bryan629

This mornings Mogreps seem to be showing an appetite for cold , Control starts to head south and takes a lot of ensembles with it after the 3rd. Best i have seen them do for a while. London, Leeds, Inverness

I don`t think GFS is on its own, there are strong similarities between it and the ECM at day 10. Out at that range anyway models will always struggle with the exact orientation of high pressure. The PV is pulling away over to the Asian side so needs something to replace it and remembering the second warming begins this week on an already very much weakened SPV then descending air builds HP then it is the most plausible of solutions. There is of course , perhaps the trigger out in the atlantic in the form of a deep low building a ridge ahead of it and over it. So looking at the anomolies for day 10 of GFS and ECM they are both quite remarkably similar , its the interaction that follows which leads to a Greeny high.

Thats not too far off what the Gem control shows this morning

Wowzers !! what else do you need for a boom chart !!

It not very often you see jet energy heading west across the UK.. first sign of a reversal perhaps... ! It looks as though the GFS delivers a starter earlier on .. can the mains make it to the table ?

Well well, according to strat observe... the vortex is completely annihilated early march. I have no idea what this would mean on the trop though.

So i was just having a gander at strat observe .. can this be the worlds ever highest tornado?

Are those bright yellows in the middle of the mangled PV showing the downwelling from the top. Full animation here, select 90 degrees angle. StratObserve 3D Vortex STRATOBSERVE.COM

Hi There, Here is a really good link you can use.. plenty to chew on on this website for you.. StratObserve STRATOBSERVE.COM

Snowing nice and steady here, radar not looking too shabby either

Not sure about any snow on the 24th from this but -12 uppers into southern England on the 24th courtesy of the Gem control. The 12z Gem op was put on the naughty chair but the control you would want not kick out of bed !! I thought the ECM op until 168 pretty much followed it too .. worth a look Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GEM (GENS GEM / CMC ENS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

Hi Nick, There seems to be a lot of wave breaking over the pacific , well according to what i`ve seen on twitter anyway. Do you think the models have been underestimating the strength and frequency of these? and do you think they are muting the MJO signal or is it a result of the MJO ?. TIA.

Just for fun at this range. GFS and GEFS between 2pm and 5pm Xmas day.. both show a nice little snowy feature heading in off the North Sea into our region. Use 3 hours steps on GFS , easier to see

Im not so sure myself , but you would assume being in a Fog warning for the majority of Yorkshire , skies would be clear. Our lass sets off for work usually at 2.30am.. Hope she doesnt break a leg.. who the hell will cook christmas dinner

Just been outside and its drizzling here, surfaces are soaked.. sod all showing on radar. If skies clear later on its going to be like an ice rink in the morning. Is it drizzling where your are, or is it just a local thing ?

Thanks for posting that on the mod thread.. and the cheeky one liner you made.. had a laugh Great to see you back as well @Scott Ingham and @Kasim Awan great posters. It is quite refreshing to wander in the regional thread just to get away from the whingers elsewhere, to me its like the happening place to be and i reckon that bowling ball low will disrupt . as per GEM and JMA. Looking forward to a very good winter oop north :

There were some musings/talk yesterday about the possibility of a Scandi high developing not long after the upcoming pattern change. Well GEFS control must have heard you, JFF of course and probably an outlier. 192- 384

I was looking for a nice snowy breakdown from the Gem .. Felt like it stuck two fingers up at me pfftt. Jees thats one heck of a cold pool over to the east.. will it pounce is the million dollar question ... but no matter what it has been a fantastic winter season overall so far.

The Gem has been adamant over a good few runs now that the streamer that sets up south of Humber will be nudged North and be over North Yorkshire for around a day before sinking back south. The low to the south ( undercutting ) causes this .. have a look at the gem precipitation frame by frame and you can see this in action.

Flipping Heck.... Freezing and getting more Freezinger North Yorkshire South Yorkshire

Absolutley... what really struck me with the Gem .. as the current low began to pull away south/south east so the flow began to be pulled with it taking the streamers further south ( not far mind you ) then as the new low began its undercut it pushed the streamers back north again.

Remember that there also may be instability in the flow so not just always perhaps about organised streamers.. the uppers are conducive to creating little troughs too. Watch out for little bumps and kinks in the flow Just as an example using tonight faxes.. if anything i noticed the little twiglets have disappeared as shown earlier , instead now showing a little bump over Baltic sea/Denmark area... circled A little later there`s a trough developing ...circled So just to illustrate.. There is always a chance there may be disturbances in the flow Luke !!

Surely it has to be better than the Harmonie.... Snow for higher ground only on this but some good accumulations in the North Sea

Funny you should say that Craigers, i was just passing a bit of time before ECM 12z so thought i would have a quick look at the much maligned CFS for a bit of fun. I did read posts on the mod thread that this model did pretty well picking up on this upcoming cold and following up with your charts these are the 168 from CFS... not too great at going under exactly but great for us non the less.. I wonder what the ECM 168 will look like.