Allseasons-Si

@Steve Murr was you driving whilst taking photos here's hoping that the gfs switches to the ecm solution on the 18z soon but i feel that it will be in the morning before showing that.

216 the point i was trying to make was amplification downstream with upstream ridge ahead of it into Iceland,the ECM doesn't quite make it but looks good on the face of it, @KTtom,that Scuasian block is good for a holding pattern for later down the line.

At 168 and the ECM is amplified downstream,things should open up from here IE:-block into Iceland.

What's that gate called again... at 144 Oh!!!,SLIDERGATE

Urals block opening up on some of the ext gefs ens certainly some interest in the outputs to come no doubt nice to see @chionomaniac posting again,welcome back Ed

Incidentally the Scuasian block is a tad stronger though Blue 12z 234 v's 06z 240.

Wet snow/sleet falling here and getting heavier i will keep you informed if it turns to snow proper.

Now,where have i seen that chart before?

I was watching the news earlier and a weatherman(can't remember his name) explained why the thunder is louder when it is snowing in summer the thunderstorms/clouds are a lot higher up because of the heat and hence you don't hear the thunder as loud unless it is a positive cg strike of course in winter the cloudbase is much lower,it makes sense really that you heard loud thunder and them in Edinburgh this morning.

The control looks good at 192 but again...someone stole the cold uppers all speculative this far out in terms of uppers.

Isn't that the 12z/18z mean in comparison? control at 138... looks better all the same.

Yes a mere observation for the newbies,this not aimed at you @Tim Bland,ten days is a long way out in model terms and never come to fruition stick to the reliable 5-6 days as it's so much better on the ticker there is still lots to be resolved with the undercutting scenarios if it even happens,this is the crucial timeframe.

Beggars can't be choosers i would sooner it go under than over,gives us better prospects going forward.

Evening everyone firstly i would just like to say thanks to the excellent post's in here again today/this evening and there has been some interesting reads A look at the EPS clusters,i have saved a few from previous days to now to see where we are heading Dec 1st,2nd and today's,we lose the Atlantic ridge to be replaced with Atlantic trough but on the latest it looks more undercutty under the heights to the NE but will the Atlantic be too strong?,we are still (and forecast to be) north of the jet for the time being the EPS at day ten 500mb and MLSP anomalies(rotated for better view),this is not a bad position on the face of it,again trough SW of the block with possible undercut and a cross polar link up with the Scurasian ridge and Pacific ridge,my only two penneth qualm is we need more lower heights into Europe And now for some more good news,we are in neg territory values in both the NAO/AO and looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future so to sum up,yes the Atlantic looks like it is gearing up a notch and we have quite a big block to our NE but who will win the battle? will we see an undercut? will systems deflect NE to allow pressure to build from the SW? knife edge stuff at the moment,great,....more model dramas as always and it is never straight forward unless it is zonal finally i am glad that some have seen snow today including me with 1inch on the ground earlier and it's only the 4th Dec oh!,i am late looking at the 18z,best dash P.S,didn't you think that the ecm 216 chart resembled an....

An inch of snow fell this morning but was already melting when i left work at 2pm Had huge splats of wet snow earlier this evening on the car windscreen as i was driving to the local shop from this shower that dropped from the NW then halted over my area for about two hours and now it's moving back N,def in the pivot of the low also there is more of a wintry look on the PPN rain/snow NW radar. in fact,just looking at the radar loop,i wonder if that band in Lincolnshire will hit us?

The 18z makes mincemeat of the trough out west thanks to the omnipresent block to our SE/E game on.

Been lightly snowing here for the past half hour or so,of the wet variety though and it's not heavy enough to settle.

Yes NWS i am with you on that one but something feels different to me about this winter that Scurasian block(i maybe wrong) will not allow that atlantic in past the UK and i think that these lows/troughs out west will slide under the block meanwhile,wet snow is falling here

Thanks for this Mulzy the EPS clusters are back online... WHOAH!!! eps day ten... WHOAH!!! blocky!!! blocky!!! catchy monkey!!!

Are we about to see some influence from the east...? ECM at 144 cold air marching west into southern Scandi and that Scurasian high is further west. BTW,had some wet snow here earlier.

I am surprised no one posted the 12z ICON with a cold pool of air building out east with trough maybe disrupting S/SE but i do like the gfs 12z with that arctic high...yummy!!!

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There is snow settling there now.

That block to our E/NE is determining the weather ATM and it will provide so many outcomes/scenarios across the NWP'S for a good while yet with a holding pattern,whether troughs disrupt SE under the block is one scenario or will the lows ride over the top(alternative scenario)? the UK hangs on a balance regarding this we are at the mercy that if the heights are not strong enough or north enough to disrupt the lows/troughs SE enough then the high will sink SE it is a give or take at the moment and i couldn't tell you what is going to happen ATM.

Anyway is this the regional thread to see if it will snow in my back garden in the N,S,E or west? this is the model output thread am i right,there is so much clutter in here that you would think it wasn't OK,back to the models and i can see amplification returning on this run.... 18z at 156 v's 12z 162 thanks to the downstream trough off the eastern seaboard,the more amplified that is the less it becomes phased with the UK trough.