throwoff

Fingers crossed

The 12Z still fancies a load of snow this afternoon into tonight, I am going to call it now, nothing. Bring on the warm!

A complete write off it seems for most of us. shame would have liked one last gasp of winter.

I think for Kent we are really looking at tomorrow night now. We might get a few flakes tonight

12z is upgrades for the south, now looking like tonight is out of play but Weds the low is in the perfect spot to hit most of the south of the UK

GFS 12Z looks like a winner might be on Tuesday night into Weds for most of the south. Tonight is still going to be hit or miss.

Too many years under the Medway shield has dampened my excitement! If it picks up over the water we could do well here, but who knows.

I reckon Tonbridge could be in for a good spell this week.

Anyone else just desperate for the 12z now..

This, they always leave it late when they don't have confidence. Always read the wording of the warnings as well as look at the risk matrix. The models are still battling out the next 24 hours, let alone the next 48.

Keep the faith.

With my IMBY hat on that sounds good as someone in Medway, though the combined might of all the models is leaning towards it now. I was excited this morning to see how it played out from a distance but knowing it might actually arrive here makes it a different chase. The wording of the METO warning is interesting - 'hills and perhaps to lower levels in places. Many areas will see little or no accumulations of snow, but 1 to 2 cm could settle in some spots, most likely over high ground and southern parts of the warning area. The rain and snow is then expected to turn light and patchy as it slowly clears southern England on Tuesday. As skies clear overnight, ice is also likely to form readily on untreated surfaces.' Leaning more into ice conditions at the moment.

I think the wording and warning might change as we get later into the day. If you take the totality of what is available at the moment there is certainly potential for the south and southeast to get a decent layer.

So Nick I am right in reading this as the new updates for the south and south east are actually looking more likely?

MetO always keep their powder dry but when they light it...

I could see it in the models, but I love to read it from Nick!

Agreed, looks pretty spot on to me...

That's a suck it and see warning if I have ever seen one. Just put a blob over the entire midlands, EA and even most of Kent... Wait for the 12z runs then see them change it again.

That's a fascinating option, if there is lying snow, regardless of depth, at 10am and then we get either more light snowfall or rain for the day it could be treacherous out there.

I have seen great accumulation from 'light' before now. It is a window watch situation.

I wouldn't worry too much, this will come down to the wire, forecast now almost an irrelevance for next 24 hours.

Just hear to get some positivity in my mind! SNOW FOR SOUTH EAST TONIGHT! (please...)

Completely agree, we say it time and time again that snow can be nowcasting, this really is.. It is plausible the entire UK gets snow, it seems equally plausible from other models that it is a nothing except Scotland!!

Really 50/50 for Kent as far as I can see, if it speeds up even a tiny bit today we could get lucky. Sadly I have been through the ringer enough times to already have mentally written it off as nothing but rain.

Think Medway is out of the running for this one, rain inbound