CRACKPOT

What - frost! Seriously - you consider it good because we have had a few frosts? Crikey, you have low expectations. Where did I say one forecast? It is the current forecast and where it comes into the reliable time frame - so what was 'predicted' and looked good is not going to come to fruition. The trajectory of the fronts is different to those of a couple of days ago so don't give me one forecast and I have given up. This 'one' forecast is showing the next few days after this front goes through as not being as cold. That will be a fact. 7°C & 8°C are not cold - they are just above the January average. JK

Well things must have changed overnight looking at the latest TV forecasts this morning. Tuesday the low comes in from a SW - NE trajectory - we would be expecting it to come in at a more shallow angle. This brings milder air right across all but Northern areas - so no snow on those charts - and also what was shown during the week. I hope they are in the wrong but they are operating on the latest data. No snow for majority of Wales on anything this morning. I know time to go, but this winter is now beginning to disappoint, I have not seen a flake yet!! JK

The way the wind is by us both I don't think I would risk it - could be dangerous- admittedly you would be unlucky to be hit by one - but why chance it? JK

This wind is tremendously strong. Got to be close to 70mph gusts up here. Noise is incredible, bins flying around the street - and not food bins - large rubbish bins - bit frightening. Incredibly mild though unless you are in one of the strong gusts. Just imagine what it was like in Scotland last night - we are quite a few mph short of some of their gust strengths. Liking the look of colder incursions appearing in a lot more of the outputs next couple of weeks. JK

Exactly my despondent point of view yesterday. One third of Winter has already passed us by and a couple of weeks coming up with no snow and we will be half way through winter with little chance of a decent cold breakout. At the end of the day we are an island and all our dreams of a cold snowy Winter seem to be that - a dream. South Wales is badly positioned along with our suffering South West England friends - we are right next to the Atlantic which for us is the winter killer. Lets hope at some stage dreams come true, but they are not for the foreseeable ..... JK

Gone up to a barmy 5.2°C now - does not even feel cold outside. Not a lot of PPN around later either by the looks of it - this has been a real damp squib from what was being said late last night and even earlier today. :smiliz23: :smiliz23: :smiliz23: JK

Given up any hope of anything at all never mind any covering - temperature has dropped to 3.9°C last hour - but watching the latest Beeb forecast nothing much coming around South Wales and next 3 or 4 days nothing of note either. Warnings for........ don't know, be aware of disappointment it should state! JK

Raining here now....... JK

The way the day is going so far it certainly looks like overnight tonight is the best chance for snow - and possibility this will then keep the temperature down and that snow could stay around for a couple of days. Not sure as I keep saying of much south of the heads of the valleys today but as the afternoon goes on and the cold air undercuts later that could give what most of us what we want. JK

It's 4.6°C here in Bargoed Whiskers and we are only 2 miles apart! JK

I think you'll find watching approaching infrequent showers falling as rain reasonably boring! Still hoping for some upgrades in the short term - change of track etc might be helpful. JK

Currently 4.2°C - temperature climbing quite quickly so unless evaporative cooling takes place and dips the temperature no snow below the tops of the valleys at least. I hope you are right Keith and the winds take over to drop the temperature later but I for one was hoping this would arrive as progged to do so by around 8am - colder air still around then but the front is obviously bringing in the milder air a bit further than anticipated. Looking at the next few days as well, grey and boring comes to mind. Do not see it being that cold - just chilly. JK

Not looking good up here - temperature gone up in last 3 hours from -1.9°C to +2.9°C - up 3°C - so not a good trend up in the valleys for this rain coming in to fall as snow. As the front comes in I expect another degree or two to upwards on the temperature - it does seem to be struggling a bit like I said last night to move inland - but I am not that hopeful. Resorting to finger crossing for some snow later, very technical method Anyone awake down West Wales able to confirm temperatures and if ppn has started? JK

Hi Guys, It's probably going to be one of those disappointing events with wet snow to start with then just copious amounts of rain. It seems traditional in these events recently we only get the rain in South Wales - and it's always Mid Wales northwards that get snow. There always seems to warmer air mixing in until it has gone further north. We need it to start stalling which is when we know the cold air is having the better of any battles. So many variables need to be in place to get some white stuff and they do not quite seem to be all there at the moment. Think this winter is slowly becoming a disappointment with a whole month (1/3rd) already gone! Lets hope the cold air sees this through. JK

Elevation is going to be key for snow tonight - and further north with elevation. I think it's anything over 250m and mid Wales will have a nice covering until early morning when the rain has kicked in. Any points further south will get sleety showers at best. I am just below the snow line here in Bargoed which is a bit gutting - could do with a rain respite though which is not happening in the immediate future. JK

So because Gibby states that it obviously must be true then? There is model chaos past T96 so nothing available to confirm that update. He obviously comments on what is currently shown but this changes from day to day. Wintry charts will occur because the spread currently is unconvincing of a static pattern - bit more modelling needed and probably midweek before anything can be firmed up. Just because non-wintry is showing does not make it the correct scenario. JK

-and he also states 'likely' followed by a return to warmer temperatures - he didn't say a definite and he is also on about a period after T192 to T268 !! (after days 8 - 12). The fact he mentions a cold snap between 8-12 days time is good but as has been said on here many times Twitter, with it's short / limited statements, you never have a full picture and this is generally open to interpretation. Definitely signs of colder weather appearing they just have to creep into the reliable but we have to be patient........ JK

With the low pressure over the pole the ECM is less favorable for prolonged cold? Lots of fascinating charts around and a great start to Winter - oh I forgot, we are not in Winter yet!

It came down for our area heavily between 2am and 3:30 - in bucket loads - it accumulated to about 3 inches by 3:30 - I was up watching it due to a problematic young neighbour, police turning up with dogs - couldn't sleep - woken up at 2am to an amazing sight! Was a great watch with one policeman being dragged on his back by one of the dogs because he slipped in the snow - funny as hell! JK

Just came from Nantyglo through Brynmawr and the snow is making the roads very dodgy. JK

What snow?? JK

Blizzard 'esque' up here in Bargoed - 4 minutes and going white and blowing - stunning how this happened so quickly!!! Nice to see even if it is the only one we will get today. As I said, stunning! JK

Wind and cold air - thats all! JK

I agree and that is what I posted yesterday. Although what has happened in the past has no real bearing on what is coming up - it does realistically because the 'pattern' is repeated - and they follow the same track as previous. We always get a more southern progression closer to time and that would mean a lot more of the South of England will also be missing out. I hope it has more of a northerly push than previous - but not too much (but enough!) because we would then have milder air mixing in and snow would become increasingly marginal. Still a long way to go and upgrades can still happen even within 12 hours. JK

Hi Guys, Looks like the majority of Wales are going to miss out on the precipitation from the latest updates. Hope an upgrade puts us into the firing line but needs toes and fingers crossed! JK