Tom Jarvis
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Posts posted by Tom Jarvis
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10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Founder member CAS . Coldies Against Slush !
Ice days and crunchy snow is what the vast majority of members here want to see so as much as we’ve seen some very encouraging outputs my crunchy snow alert hasn’t been activated yet for the UK.
Given the horrors that could have been dished up with mild crud then the trends are good overall but let’s aim high and not have to put up with buffet scraps .
Long suffering UK coldies deserve first dibs .
Nick where are you on your traffic light system for this setup?
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So tonight the changes at short term ie within t96-t120 has led to smithing allot better down the line. As long as we get that cut of low supporting the high we will be in business. This isn’t out in t240 this is very short term which leads to positives later. So I’m hoping tomorrow that the ECM finally joins the UKMO then it will be another massive win for the UKMO over all the other models. For once the UKMO might have been right on something that actually improves the chances of cold for us in the uk rather than it finding that spoiler that ruins everything.
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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
That Azores low that broke away is propping height's further north on this run,watch the amps in the Atlantic!
That is why it is key
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Come on GFS I take back all the grief over the years if you have this right !!
GFS has only just got it right the UKMO was there first.
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Now we will see were this leads to with weather or not we get undercutting lows
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1 minute ago, Jason M said:
This is an interesting feature that's been floating around the output for a while now. It may be one of those things that causes some local short term entropy but actually has little bearing on the final destination. I just don't see this as being significant in the broader scale picture. That said, I watch with interest in the hope that I'm proved wrong. Lets see if the pub run has been on the sauce tonight.
Jason look through the 12z run of the ICON, the low is key as it helps keep the high propped up and is an linking path for lows to undercut the high.
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Chaps we have differences at t120 which greatly affect the pattern afterwards we need to watch this circled low for what it does before we can properly understand what is happening going forward.
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So icon still sides with the UKMO with its 18z run. Keeping the low in the Azores
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Looks like UKMO is the odd one out at t144 regarding the low in the Azores. I actually think that that low is important.
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Still disagreements with the shortwave energy at day 6 .
The UKMO keeps the one to the sw cut off which then fills , the GFS takes this ne .
The UKMO has a kink in the isobars over northern England with colder air moving se and a cleaner evolution .
Nick I think that low is the key to keeping the high intact and stop it collapsing over us. If we keep it in the Azores then it can provide a route for undercutting lows to take. Until this feature is modelled correctly then FI is from that point.
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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
It's laughable really,the different between the gfs and UKMO at 144!
the gfs want's to send the LP NE with pos snow in the north whereas the UKMO sends it packing to the Azores
UKMO could be charter the day today the only way I can see it going from there is the low near Greenland becoming negatively tilted. That then ejects energy southeast and links with the low in the Azores which then basically traps the high to the north and then allows lows to go into Europe giving us an easterly. @Steve Murr the UKMO 168 chart might give us an idea even though it only shows you a tiny bit. Just my 2 pennies worth but if the more seasoned posters think I’m a bit mad thinking that pls say why as wanting to learn.
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Christmas snow storm for the SE on the control
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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:
And the last one from me tonight, the Control is on the prowl at 216.
Thank you and goodnight!
Yep the control is going to show pure filth in FI
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
GFS pub run T204:
Clean amplification in the Atlantic but this won’t lead to the ECM scenario earlier, it looks like it will topple.
Mike it’s shouldn’t topple as there are low heights supporting it at the base
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Look at that low not get past the tip of Greenland. It is key that it stops and heads north like this run. @Steve Murr just like you said that it is good that it doesn’t get past that point. Hope this is is a cracking run.
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Shame the short waves stop the cold air coming down from the north
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@Steve Murrwe need your divine wisdom back
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wedges make sledges!!
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Rolf the gfs just doesn't have a clue what to do with energy going under a block. That dartboard low will never happen. But what we can take from tonight’s gfs is that for once we could have some proper cold weather for Christmas.
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No snow here in Sussex.
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I think Crowborough could get some snow.
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25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The ECM and GFS seem to be converging on an interesting but not outlandish evolution with troughing near the UK disrupting s/se with pressure trying to build to the nw .
If the PV does actually relocate east ne in its entirety then you’d be very unlucky to not see some interest for coldies .
What would be nice beforehand is to get more energy heading se rather than south as that troughing disrupts .
For two reasons ,that could help advect some colder air into the UK from any cold pool further east/se and secondly low pressure in the northern Med rather than Iberia would act as a good foundation to support any high which develops to the nw .
Fingers crossed Nick. The last few years have been v poor even when there were some good background signal. Can I ask what drives the PV to locate in that area rather than the dreaded Greenland limpet location it has been for the last few years.
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Can see the cell in the channel flashing from my location shame it’s not heading this way just terrible for this area for storms over the last year
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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I dunno possibly a CZ helped with buoyant incoming air. There should be some cloud breaks but unless they happen soon it’s kind of pointless
Well it’s sunny here atm but no point if they form here and move north as still miss out on them. Need stuff to come across the channel but instead of die as soon as it hits the coast it needs to keep its Oooph. But not really seeing any sigh of that
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Interesting new feature on the gfs 18z will this help or hinder