bryan629

Really liked the Gem 12z... cold and snowy from Sat/Sun in many guises right out to day 10 for Yorkshire. Has frontal attacks embedded and still ends up finishing with an easterly. C`mon Gem reel it in !! PS I forgot to mention it looks like rain south of England.. OH Dear

What a beaut !!! Would i be right in thinking that would deliver Yorkshires first 10cm of snow?

I gotta feeling ..woooo hooooo

So Icon 18z v Gfs 18z at just 96h ... you couldn`t make this up... easterly or south easterly... pick your poison lol

Wow .. icon has gone totally toward GFS around 96h , brings in the easterly earlier

Hmmmm..... Is it just me or has the Icon upgraded the snow potential from last evening. Just scrolling through from when it starts to snow in Yorkshire to when it just about clears away T81 to T111 works out at around 30 hours worth. Could it be the second wave catches up with the first wave a lot quicker ? Tuesday also look a lot heavier precipitation too

Absolutley... Last 3 frames of the icon , This looks like EPIC snowfall .... please , please, please WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine ICON-EU 0.065° du DWD (météo allemande) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est)

Just woken up to a light snow and settled easily

Snowing really good here in Ripon, got to admit i was not expecting this

We had a very icy moment earlier on , Rain landed and froze on impact , was like an ice rink on the patio when i went out. Just been outside again and it a bits slushy now with rain falling lightly. I think we have been on the very brink of borderline over the past few weeks and was not impressed by the easterly we had despite what the models were displaying ,i did like the frost we had last night and over all though i am liking the cold period we have been having. I am well away from the mad thread at the moment.. to many knee jerk reactions on every single model run which are i think becoming more volatile with ever passing day ( Thanks to Shannon) and the downwelling SSW but really intruiging as to the impacts versus the base state of the trop and the impact of the downwelling. I hope we get a nice juicy easterly out of this and not a horrible south westerly from the Azores. No matter what though, i think its a brilliant winter so far .. embedded cold and no relentless atlantic .. long may it continue !!

A rain/sleet mix here now... hopefully that yellow blob heading off the moors will keep its precipitation intensity and bring the freezing line down a bit

Stopped snowing here for now and slowly melting ... just waiting for main course off the North York Moors now... need it to arrive soon so as not to land on wet surface.

Yes Scott, coming down much heavier now and settling

Just started snowing in Ripon VID_20210102_105131837.mp4

Hi Guys, Just had a graupel from the shower on radar over ripon that just blew up out of nowhere. will let you know what comes out of the sky when the main feature just north at the moment arrives soon. Looks like its going to be a good day radar watching.

WOW !! thats certainly worth a straw clutch or three, i just hope something like that verifies.

What sort of time frames are you thinking ?

Hi BA, I don`t understand a great deal about the MJO, but looking at the current forecasts going into phase 7 and 8 , shouldn`t we be seeing some sort of HLB in the models by now instead of a raging PV as is been advertised. I do understand there is a lag effect to consider, so when do you expect , if at all, the phase 7 and 8 being picked up by the models? Is the WAA over Alaska into the pole something to do with it as well ? .

I coudn`t agree with you more JS , its the timing , depth of pressure and placement that go on to make big differences later on. i could have posted all the charts for t144 for example and the differences are even much more diverse. i was merely illustrating that T120 is just about where FI begins. Cold Zonal is very much on the cards in one shape or form up to and probably beyond the weekend.. after that who knows if and where we see pressure rise when the downwelling crashes the party..

Just putting T120 charts side by side , with 5 models ecm, gem, gfs, icon and ukmo , these are for this coming saturday.. Whopping differences at just 5 days away. Shannons not only in the room , she has pulled up a chair and slapped her feet on the table.

Hmmm , now ukmo catching onto a scrussian ridge and GFS too, baby steps i know, but downwelling has to start to show up somewhere .... cant wait for the ECM now

May be barking up the wrong tree but something that has caught my eye is the development of a strong Russian high and seemingly westward movement across towards Scandi. Is it possible this could retrogress even further west across the top of the deep Euro low ? Below are the EC anomaly charts from the 0z days 9 and 10 , maybe clutching at straws but it is also visible on the GEM ( very last frames ) and the GFS just before it goes into low res and flattens the high.

Here the UKMO from yesterdays 00z , looks pretty dire with the low coming over the top of the ridge Yesterdays 12z slowed the low and held it long enough at the southern tip of Greenland long enough for the ridge to connect with the arctic ridge and again with this mornings 00z now at T120. So clearly UKMO had a bit of a wobble and how many times is it said in here that we need to see the UKMO on board . I cant really see the UKMO back-tracking to yesterdays 00z , specially after 2 good runs since then, i reckon it has already resolved the shortwave drama and the ECM hasn`t grasped the hold up yet hence the difference.

Morning All. I get the sense there is a lot of happy chappies in here this morning and rightly so Im sure March 2018 will be remembered for a long time. Not too sure how active it is out in the North Sea from the image below , although plenty of lake snow effect still evident, hard to see if we will see anything as active as yesterday or rule out any surprises later today as uppers around -12 with an unstable atmosphere One things pretty obvious though, it looks very cloudy today so no or very little melting from the sun Heres the link https://www.meteo.be/meteo/view/en/6714746-Satellite+Images.html updates every hour and is in European time

So , My take on tomorrow.. i seem to have done a Nick Sussex paint job lol .. but totally plausible . Ever get the feeling that Yorkshire will do bloody well this weekend