bryan629

No Idea Joggs, some folk say an active hurricane season does have some sort of bearing on the type of winter we may get, But this is just one of those things that make you go HHmmmmm .. coincidence or just one of those things ! https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/905783359359606785

Thanks Matt ,

Both my baby girls ( now 21 and 27 ) are holidaying in Orlando , running the gauntlet of Theme Parks,. If it was safe to assume Irma will flirt with the east coat of Florida as it tracks north and Orlando been approximatley 60 miles west of the eye .. can i ask what the wind speeds would likely be if the image i posted verified.. im in regular contact with them on Fb .. i just dont know what to tell then to do or where to go if needed. Can anyone give me an idea of what they should expect please.

yes i noticed.. uppers don`t have to be low with a cold undercutting in a continental feed, albeit in this case we should be importing a cold south /south easterly, so dew points maybe just about cold enough Perhaps maybe possibly the timing of the front over a cold surface combined maybe with evaporative cooling.. and low dew points might deliver the white stuff to low levels. its interesting all the same as other models are not seeing this, perhaps maybe a surprise for some Heres the dew points for the same time.. not brilliant but maybe just enough , but then throw in the rate of PPN.. could just tip it to a lot of snow

Arpege advetising a rain to snow event for much of northern england 6z 12z Possibly continental undercut ? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?map=330

6 hours on and the Arperge is still seeing snow crossing the region

Arpege Model has widespread snowfall for Eastern England in just 44hrs courtesy of front moving west to east Surely it cant be cold enough, is this model wide of the mark or is there some viability to it ?

Warm sector now further out to sea.. could be a decent covering here for Yorkshire would love to see the southern front correct even further north in the morning. Oh , nice to see this thread busy as well.

There from here BA ...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

With the NAO looking like its set to go into very negative territory and then back into positive territory by the first day of winter, wouldnt this tell a story about low pressure taking a bit of a grip in the atlantic somewhere abouts. Then we have a forecasted AO driving into deeply negative territory, so not a sniff of the PV getting its act together at all for the reasonable timeframe , i don`t really see a Greenie high here, seeing as the NAO is going to probably trend positive. So allegedly its quite plausible a Scandi block could be very much present and troughs/lows been driven under, which would be plausible for a -ve NAO... Or have i missed something !!

its just a question now of how far west it creeps .. but certainly looking at a possible nose bleed high.

Welcome to Yorkshire Paul.. hopefully we will have plenty of snow events over the next few months to keep us all entertained.. I cant post radar/precipitation pics ,, but it sure has been pepping up over the past hour heading over the tops.

I think i`ll take the 12z as an upgrade

The Arpege is a little less bullish about the Eastern extent of snow.wintry mix this morning. Still really good to be talking of snow so early on, rather than gales and flooding.

Judah seems to be as confused as the models this week... as he put it `` hes scratching his head`` quite a lot of ifs, buts and maybe`s in this weeks blog . http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Im kinda thinking the siberian high will grow into a monster fairly soon.. no evidence to back it up mind, i just seem to remember JH saying a few years back that because of its remoteness , not much data is gathered from that part of the world.

here you go

where have you moved from Paul

Hmm .. Arpege still saying wintry conditions , not exclusively for higher ground... i wonder if evaporative cooling might cone into play here .

Hi Gang, Well well this chart raised an eyebrow or 2 lol.... could be a surprise for some come wednesday morning

Just in case anyone was wondering how deep the snow is in Siberia

Unbelievable run -8 uppers creeping west... then have a look at the cold pooling over Russia.. i dont think i have ever seen grey shading before

Did someone say about a record -AO/NAO recently...!! Where we might be heading into the last 2 weeks of November.. A little bit of scatter towards mid month but ultimately, still in negative territory.. Substantial reward given for information leading to the whereabouts of the PV

This makes for good reading ..

Just been watching a video that kind of explains that chart as the `` Bath tub splosh theory`` whereby cold air is transported from one side of the NH to the other via baroclinicity, without actually crossing straight over the pole An American old timers theory apparently. Joe bastardi explains it here http://www.weatherbell.com/ scroll halfway down the page and its the video on the left ... he said its not showing up on any model yet, but the anomaly chart he uses right near the end and looking through quite a number of pertubs on gfs go for something like it past the 250hr mark. Maybe just for fun ... maybe have a bit of credence .. lets see !