stainesbloke
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Posts posted by stainesbloke
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Very little of snow dusting left here now, melted very quickly in the last half hour. Looking forward to seeing what the next front brings.
Just started snowing again
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BBC London news appears to put both of us in the snow zone for later, rain south London etc. that all said, their forecast at 2230 last night was entirely WRONG (they said no ppn would reach us, never mind fall as snow and settle) so why I listen to them I do not know. :-)
That's good we are in the snow zone for later
though temps are rising after the cold front so it would melt, however we may get more tonight as that occlusion swings back. Who knows?! Nice to see a dusting -
Got an icing sugar dusting here, on everything apart from roads. Temp just below freezing.
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Potential for some moderate to heavy snow over much of the UK tomorrow, but temperatures will be pretty marginal due to a pool of warmer air with 850hPa temperatures around or above the -5C mark, especially the further south and west you are, so it is doubtful as to how much of it will settle on low ground. The GFS is suggesting that north-east England is most likely to be heaviest affected:
http://cdn.nwstatic..../uksnowrisk.png
We have seen a significant toning down of the subsequent easterly- many earlier runs would have seen a fair number of snow showers come in off the North Sea, particularly for SE Scotland, NE England, Lincolnshire and Norfolk, but it has now been slackened somewhat. The ECMWF and UKMO versions are a little less slack than the GFS and more in line with what the FAX charts show, and thus would bring snow showers further inland than the GFS precipitation charts are suggesting, but if the GFS version comes off then it will only be coastal fringes that will see any showery activity.
The easterly flow is likely to slacken off almost completely by Thursday with snow showers restricted to coastal fringes, but there is considerable potential for classic "frontal battleground" snowfalls as Atlantic weather systems struggle to make much headway against the Scandinavian blocking high and also bring some fairly potent polar maritime incursions in behind the fronts, causing cold air to meet slightly less cold air. A fast breakdown from the west is not implausible as we saw the models overdo Scandinavian blocking as recently as mid-December, but at the other end of the spectrum, nor is something similar to the 5th-7th February 1996 when some parts of the UK had a sizeable dumping.
A sizeable dumping is always most satisfying
Interesting week to come model watching, must be record uncertainty?! -
Not a flake here, can see stars now too, I'm off to bed lol. Hopeful for a nice surprise in the morning
Hope you all see some snow! -
Agreed, hopefully we can start looking toward the next cold setup if things progress as discussed in here lately. That's an observation, no charts to back that up, just hours upon hours sitting in here listening to the more intelligent.
Yes, with the SSW still to filter through and another strat temp rise on the cards I'm sure late Jan and Feb could be very interesting
Potential for this week not over by any means either, it's more of a wait and see approach because no model seems to be able to predict outcomes with confidence. At least I saw the sun today! -
Yes posted when came out that the UKMO at t96 would not show tomorrow what it does today at t120, the shift didn't look logical. MetO clearly watered it down a bit, and that makes sense. Overall a disappointing days runs, a cold week but that's about the jist of it from today's runs. 2c - 3c daytime temps are cold for sure but IMO a nuisance nagging temp with no real interest involved.
BFTP
There will be changes, some very short term ones I'd expect so not all hope lost. Worst case it will be dry and cold like you say, I guess it will go a long way towards drying out those flood hit areas. Sunny and cold is loads better than rain rain rain IMHO.
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No sign of snow here yet, cloudy and feeling very chilly but temp is still just above freezing. Not expecting much, hopefully will wake up to a nice dusting
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Just flicking between theUKMO 96 and 120 it looks a little strange. I can't see the reason for the sudden appearance of such an extensive upper trough and surface low out of nowhere. The 96 hr setup does not hint at such a formation so quickly. It looks like some error?
Yes, all a bit sudden, that low seems to explode, seems a bit suspect. But if it happens....wow!
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not too keen on the neon pink power of that jet http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11415.png!! That has the potential to destroy everything before it including our block!!
