DanDorsetUK

Yes great update from met office! Please stay on the right side of these lows! I only want 1 that's all I'm asking!

I was confident we would get something this morning after seeing GFS and GFSP bring the precip further west now seeing those fax charts I'm not sure anymore. This is going down to radar watch unfortunately a 50 mile shift west could bring the likes of Dorset and IOW in on it more. But for now my expectations have completly gone so my thinking is we get nothing and hope for a surprise on radar. We may then be turning our hopes to this low coming in next week. Fingers and toes crossed for everyone!

I'm wondering if they are waiting for the 12z today and tomorrow. East is nailed not so this side of things.

Well that warning sucks! Even for Sunday. They obviously think it's not going to push anymore West. We may have to wait for a slider hopfully then.

Looking good now me thinks! Dew points look okay from 6am Sunday. I'm pretty sure anything that does hit from then on will be snow. I'd say the slider is starting to look quite likely too for next week.

Now showing 1oC for Tuesday every little helps

I think this would be more realistic if things go right for the South. Good luck to everyone!

Lol Met office showing 4oC in Poole for next Tuesday on the app. Matt Hugo saying the South unlikely to see any snow. Hoping these lows will slip further south. Would highly doubt we would miss out entirely on what is a very brisk eastily showing.

People would do well to watch Mark's latest video and the reason why models are having a hard time right now. Specifically GFS. #maybe Not sure why this got moved here during new model thread given its model related.

Well what a complete and utter farse it's all been this winter. MANY lessons learnt for me this year so much so I've decided never to look at another model run for the rest of my life. Time is better spent doing more worthwhile pratical things. Computer generated weather is a complete and utter waist of many many hours. I'll be the first to admit I also got caught up in the hysteria at the start of Christmas with the historic winter posts being churned out. Then the SSW induced hysteria that once again has done absolutely nothing. Never in all my life have I wasted so much time looking at pointless day 10 charts which as always come to nothing! Take it from me for anyone wanting to join the 10 day weather hunt. DONT! Don't allow yourselves to ever get cought up in the hype. Spend your limited time you have doing more important things and stick to putting your heads out the window to check the weather. Best of luck to everyone for the future! Signing off.

Model fatigue has set in for me, all rather tedious at the moment and its getting boring. I've still got my eyes around the 20th onwards for something to get more enjoyable to look at judging by goings on high above. Somethings got to give soon surely!

If we continue to get the mirroring and downwelling it's only a matter of time before its reflected in the operationals. I think this is reason why in some later stages of the runs we are seeing height rises towards the Pacific. This should help push the PV South into Europe. If you go onto YouTube on his last 2 previous videos he's explaining it quite well. Will be interesting if he does a follow up soon.

We see time and time again there is an algorithm for the morning runs through to the 18z. Rather than view them as downgrades from a previous evenings runs and avoid using such words it's a good idea to view them as scenarios. So for example... 0z compare with yesterday's 0z runs. 6z compare with yesterday's 6z 12z compare with yesterdays 12z 18z compare with yesterday's 18z You will then get a much better analysis and avoid any morning disappointments based on a previous 18z. The following image sums this up nicely and how I feel models should be perceived based on consistent observations to an algorithm.

Rare for them to mention snow word 10 days out. Let alone the fact they favour the colder outcome.

Well the met office 10 day video update I posted is worth a watch. Interesting.

Well that's a ramp if I've ever seen one. 10 Day Trend 130121 M.FACEBOOK.COM The wintry theme looks set to continue for parts of the UK into next week ?️ Here's the latest 10 Day Trend with a look at the weather a little...

For me this is a big precursor pattern shift. If PV-forecast last night was right saying a PV split possible today then everything we've been looking at was surely wrong anyway. This looks like an instant shift to goings on above. I wouldn't trust anything being seen right now. Almost looks like something you see with a Tsunami response with the tide rushing out before a sudden surge.

I'm also in Poole wouldn't worry to much at this stage. From that position would only be a matter of time anyway. I'm also expecting a bigger push south of the main lobe than currently indicated anyway with enhanced warming and downwelling coming up.

Mirroring taking place. Quite amazing to see. New warming injection coming shortly too which will only go on to enhance the pattern which will likely push the main lobe South west down the line. I'm 100% convinced we are in for a memorable spell of weather right into Feb.

Yes very interesting for what should be cycle 25 starting. Quite an eye opener at the moment.

Talk about people quick to jump onto the moans backstabbing band wagon all of 1 comment based on 1 shoddy start on the icon of all models. They must of been waiting all day to say that.

I think it refers to the predictor of the predictor which comes out soon. Lol

Deleted.