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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Check out those rainfall rates at the core, approaching 100mm per hour! -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Gust front like feature on the back edge now too! A beauty of lightning strike to my West. Rumble of Thunder too. -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just saw a distant flash from Keynsham too. Very dark base and beginning to see a decent structure on it too. To add strong inflow into storm on back-edge looks interesting. -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Have a visual on the storm to the north over North Bristol/Gloucester, very dark base and can see hail failing but still difficult to see. -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Really hoping this shower doesn't completely die before it reaches my area! Ahh! -
SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Regional
To confirm from a personal perspective it is indeed sleeting here in Bristol. I think the SE are in a fantastic position for snow, with evening approaching, colder air undercutting quickly and readily turning to sleet and snow across SW, West Midlands and South Wales, all the best! Plus the front has a long way to go before reaching the SE could be in time for rush hour! -
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Whilst comparing the radar to the BBC graphics seems that the radar is an hour behind, could give us an extra bit of hope. Me personally I think the SE are in a fantastic position for snow, with evening approaching, colder air approaching and readily turning slightly in our area. -
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Good website to keep track of latest temps in area: http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ Where I'm situated (Bristol) 3'c right now, dewpoints still a little too high tho! -
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Latest Netweather radar update suggests what the majority of us have been saying, quite sleety here again tho mostly rain. -
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Although raining moderately heavy here, a few sleety bits too! Doesn't feel too cold yet tho! -
Surely if the Met Office was confident enough that it was going to be a rain only event, even if there was a little snow then why would that even warrant a weather warning? Must be something they see that we don't?
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I must admit further good consistency between the ECM and GFS up to T120, and thereafter we have the low moving off the east coast of US. Given previous experiences of the GFS overdoing the deepness of low pressure systems, I'm wondering if we're going to see a prolonged period of cold settled weather, (A week or two) as the high doesn't seem in much worry to move. The setup is really not too disimilar to what we saw at the beginning of December. Forecasts at that point we're for an increasing cold end to December and look where it ended up. Be interesting it see how this setup begins to change over the next week or two.
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Not to get any hopes here but I think we're forgetting about the "marginal" snow event that could take place on the evening of New Years Day. As a matter of fact this event has been consistently modelled over the last few days so definitely something we should keep on eye on. However marginal events like these are extremely difficult to predict even 3 days away. This event really depends on the timing, the sooner we can -5 850hpa temps the better, but then the closer we move towards night the colder the temps. Something to keep an eye on anyway. The first set show the 850hpa temps and precipitation type on GFS 6z: This next set shows the 850hpa temps and precipitation type on GFS (P) 6z: And as bobbydog has just indicated the GFS has support from GEFS members too. What timing to post at the same time! aha