throwoff

The past however many years I have been on NW the GFS seems to be the one when it comes to snow under 48 hours out. The FI charts are laughable but they seem to have some of the most accurate short term charts. They pretty much nailed the past few years of when and where snow would fall in my neck of the woods.

the 18z is the worst in my experience, it isn't called the pub run for nothing.

Matt, do you buy the 'get the cold in' arguement? In that setting up a decent cold spell early often leads to further interesting patterns as the season progresses? I realise we are looking more at statistically analysis than forecasting in that argument but from my understanding it tends to hold up.

I feel like the snow is out there somewhere... I have a completely unfounded good feeling about this winter!

The 'problem' with this thread is that is does pull out a cross section from ardent rampers to doom mongers. Sadly when the models are complex toys immediately go flying from multiple prams and the unstoppable force meets the immovable object. FWIW the mods do a superb job, especially as the thread gets busier and busier.

I make you right here. If you took the current runs across the models as gospel we are about to see widespread snow with low temperatures at the same time as mild dry weather. We say it every year, part of snow is nowcasting, I have to say from years of following the models every winter we seem to do better from events that are still nowhere near settled 4 days out than the +240 wonder charts that never come to fruition. Maybe I am leaning into the over confident early but that the models still cant make up their mind for Friday is a good thing in my experience.

My absolute favourite thread, every year I get excited when we see the pixels!

Well, the days are starting to feel a little shorter, I figured it was time to come out of my annual Summer NW hibernation. Now, wheres those FI snow charts!?

Kent has been left in the doldums with this one hasn't it! One morning of snow, melted by rain by lunch and now a week+ of wet and rain modelled. The snow chaser in me is happy for all of you getting it. The IMBY in me hates you all!

Absolutely beautiful

Good luck to all of you outside Kent tonight, may magic happen!

Basically gone in Medway. Bit of a washout all things considered.

Am I the only one being told that we are getting pasted tonight by everyone at work? For once I would be happy to be completely wrong but I have been saying all day all we are going to get is more rain!

It's changing all the time. Pure nowcasting.

Just a tiny move south and we might be back in the game!

Strangely Kent is totally out of the warnings now, yet the latest METO update just went from rain all day from now to snow and sleet till 12 and rain after...

Always do well in that neck of the woods. Shame tonight has diluted into rain though, could have been quite special.

Very quick isn't it. Though I should imagine places like the great lines will still have a covering late into today. Sad that tonight's possibility has turned into heavy rain. Mind you at least the warmer temps will save us from an ice rink forming overnight.

Same in Kent, woke up to a decent layer but it's already melting back at a rapid rate. Looks like that was winters last hurrah for us

Looks from the models that our chances for the rest of the week in Kent are shot. Nothing but rain from here on out.

It's still snowing in Gillingham off and on which is interesting because everyone had it down as rain from about 8am. Somewhat irritatingly I work in a school and we are one of a small handful who have opened today so I am currently sat with no students as they are all unable to travel!

So let’s have the bets, snow for Kent tonight or rain? Pub run remains bullish

I love your confidence and hope it comes true

I honestly don’t see it at the moment!

Just can’t see it myself