Gavin Hannah

chionomaniac, on 15 October 2012 - 13:46 , said: Which stratosphere thread are you following? I certainly haven't said - that is called jumping to the wrong conclusion! I did say "Signs of.."? Anyway, you are right, probably would have been better to word it as "slight temp rise". Or "stratospheric warming", without the sudden. Either way, I certainly never stated out and out SSW, merely a hint of one.

Not pinning my hopes on it alone, more like, adding it to "The Epic Winter Box of Stuff Required For An Epic Winter.".

So, looking good, add 6 weeks for time lag... that would take us to start of December.

For those not following the Strato' thread.. promising signs of a SSW event beginning.

I reckon there are at least 6 buzzards around where I live. I constantly see them perched on the trees and phone poles out the back or gliding low over my hen runs while out there.

Once we catch 07', the next target is 2000 Avg.

That photograph is proof that we are all living in SimCity!

Awaiting the 12Z with bated breath now......

It's that damned low pressure.!! The overall pattern is still there, we just need the models to send it south and east. 06Z 00Z The 06Z has reverted back to more like the 18Z.

Ok, option added... "A bit of Everything". Votes can be recast if members wish.

Only 8K off your avg of 160K that you thought was required to catch 07. Not bad. If we can catch 07 by next weekend that would be a result.

I will be waiting until the 24th of Dec before I call this one lol.

Ok, so I'm rebooting this poll, but with a twist. I'm inviting everyone to pick their prediction for the upcoming winter. It can be a wild guess or gut hunch, but I'd prefer it to be more of a forecast based vote (If you have a forecast) giving members an opportunity to see what all those with the experience are forecasting for the upcoming winter. Secondly, a poll to see what members on here desire for the upcoming winter weather.

There was a snow event on the 30th Ocotober (I think it was the 30th). Brought a meter of snow to the peaks of cairngorm etc, but as was the pattern last year, it was gone within the week. I do also remember Madden jumping on that event as a precursor to his "Epic" winter.

A dusting of white stuff on the likes of Cairngorm and Glencoe mountain today.

The HP developing to the North East could bring some very decent high ground snow. The low pressure moving in at the end is an unwelcome sight. Could it shift away to the south east? I hope so, I would quite easily settle for some quieter weather for a couple of weeks after the misery of the this years washout.

*Cough Cough* Can anyone say blocking pattern? This is from the 00Z Run . And these are from last nights 18Z Run. Notice the similar pattern emerging of HP just off South West Greenland. This is a pattern that "Hopefully" will continue to develop. I know they say don't compare one run from the next, but as it's within 7 days, it's worth keeping an eye on. The 00Z run really develops the HP system to bring in a lovely ridge of blocking to our north, putting us under an Easterly. Now don't go getting your hopes up too much, this trend could very well just disappear, BUT, if it does develop, depending on the specifics, we could get some decent high ground snowfall. One to keep an eye out for, and an example of what I would very much like to see come the winter.

Hmm, high ground only. Anything below 1000m is likely to be sleet or very cold rain.

Nope. Dont think it is. And at that far out, it will be gone next run. Part 4 already! I think alot of the excitement is down to the fact that no one knows if we are in a new period of colder than avg winters (More frequently) or not. I think after the period from the late 80's through to the early 2000's winter became a bit boring. It was more a case of.. "Will we get snow this winter?". Now it's more like ... "How much snow and how cold will it get?"

We are half way through the month now and I didn't think we would get this close to the 2007 plot. I thought it was a bit ambitious to catch it by now, but, it's done remarkably well.

Some more good Ice gains too. Heading over to the Arctic Ice thread to check for figures.

National Grid have published their winter outlook document. They don't go into much detail regards weather but they do summarize what they are being told. http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/623BA857-784F-4EFC-B16C-97EF37CE530D/56932/WinterOutlookReport2012Final.pdf

Ice is also forming around the Siberian coastline now.

The first bit of litter on Mars.... ^^^^^^

Can see clear ice forming around the Siberian coastline which is good news!