Ben Sainsbury

Agreed if we look at comparisons for 7pm, between the Netweather NMM model and Sat Charts. The cloud is actually moving through very slightly little quicker than forecasted.

Very dull day today here, very hopeful about the upcoming few days. I know others might disagree but from personal experience GFS and BBC in general under-cook temperatures by a degree or 2. I think we could see 23'c - 24'c at some point over the coming few days.

I get you now! That's normally the issue in these setups we can have large CAPE values showing, but being under the influence of high pressure and lack of moisture can be an issue. I would agree that isolated thunderstorms have the possibility of forming, using Friday for example. We have sufficient diurnal heating, a few convergence zones developing and the introduction of a cold front from the NW, I think we may see storms form from West Midlands and later in the day transfer SE. Must take caution but details at this stage are uncertain but using merely as an example. Certainly as you say as pressure begins to decrease late weekend, early next week we could see something a little more widespread. EDIT: Oh and I forgot, though not model discussion, Skew-T's will give us a better idea closer to the time.

I see this being said a lot and you're not wrong. But is the NMM model known for overdoing CAPE values too? Because from what I see the NMM is showing the same if not greater values than GFS. And what do you mean about the atmosphere looking too stable? I don't see any problems.

I’d kind of have to disagree with you, there definitely was some modest instability, steep (ish) lapse rates, wind shear not particularly important in regards the amount of showers that form, moreso the structure and longevity of showers. The main reason for lack of activity was no proper trigger today... The trough really just moved north too slowly, didn’t give enough opportunity for a larger mass of showers to develop, no convergence zone had formed until the evening over Reading etc, hence why the only showers formed across CS England.

Yeah, still a couple hours of sun. The batch of storms in N France formed in connection of a trough moving northwards. This should initiate a few showers across south midlands over the next hour or two (what we're seeing already) though nothing substantial. Still some half decent convection to the NE of here.

Not far off lol See I always thought this was dependent on cloud cover, unless I'm completely wrong. Had a peak at the Netwx Model for same time frame, seems to be half of that of GFS lol. Guess I am wrong all learning!

Absolute stormgasm charts on the GFS 12z! These are the charts I live for aha, could be some very active buggers should any form!

Don't mind If I do. Under high pressure tho

To me what seems each time is that the excess cloud cover have proved to have not broken quick enough/moved away quick enough. Seems to be a recurring theme to me. CAPE amounts have never looked particularly decent at any point over the last fortnight. It's been a shame because whilst we've had a lack of CAPE, there have been impressive levels of DLS and SRH which if there was any CAPE to tap into, there would be some impressive storms. Hopefully next week we can develop good amounts of CAPE from strong diurnal heating and higher dewpoints etc and should see more lightning activity.

Indeed, Sat24 showing some breaks in the cold coming from the SE. Should expect main bulk of the showers to form in the next hour before intensifying and moving westwards.

Agreed and to admit whilst the uncertainty remains for tonight into tomorrow morning, I haven't been this excited in a long time... Whilst CAPE levels aren't particularly big by any means, we are looking at some significant values of DLS across CS England earlier tomorrow morning and SRH values of 300 to maybe 500 moreso across the East Midlands. When we see low CAPE values and high DLS and SRH values, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see any significant lightning activity however I do expect some very well structured and organised thunderstorms albeit very very isolated. In any organised storms, there is a chance for multicelluar and supercelluar characteristics given the large vertical shear values in excess of 40knts. These may bring some nice photogenic skies as we move towards rush hour tomorrow morning, however these may bring a risk of some very severe wind gusts, medium sized hail and a few funnel clouds and possibly a tornado. I personally think ESTOFEX are underplaying the risk for much of Southern UK, however these may be analysed within the next ESTOFEX forecast. Whilst there are large amounts of uncertain and possible isolated nature of storms, I can understand why the likes of ConvectiveWeather are reluctant to issue anything of a higher risk. EDIT: Still an amateur opinion, so please correct me if you want to do so!

Been watching the radar for areas around Exeter, today they have experienced 7 hours of moderate to heavy snow equivalent to minimum dark blue/green echoes on the radar. Must be some exceptional accumulations down there.

Here in Keynsham, we've been stuck on the edge of the heavier snow all day, a covering of dandruff here whereas areas slightly south and west have been blanketed, not again.

Nothing literally, the ground has a white shade as such but nothing of note.

Netweather NMM model currently has a really good grasp on current positioning and intensity of the snow over the south. As we head pass midnight we should already see marked increases in intensity and more so into the realms of early morning tomorrow. Hopefully it can bring the goodies to Bristol!

Powdery snow here in Bristol now, hopefully we can get a thin layering of powder snow before some much larger flaked wet snow tonight to bring some decent accumulations!

Yes you could say that, the mild days have brought the ground temperatures much above zero, however this snow and cold rain falling onto the ground is likely to decrease the ground temperature and into tonight along with much colder air, ground temps are unlikely to get above 0'c and snow will readily settle overnight.

The Netweather NMM Model seems to agree with this very well. Lapse between Sunday 00:00 - Monday 00:00 Snow.avi

Frome is about to get pelted, could expect 3-4cm an hour from that if it all settled!

Whilst we have the potential for snow on Saturday and Sunday; storm lovers don't write today off! Check this image by the Netweather NMM model, certainly the potential for a few storms today developing around M4 and moving northwards. Current showers should intensify over course of the day.

Large changes in areas of interest overnight... Now appears that cloud cover is going to be much less extensive than yesterday, therefore more diurnal heating and more storms should form over the afternoon. Main area of interest today is in connection with a large convergence zone stretching across the Bristol Channel and along the M4, therefore any thunderstorm activity is likely to develop here and move N/NW'wards. Forecast Map Below:

Disappointing day as a whole, a few potent showers but nothing of a note, showers that did form was in conjunction with peak instability values and diurnal heating. Main reason for today not playing out is as a result of far too much cloud cover, temperatures didn't reach values expected. Tomorrow follows a similar story as today with something a little more potent possible across the far south towards the end of tomorrow. General consensus is that any showers will form in connection with any diurnal heating and a convergence zone which looks to set up across East Midlands so that would be my focus for tomorrow. The odd rumble of thunder possible w/ small hail but overall severity risk is slim similar of which to today. Don't have access to my forecast map right now, but a general isolated risk extending across much of England tomorrow. However a risk of some storms (fairly elevated in nature) making its way across the channel later tomorrow (9pm onwards), though these are likely to die out from cool SST's given low bases.

A quick review of what I had forecasted yesterday, Amounts of CAPE look good for this time of year, up to 800J/kg Continuation of theme for steep lapse rates tomorrow Showers/Storms dependent on whether cloud clover can clear. Overall severity risk and organisation of storms look on the low side. Expect: Small Hail, Heavy Rainfall, Occasional Lightning & Strong Wind Gusts. Have included a risk map below: (Favorable areas South Midlands into South Wales)

Advanced Outlook: As it stands for many area in CS England and Midlands have a good chance for some decent thunderstorm activity over Thursday. Current CAPE levels looks to be the highest we have seen all year, approaching 600J/kg of SB Cape. This combined with steep lapse rates looks to set off a few weakly electrified thunderstorms. DLS, low dewpoints and relatively low SRH looks apparent for Thursday, reducing the risk of any real severity in any heavy showers or thunderstorms. Still the potential is there!