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Everything posted by Robbie Garrett
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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15
Robbie Garrett replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting set-up probably going to develop late-mid month. 240hrs out the ECMWF and GFS are similar but not carbon copies. FI looks to move a cold pool of Scandinavia post 240hrs, first signs of a change to the norm? That Jet Stream is really strong throughout January, no surprise for a rinse repeat of Oct-Dec 2015 throughout the majority of January. Where's that Pesky Azores High? -
August 2015 CET forecasts
Robbie Garrett replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
16.9c -
I came in 15 minutes ago, had a massive IC lightning and heavy rain. Now lots of flashes to the south and south east of SE17 (Elephant & Castle) - all of this is home grown, so the cap is well and truly broken. I've always said there's something magical when this setup is perfect, the south downs and London produce something special.
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I seem to remember that after a late evening and long hot day - London provides a heat island affect that nowhere else can match in the UK, 7 times out of 10 it's exploded storms normally drifting over from the South, the south downs also gets things going. You just have to fly along the South Downs in an airplane or depart London Gatwick and you'll realise how turbulent that area is. I guess it's not exact science but theoretically it's plausible that some sort of acts are at work there that help break the CAP on a regular basis. Looking at the TAF's I'd hazard a guess anything east of Heathrow is where the CAP will be broken tonight. The storms being more severe the further east you go. The AIRMET also says quite a sea-breeze going on in the SE. 0000085600 628 FAUK34 EGRR 030430 AIRMET AREA FORECAST, SOUTHEAST ENGLAND, VALID JUL 03/0600Z TO 03/1500Z. MET-SITUATION: AT 06Z, A LIGHT TO MOD STABLE ENE FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WIND WRNG: ISOL SEA COT, MAINLY FM 12Z, 20-25KT GUSTS. Heathrow 30% chance - EGLL 030453Z 0306/0412 VRB04KT CAVOK BECMG 0311/0314 09010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0321/0401 09015G25KT 5000 +SHRA TSRA BECMG 0403/0406 24010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0404/0406 9000 BKN012 Temporary from 03 at 21 UTC to 04 at 01 UTC Wind 15 kt from the East with gusts up to 25 kt Visibility: 5000 m heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain Gatwick 40% chance - EGKK 030503Z 0306/0412 VRB04KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 0312/0315 09010KT PROB40 TEMPO 0320/0324 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BECMG 0403/0406 23010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0405/0408 8000 BKN010 Temporary from 03 at 20 UTC to 03 at 24 UTC Wind 15 kt from the East with gusts up to 25 kt Visibility: 3000 m heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain
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Well the Heathrow TAF forecast says Thunderstorms for 8am to 12pm tomorrow, at 4000ft. I'd say it's probably going to be a Kent/London Clipper with the majority staying out over the Channel. Very tired but what's the wind direction doing, I was flying earlier and it was heading from the east. PROB30 TEMPO 0207/0211 6000 TSRA SCT010 BKN040CB
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Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...
Robbie Garrett replied to Methuselah's topic in Regional
So is this an exact science and could 38.5*C have been toppled today if it wasn't for the cloud? Looking at the METAR's for Heathrow it toppled by 4*C before rising again. If that 4*C drop didn't happen would 36.7*C have become 40.7*C? EGLL 011020Z 15016KT CAVOK 34/13 Q1011 NOSIG EGLL 011050Z 17015KT CAVOK 32/12 Q1011 NOSIG EGLL 011120Z 16010KT CAVOK 30/14 Q1011 -
30°c at 0950 Local 32°c at 1050 Local 34°c at 1150 Local 35°c at 1250 Local 36°c at 1350 Local 37°c at 1450 Local EGLL 100750Z 07003KT 5000 HZ FEW070 27/16 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 100850Z 16003KT 9000 FEW070 30/16 Q1017 NOSIG EGLL 100950Z 04002KT CAVOK 32/15 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 101020Z 16004KT 120V210 CAVOK 32/14 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 101050Z 14005KT 100V310 CAVOK 34/14 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 101150Z 13010KT 100V160 CAVOK 35/14 Q1015 NOSIG EGLL 101250Z 14009KT 050V190 CAVOK 36/10 Q1015 NOSIG EGLL 101350Z 20012KT CAVOK 37/06 Q1015 NOSIG
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First 30C - where and when?
Robbie Garrett replied to h2005__uk__'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
July 1st - 34*C - Heathrow/Kew Gardens and St James Park -
July 2015 CET forecasts
Robbie Garrett replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
20.1*C -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards
Robbie Garrett replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I am your work neighbour it seems. -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards
Robbie Garrett replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Same. Right, slow start this year. Lets hope for a big one. -
Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14
Robbie Garrett replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Almost 4 years to the day the models picked up on the dramatic changes, they again pick up on all the signals for another possible early and cold start. Could this be a rinse/repeat or better? 2014 15th 12z run 2010 15th 12z Run Oh and guess what else it did? The same as todays. Defaulted to Atlantic... But Santa Clause had other ideas that year.