers are poss in S areas.

It would be good, but the GFS is overcooking it i think. Southern areas could see some showers though.

Despite good dew points and CAPE etc .. i have to agree, showers will be isolated.

Points West isn't broadcasted in this area. The heaviest rain was forecasted to be between 9pm and midnight. Again, that was wrong. I did some weighing up of the models around that time last night, to compare them to the radar. The GFS/UKMO/NAE were all wrong, A: The totals were way out, and so was the indication of the heaviest rains. The HIRLAM was the closest one. The warnings were in the wrong place too, not surprising the MO removed them at lunchtime. I'm not the only one who thinks the forecasts for here were wrong, my Facebook is covered with complaints about what they saw on TV, and what actually happened. I'm not blaming the forecasters, as they used the models, exactly the same as me. But without a doubt, they over did the rainfall projections. I put this down to the high T-850's, plume style. I've seen precip models get over cooked before, but i've also seen the reverse, not much rain forecasted and then it belts down! lol Funnily enough, they didn't mention last night about this afternoons rainfall here, more fell in a 2hr 30min period than it did all night, and by then the warnings had gone.

There was always great potential, but there's always a big difference between that and it actually coming to fruition. Such a shame for those who went out chasing. Get home and grab a beer.

I agree it was complexed, but looking at the GFS/NAE/UKMO precip charts for 9pm-ish were all well off the mark. The only one that came close to what the radar was showing was the HIRLAM model. Oh well, not to worry. lol

I know this is the SE thread, but i saw the south west mentioned in that article. Personally, the rainfall totals forecasted were wayyyyy over the top for southern parts.

It was warmer here last night than it is now lol just 13.3°C Rainfall projections by the models were dearly overcooked for the south last night. Sunshine trying to come out here, but i would of thought the best chance of storms would be around Leicestershire in to Lincolnshire later, have fun if you're heading that way.

The models over did the precip side of things for the south, with out a doubt. I actually had more yesterday from drizzle and light rain than i did over night. 20 to 30mm? How about 8mm?

Ahh i see, so that's where all the confusion has come from. I'll hop to another thread then.

Perhaps the thread should have been called something else then? When i first read 'stormy' i was under the impression it was to do with rain and winds.

It looks like it's scooting up at a more acute angle than that. The heavier stuff looks like going towards the IoW and East.

It's still strange. Have a peek at this, http://www.gardiners.info/graphs.html Manuden, not too far from you. The outside humidity graph shows it in the 80's and 90's quite a lot. 12.5°C dew point here. Definitely a muggy feel to it. Looking forward to some heavy rain though.