Ben Sainsbury

We almost have an outflow situation in the Bristol Channel! (Backbuilding) I'm not quite sure how to describe it!

Some precipitation near me, looks like something is developing to my SW tho. Some quite rapid developments to my west!

That's right and currently where the showers exist is where the trough is. Hopefully the trough will edge further in time to be in place with the heat and convergence zones.

Plenty of towering cumulus right now, sun been blocked out!

Only been put up 6 months ago hehe;), anyway some evidence of possible showers developing to our South across CS England along a convergence line.

Always a nice thing to see when your out chilling the garden! Come on instability!

When combining the current Sea Pressure Charts and Convergence Zone, I have drew on the radar where these currently exist. Great correlation currently. (Black = Trough, Green = Convergence)

And I accept that this is where my confusion comes into place. But then again this will be something that will always happen, as everyone has different perspectives on a forecast etc. Apologies.

That is exactly what some of the models are hinting at too. For Example: NetWx Model

It's certainly not fair to say names, but in regards to differences in todays and tomorrows risk there isn't much to say. Defined convergence areas, high areas of instability, a trough sat to the west of the UK. Only difference I see is instability sat over more Central areas.

I don't understand this community about how yesterday storms were very few and far between and yet everyone was saying "Oh tomorrow looks to be a lot better" and again today we see a lot of storm forecasts indicative of isolated storms and again people say, "Oh tomorrow showers seem to be more widespread". But to me it's annoying where people will say that the following day will be better for storms without valid evidence, almost like false hope, a recurring theme to me. Personally I don't see anything better about tomorrow whatsoever, setup pretty similar to today.

Very well predicted by the Netwx model, should expect to see showers form east of this current shower.

We have kick off nr Yeovil! Definitely a loaded gun sorta cell. 5 minutes from nothing to lightning!

How come we are already receiving UV Levels of 8, surely this is unusual for this time of year as normally these are often rare and will only occur in late June?

More cumulus bubbling up here to my South, and a brief second of the sun being blocked out!

That is exactly what I was pointing at! Let's see what happens!

However we saw showers develop over NW England as a result of strong dirnual heating and a convergence zone. For us Southerners, all this CAPE has built up throughout the day, the convergence zone is expected to form about 6,7,8pm. If I'm right theres a line of cumulus stretching from Tiverton to Bournemouth, this could spark off possibly over Salisbury?

I'm not sure why everyone is calling this a bust already? We all knew these showers in England wouldn't initiate till later, it's patience. Then again I did hear that the critical temperature needed to start convection off was 26'c so ya know?

To be honest I'm really not worried by the small amount of showers right now over Southern areas, it's all meant to spark off this evening according to the Netwx forecasts.

On the topic of storm chasing, although slightly off topic but there was a programme on TV, not sure what channel but was called "Inside the Mega Twister" based on the El Reno Tornado on May 31st 2013, the best tornado documentary I have ever seen. I suggest you all check it out if your as passionate as me. Anyhow sorry for being off topic!

Details far from certain but with Sunday, having potential for my area I definitely see potential for CS England into the SW and South Midlands, CAPE looking high, Plenty of Dirnual Heating and a defined convergence zone over CS England, moving NW'wards through the day. Definitely the chance of a funnel cloud originally within red box too on Sunday between 12-3pm. Current ideas are as below. Probably too premature. Will update later tomorrow.

Oh you are a funny one!

Tomorrow does look rather uninspiring, but could be the odd shower around.

Not too sure mate, I'll look at the charts later and will let you know!

And here is the beauty over Taunton seen from Bristol! (Very faint just over top of houses)