bryan629

Brilliant annihalation of the strat vortex at 300 Then by 384.. its a case of `` see ya next november``

two runs in deep deep FI , with similar endings.... The PV gets knocked out of the ring as well .....

This looks awesome ..... Thanks to Judah Cohen

Putting aside the next 24-48 hrs... Sunday is looking pretty good for snow here in Yorkshire and LIncolnshire " Our back yard" GFS has around -5/6 uppers but ECM has a degree or so colder... By the looks of it its a pretty unstable flow, i hope this upgrades just a tad and the instability move a little further south in the comming runs . Personally , i really hope that folk in the south get some snow soon so we can put an end to scenes like this one

Beware the hides of March..... dont want to get a burnt finger now do we

HI Nick ... this popped up on twitter earlier on in the evening... im not sure if Recretos is referring to the Strat or the Trop though ... Cold weather to last a week or so as well.. caveat been lots of uncertainty !! http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35546462

I see what your saying about trough disruption .. or the possibility thereof...!! The CMA shows of quite nicely your line of thinking Nick http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?ech=12&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&archive=0 I hope the 12z ECM starts to sniff something along these lines

Hi Nick , I have been deliberating over trough developments over the North Sea as the sliders head south east, with the winds swinging easterly ... and as you say they wont be readily be modelled at this range anyway... im reckoning on a thermal gradient of around 20 degrees , with North Sea SST`s being around 10 to 12 degrees at the moment... with -6 to -8 uppers ( if i have my maths correct) Do you think there is scope for instability within the easterly flow to develop a trough pushing inland from east to west ..

This is crazy... just looking further out , around about day 9 . Here we have a reasonably long fetch Northerly all the way out of the arctic circle on a speedy flow south ... piling out of Svalbard , It actually looks quite good on the 500`s with WAA firing up towards Greenland you might assume -8 uppers would be firing south with this chart. Then you take a gander upper 850`s and you have this.... Pffttt... iv`e seen better charts in Autumn ( not last Autum, obviously, lol ) compared to this , considering its approaching the coldest period of the year for cold in the arctic... On the plus side though at least the jet is staying south through the majority of the time.. so cant really grumble

This is Cohens latest blog..... http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation What i would like to know is this paragraph good news or bad news for the uk 30–day I remain confident that a T-S-T coupling event is ongoing and about to enter its final stage. The strong negative AO state that dominated January (Figure 1) was a tropospheric precursor that initiated a strong burst of vertical energy transfer (and is predicted to be record breaking) from the troposphere into the stratosphere that will peak over the next few days as seen in the vertical wave activity flux (WAFz) plot (Figure 8). Model runs continue to predict that this energy burst will result in record warm temperatures for the polar stratosphere and force an impressive SSW. As we discussed above, this will result in an almost immediate tropospheric response resulting in Arctic outbreaks for East Asia and especially the Eastern United States.

Its really good to see the models coming up with some good synoptics now... better late than never i suppose, also some good snow events possible for our part of the world, have to laugh at some folk in the south chucking the towel in last week though, dont get me wrong i really hope they see some decent snowfall too... they deserve it .. i could post some precip charts but we all know there a rough guide .. i prefer radar watching its miles better than a chart 120 hours out lol.... Hope all you guys and gals are ok .. and ready with the stellas and baps... with a decent lamp post near your house as well

Im really surprised today that no one has happened to mention the GEM runs today... OK still out in FI but very similar with its morning run.. The 12z miles better than the 00z with heights being pumped up over the pole and heading in towards Greenland.. What is of more interest though is the displacing Azores high towards North East canada... Heres the 240 profile... but best viewed frame by frame here... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0 I think there is some light at the end of what seems a very long tunnel... and as per usual the GFS isnt interested in a Party just yet ! only at t300 or so does it smell some coffee...

I would like to nominate the chart of the day to the GFS at +384 pfftt... Get out of that if you can MR.Nasty . >>>>>>>

I hope so too... i think there are some good signs in the operationals , that are sniffing at something for feb.. the shifting/displacement of the pv and all that warming up in the strat .. well its a bit like having mike tyson on the ropes in round 2 and your just wanting to deliver the knockout blow and then realise your arm weakening lol... Its a question of , is there enough punch to bring the pv down? i`m more than sure we will know this within the next five days or so... i really think feb and also march will deliver the goods for our part of the world

I cant be sure if this has been posted today but an interesting video about the prospects for the rest of winter... colder northern europe , wetter southern europe.. thats smells of a - NAO and even some pictures of knockers daffs thrown in ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35375096?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central i also thought it was good educational information for joe public too

Chio, do you think we could see similarities of March 1984 ( as per tweet) except with the synoptic possibilities 4 weeks earlier . ? Just had a look through the archives here.... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=3&year=1984&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

Quite a long way off just yet but this is very impressive surely the PV is going down from this chart

I just may have mis-read Cohens blog tonight.. but im sure he mentioned something about energy heading south east towards the Med in the near future.. Also good news if your looking for an SSW too http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Is this for real.... laughed my head off when i read it.... @Carol Kirkwood http://newsthump.com/2016/01/16/no-sanction-for-bbcs-carol-kirkwood-over-cold-as-fck-weather-forecast/

i proper take my hat off to this guy... cant wait for his blog tomorrow night Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 5 hrs5 hours ago If I am sacrificing my holiday to spend the entire day on the AO blog, you know I think it is going to be good

I hope so too BA... my knowledge of strat related subjects is still in its infancy and very much above my pay grade lol i was wondering now if GP`s `Torpedo` is trop led or strat led.... because some modelling deep in FI are definately tinkering with height rises in our locale.. cfs as shown earlier as a mere example, for instance.

This is certainly encouraging >>>>> Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 5 mins5 minutes ago If you enjoy winter weather, IMHO the 0Z GFS was as as optimal a solution as you could have hoped for- #SSW and -AO!

A fairly timely post BA... i can see where you are coming from.. The CFS laughable as it is , advertises your thoughts quite clearly here... but like you say a long shot, but in weather terms stranger things have happened too... and still with model instability continuing.. certainly cannot be ruled out

sometimes it shows precip over our heads but in reality from your window nothings falling... it called araphoric precipitation ( i think thats the correct terminolgy anyway) its where rain/snow is falling out of the clouds but not reaching the surface due to evaporative coolin... So basically, rain /snow is evaporating as it falls. Hope this helps with future radar watching

Well well , what a day its been.. told ya Yorkshire was in for a bit of a sweetspot earlier... pity met office didnt spot it till darn late.. !! Any way cant wait for sunrise and hopefully some excellent snowy scenes, thanks also for everyones photos tonight too. I just heard neighbour shouting to his kids who are are out in the garden frollicking in the snow say this >>>>>>>>>