Team Jo

Evening all - hello, hi! ? not entirely sure where the despair is coming from. OH WAIT it’s because it’s not microcasting to snow on your doorstep. Guess what! There’s a thread for that! It’s just not this one. Please understand when you post something off topic that provokes a response, then lots of people reply, it makes this thread incredibly difficult to fathom. Even to those who have been around for lots of winters. In the space of my journey home I think I have scrolled through five pages of woe. Joy. Despondency. Joy. Despair. At the rate some are going, you’re overlooking the fact we are about to hit a cold spell at all. In fact you might it whilst nitpicking every chart out to t+240...which surely sucks all the fun out of it, no?

It’s one run. Let’s all just keep calm! Discussion around what’s happening on TWO is mudtracking out of context commentary in here, if you were a complete novice like many new people just guests browsing on here are the last three pages make very little sense. GFS amazing, slider on slider off, ECM rain. All offer a variation on a theme. look at the trend and compare like for like. Don’t panic! It’s too early for shouting.

Guys can we try and keep off the one liners etc? As fast as I’m moving posta and pming people to explain why I’m moving posts another six pop up and the 18z hasn’t even started yet, and I know everyone is dead excited and everything but please help us out and post in the right place? Pleeeeeeeeeease ?

^^ditto bbc forecasts, metoffoce, app forecasts, magical weather stone forecasts.. all have their place.. it’s just not this thread. thank yooooooou!

Huge number of people reading this evening *waves* hello hello! Welcome. If you’re new here (or have been here a while) just a general reminder that questions like ‘will it snow in my garden?’ Are best answered in the regional threads which are full of local weather experts and enthusiasts. There’s some really knowledgable posters in them that will help you with your detailed location specific questions. If you have a ‘feeling’ or are just unhappy with the output your post will be most welcome in the Moans Ramps and Banter thread. Ditto animated gifs of dying snowmen, game of thrones etc etc. The thread is moving really fast again tonight and I imagine it will continue until the pub run so rather than having delete and hide five million posts and upset a load of people please consider the best destination for your posts. please remember we aren’t trying to censor or limit the conversation. There’s only a handful of us to try and keep things ticking over and when 300 people all want snow answers on one thread which is for technical discussion, the technical discussion gets a bit diluted which makes people who have spent time giving analysis a bit peeved when their carefully constructed post is buried in other stuff. aaaaaand GO! ?

Nearly 300 people reading at the moment. On a schoolnight too! All kinds of solutions being offered up right now for late next week, just worthwhile considering that there is quite a lot of contradictory posting which is pretty confusing if you’ve not spent much time in here before, so be kind, and don’t get too hung up on one run

Christalive. Models. Please. Objective and Non emotional posts. Substantiate your comments. And don’t be unkind. If you take issue with a post then either report it or take it to PM.

And if you’re posting a moan about the content of the thread or the models, you’re posting it in the wrong place. I think we had four episodes of the atmosphere turning sour in here last week because the models weren’t showing cold preferences run after run. And now we have falling snow as I type. Can’t recall this being a nailed on thing 7 days ago, next week probably won’t be any different.

Aaaaand it’s one run. moans and one liners have their own thread, please use it if you’re writing off winter off for December/your lifetime/infinity based on tonight’s pub run. At the very least if you’re going to post one frame and with no comment or a Comment with no support other than a tingly feeling in your toes, expect your post to be moved

Folks. Let’s be Nice eh? There’s a significant undertone of sniping and stroppiness tonight that is really against what we’re all about here. It’s nobodys fault the models aren’t showing what they were last night. Statistical diagrams of predicted conditions don’t care about your feelings. Please, PLEASE try and think about your post before hitting reply. Overly emotive and snippy and overly reactive on One day’s runs and the infinitesimal dissection of one sodding ‘shortwave’s’ position is wearing a bit thin. I genuinely get the excitement and disappointment that comes with the rollercoaster that is model watching, but let’s just be considerate to one another.

Morning cold hunters! Likely to be very busy in here today given the output. May I gently remind you that there’s numerous threads for historical musings, met office forecasts, moans, regionals for the IMBY questions. If you’re new and want to learn there is also a learning section which has a couple of articles describing UK snow setups and what’s required. Not trying to be difficult or stem the enthusiasm - far from it, but just want to help the chat flow...... Enjoy the cold air today!

Well I’m excited. There’s over 120 people online tonight and I imagine a lot more will probably pop up over the coming days. Just one thing please -If you’re posting charts without comment please can you just give a couple of lines or personal analysis to give the post some context. If you’re new or don’t know what you’re looking at then a post with a map and bunch of squiggly colours and no comment could be something my toddler has drawn. Don’t assume everyone reading has read the model handbook.

Can I ask we keep BBC discussion in the relevant thread please I think we can comfortably say that there is a significant degree of uncertainty beyond t72 at the moment, so next week is anyone’s guess....

Aaaaaaaand before I spend my Friday night PMing and deleting posts, maybe we can get this back on topic eh? The validity of LRF can probably be discussed in another thread. ta!

Can I just pop in and say that we had very similar ‘winter’s over’ commentary not two days ago, then a staggering pub run with everyone on the cusp of bulk buying salt and now we are back to despair, all in the space of 48 hours. As tempting as it is to get emotionally invested into these outputs, given next week is still all rather interchangeable depending on the model, I’d suggest not hanging on every frame of every run.... as the wise have probably said, the models don’t set the weather. The weather (and some mind boggling statistical data) sets the models. It’s going to be a very very long and frustrating winter otherwise! Of course if you need to vent your frustrations there is the Moans and Ramps thread just a couple of clicks away...

Gosh 113 browsing, There’s a lot riding on the ECM tonight! Before it rolls, just a gentle reminder that there’s the Moan/Ramp thread and local regional threads for chewing the fat over if it’ll snow in your back garden or sobbing into your horlicks - depending on your preference.

Just above us at the moment.... Oh go on......

Hmmm. Things seem to be pepping up in NW France, and we have just gone from almost entirely blue sky, to cloud, and what feels like a bit of destabilizing kicking in. I suppose I'm being greedy, it's been very warm here today!

Some great photos coming through folks!

Just driving the small to Nursery and you can clearly see the moisture evaporating up from the fields and into the clouds. (Yes my windscreen is filthy, sorry!) We had a corker here last night with constant strobing and some immense CGs and I've been up since about 2am but it was too good to not miss. I will be very interested to see if we can pull anything off a bit later as I'm working locally for once today - not looked at any charts yet though... IMG_0348.MOV

Pretty impressive strobing happening just to my west/northwest. Totally silent too

I'm not expecting anything here until after dusk I don't think... besides it's way too early to call it! As as an aside and I've not read the entire thread yet, so someone else might have mentioned, It's three years exactly since we had a corking MCS this neck of the woods.

Just riding back from work on the Train and it's pretty uncomfortable. Lets see what this evening brings. It's milky cloud with haze at the moment coming out of London. I'm feeling lucky though!

Some absolutely corking CGs dropping from this one, managed to get my little one to sleep so I've actually been able to film some of it! Some serious height tops in the back edge of it too. I would so love to have a bit more after nightfall but I think I've probably been quite lucky today as it is, we've caught about four or five cells as they've passed through.

We're right in the middle of the cell conveyor belt it seems, although the more interesting g development seems to be happening just as everything passes over us. That said, the last one that did I'm fairly sure had a little bit of rotation in it, and lots of scud! Unfortunately my tiny copilot trod on a bee so we had to administer first aid and Percy pigs so hopefully we will be better prepared for the next one.....