[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Nice improvement on the gfs18z gets rid of the less cold uppers and replaces them with -8 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ICON much weaker again on the 18z run with the snowfall.

Only light snow coming through the whole region on this run.

Dam 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

MetO have also upgraded the snow forecast for Croydon commencing Sunday all the way to Wednesday 

Still only have light snow for my location in Sussex just hope there is another nudge south ore that the extent on the heavy precipitation is underestimated. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

As far as I can see, yes.

Again using the same 82 seperate ensemble members and operational models (Ie NOT GFS/ensembles, for comparison sakes) for the 12z runs:

6 are too warm for wider parts of Kent and maybe S.Essex, 1-2 of them too warm for most of the region indeed.

8 are marginal for the very far SE tip of Kent 

68 look ok for the whole region.

I'll update tomorrow's 00z run to see where the trend goes. Soon I will be able to add ARPEGE ensembles as well as a few other high resolution models, giving a total of 110+ separate runs.

 

Are then any which give good totals to Sussex? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

Brighton still looks like it's on the edge  these lows from atlantic keep pushing the cold air to north, so annoying, they just keep coming!

I’m not worried by them yet plenty of time for them to trend south which they normally always do white this sort of set up  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I will deffo take what the para is showing for my area. Model trend seem to be good for the southeast now 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An excellent ECM run upto day 8 .

Hard to grumble with the amount of snow chances , the low on Sunday is still too far out to nail down . The more shallower the better for those more marginal areas .

A trend also to dig more of that cold further south into mainland Europe which could be important depending on the angle of attack from the Atlantic .

The ECM has made quite a change from previous runs , before the limpet shortwave phased with the upstream low , this is always a bit risky , here this doesn’t .

Regarding any breakdown the angle of any attempt by low pressure to move in is likely to change between runs .

 

Nick when do we expect your committee meeting report tonight. Hope there hasn’t been any lasting damage to the members over the last few days!!!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

 @nick sussex which model would that be? Have asked in here as it isn’t appropriate for the mod thread

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

I’m going with the UKMO location of the low at t96. There is a reason the gfs is the worst preforming model. I’m sure it has that low 300 miles too far north. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

ICON 12z are a joy to behold, SE now firmly in the game after everything has dropped south by around 100 miles and a slider to boot during the middle of next week

Hopefully the other models follow suit and things start firming up in the next 24/48 hours

Just 100 miles more for the Kent and Sussex to get some heavy snowfall 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

2018 was hit and miss for sure I was working in Marlow and they had snow in the ground there for ages..cant remember exact length of time.. 

I remember when the mild air arrived though as it went all "steamy" and foggy in the hills 

Don’t have much of a memory of snow for the 2018 event here in Sussex I think we had 1 day of lying snow. Just hoping it isn’t the same again this time and we all get a good dumping of snow 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

How is it looking for snow starved Sussex. I know it now looks like we will be cold enough but will we get the precipitation at the same time? 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just need the uppers slightly colder for this to be finally a good event for the southeast 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 hours ago, Snipper said:

Pigeons trying to trash my broccoli plants. Will have to rig up a Chris Packham scarecrow. That should put them off. He certainly puts me off.  

Can say that again turn him off on the tv whenever he pops up. Lies and doesn’t understand the countryside 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Gfs gives the SE it’s very own US style northeaster 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

17 minutes ago, Audaxian said:

Had some snow (the fat wet stuff) falling mixed in with rain in the last cold spell where I am (Uckfield). We were just a little too far south, I heard not far north of us got a decent covering.

 

Yup, me too!

Just up the road from you 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I really apologize guys, but I feel I have to draw attention to something that may well scupper how things may look tomorrow and change the outlook dramatically.

My attention to the 12z and 18z runs, has been drawn to how much they depend upon what we generally expect to occur. not what actually happens.

But looking at today's runs it strikes me that, against all odds, a high pressure system is going to pursue the low pressure south and follow it so far south, it ends up leaving us with southwesterly winds!

I have come to this conclusion because I am convinced that, as well as managing Spurs, Mourinho also gives instructions to the models as regards how he wants the different pressure systems to play out,  but this will not be how they actually perform at the end of the day! 

 

Timmy look at the jet stream it isn’t possible.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

42 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

A shift 20 miles East would be nice

A shift 100 miles south east would also be nice 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

59 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Shades of the beast from 2018

Issue with the 2018 one is imby there was v little in snowfall which looks like it wood be the same if this were to happen 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve lost count over the years how many times a predicted low was shifted south nearer the time. Sunday just gone was very rare as it trended further north. Imagine this  75 miles south and it’s game in for all the region....it definitely won’t reach Stoke...Near the Peak District  All still to play for gang

Hope you are right Tim 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

So will Sussex miss out the umpteenth time again this weekend? Or can we get more trends south 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Jamie M said:

Oh lawd, please not again.

It’s the hope that kills us  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Looks like the front is going to decay like this morning before getting to Sussex

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

37 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Not quite everywhere else lol. 

Add Sussex to that lol 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Really nice to see some snow fall but we have basically a dusting here nothing else. Really poor this year so far