DanDorsetUK

For me the heights are only going to amplify on upcoming runs untill downwelling ends. You can already see mirroring taking place and the trends to drop the PV into Europe and then head west. It's all going to plan. The downwelling is still taking place, models will only run with the data it sees. I'm pretty sure the models have yet to take into full account the full impacts of the downwelling. The greater the downwelling the more they will run with greater heights, and i feel there is some even better runs yet to come. For me were just seeing the start of the pattern developing. Heights pushing in from behind the PV in future warmings will only help to drop the PV even lower and push west. I'm very confident were going to be slammed possibly even right through Febuary. I dont see much stopping this now the momentum is gaining. Maybe a delay here and there with some drama along the way but overall your not going to stop the shift. Looking for waa up into Greenland is not the only driving factor here but will help with link ups. There is pressure being forced from above down not just from waa and that I feel the models have yet to fully factor into runs yet. The Siberian express has already left the station, it may have a few stops on the way but the final destination for me remains the same how ever long it takes to get here.

Some crazy reactions on here today I feel. Take a ten minute breather and watch vid 2 then relax.

Personally I dont see anything to be worried about just yet. For me it's just about downwelling timing. Its clear they are picking up the downwelling but surely this will now increase as time goes on and then reflect in the output. I've not looked lately how much downwelling has acured to todays date and the timeline involved but maybe that's worth a quick look. When the reinforcements hit again give it a delay time then you'll see that reflects in the models.

Add into the equation of greater downwelling than what the models are currently picking up on, and also SSW reinforcements coming into the equation in 8 to 10 days time I think it's safe to say there will be more cold pushed out into lower regions than currently being modeled. Personally I think were in for a very potent spell of cold that could potentially last right through February. Good signs as it stands.

Yes very evident of downwelling detected i would say this is a QTR event. 2 more warmings likely to come too.

Beautiful! Textbook response!

100% SSW response and right where expected! Downwelling being picked up for sure tonight, has to be.

-2 here in Poole. Doubt that precip coming in from north west will hold on but if it does might see some light flakes. "Maybe"

Bartlett Highs video he posted is why we need to be looking towards greenland for height rises. And explains exactly why it takes time for the models to pick up on any SSW. Like i said before the models will not run with any SSW factors untill it sees the downwelling. I think many may be forgetting the time lag of 10 to 14 days for any downwelling. IF the downwelling begins and we hope it does there will be a dramatic change in the output once the downwelling is detected. I just dont think we are there yet considering it's only just happened and with further warming to come.

Great video, certainly looks promising!

My money is more on the para being correct. Not because its showing what we want to see but because it's been more consistent along with I believe can model the SSW downwelling much better.

You know it will drop South Its an improving picture. Going to get very interesting after the 2nd and 3rd warming. I still think things will look much better come then. This weekend I think we will begin to see the bigger picture.

True, but I'd say that's got battle ground written all over it we are right in the middle. Would be unlikely to be warm. I'd favour the beast winning out but that's just my unbiased opinion of course.

Much better SSW response from EC with a Possible split type showing on the 2nd warming. Better downwelling and slower recovery if you can even call it that. Things are going to get very exciting I'd say. 3rd SSW looking very interesting too! More likelyhood of much colder conditions into NW-EU!

Some hope yet. Keeping holding on folks.

Proof

Quite interesting looking at the radar there must definitely be a colder layer there as its trying to turn to snow on Radar. Also temp has just fallen a degree here.

Yes very odd! Must of been a brief cold layer. Worth keeping an eye out later.

Was just as I came down kinson road. Small and brief but definitely snow.

Just looked on radar and there is a fair bit coming in from North east. Ive not checked how far that is meant to reach but as it stands right now it must be conductive to snow. Uppers must be improving to do that was nice to see though didn't last long but wouldn't be surprised to see something falling again looking at the cloud coming in later.

Yes still doing it now. Very faint but it's there!

Unbelievably just seen flakes of snow in Kinson Poole.

Check out the SSW updates today. Cooking along nicely. 50C warming at 10hpa above north pole now. Mean looks good to for 14 days.

31 members east. Looks good to me. The mean stays at or below for 14 days.