Unless it moves SE and keeps us in the freezer
We can but hope! -
Just about to put up the bird feeder in the garden - hope the neighbour's cats don't get too interested! Also off to Battersea at Old Windsor with some food and blankets, it always seems freezing there for the poor doggie residents:(
Aww
Got my cat from there a few years ago. He's been eating like mad the last few weeks as have all my friends/families cats....a sign of extended cold?! -
I'm alot more cautious on my weather page and keen to highlight uncertainties. Forecasting snow is proving to be a nightmare though! :-)
Yes, forecasting snow in the UK must be so difficult, I really don't envy the profs!
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The latest BBC Forecast I just watched on bbc news 24 was laughable, they didn't even have the CURRENT precipitation charts right, what I am seeing right now on Rain today and what their graphics were showing was a million miles away from each other.
Regardless of what it was showing, however, there's little hope of us in the SE seeing any snow tomorrow.
Who knows what the rest of the week has in store, maybe a few snow showers here and there, but I doubt we'll be seeing anything other than a dusting.
a complete anti climax if you ask me, only those in E.Anglia in our region are going to get anything.
The BBC don't even think that first band of showers will even get to us, so it'll be just plain old rain, with no preceding snow and no snow on the back edge...IF YOU BELIEVE THEIR CHARTS....which I don't as it bore no resemblance what so ever to any of the charts available
How do you know what's going to happen snow-wise when even the met office don't?! Looks quite exciting for us this week regardless of tomorrow IMHO. At least you're not living in a cardboard box under a motorway flyover wondering if you'll freeze to death. Get a grip.
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To be honest, I'm mainly concerned that I'm going to look silly for telling all my family and friends to expect snow tomorrow
Lesson learnt then! Best thing to say is there is a chance of snow coming, covers your back then if it all goes t*ts up
Seriously though, I'm quite excited about tomorrow and this week, loads better than what we have had so far this winter. -
I'm expecting rain tomorrow and then to miss out on the snow showers from Tuesday onwards as they hug the coast. If I see any snow at all it will be a bonus.
I consider seeing any snow at all in the UK a bonus, so this week looks great. Remember 2 weeks ago when it just looked zonal and mild for weeks on end?
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Looks like a great week to come for coldies, tomorrow on a knife edge but really cold after that with possible troughs moving in from the N Sea across our region
Here's hoping! -
Monday giving me a headache lol, no idea if its gonna be rain, snow or UFOs
Not long to wait. Will we be making snow angels or splashing in puddles?! If Monday doesn't deliver snow then I'm sure the rest of the week will be interesting. -
Going to be very marginal for the south east I fear, particulary to the south of London. However, the front could become very slow moving over our region giving a longer period of snow after the blasted warm sector has buggered off.
The latest fax chart shows the warm sector shunted west quite considerably...not much of a warm sector at all tbh, with our region under -4 to -8 850s. Looks better
but of course could change. Bit tense! -
Looking at the latest fax charts the warm sector on Monday has been shunted west with much of England under -5 to -8 850s....I'd say UPGRADE
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Nobody else pleased by those fax charts?
Warm sector midday Monday shunted west to Cornwall?
Lovely occluded front curling round in -6/-7 uppers right over the South East overnight on Monday/Tuesday?
No? Anyone? Oh well.....
By the way, the zero hour fax looks as though someone got bored and decided to see how many fronts they could possibly squeeze in.
I'm excited
Get that warm sector as far west as possible. -
The trend is not your friend this eve for monday.
Last night there were stories of "the snow crippling everything in the SE".
When will people on here ever learn?
These models are fickle so-and-sos.....bit like the actual weather in the UK!
I agree that many of the wild claims on here are ridiculous/hysterical (and ive said so). I've been very cautious about this cold spell. My point was that snow is very hard to forecast and we may well see changes up until the event itself on Monday, so best to leave out the IMBY comments.
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Dont u just hate those warm sectors!
Even the SE are doomed! Last night's runs for monday looked so promising.
The runs will change again, Mondays event is very uncertain, there may be lots of snow or hardly any ppn at all. Don't know how people on here seem to know what's going to happen and the folks at the MO are unsure...
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There seems to be a warm sector on the second low which looks like hitting areas to the south of London, potentially ruining what would otherwise be a good snow event for me.
Too far away to be able to pinpoint snow with that degree of accuracy. No point stressing about it now.
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Of course the ECM can sometimes be the second or third model at times, much like man utd can be beaten at times, however averaged over a long period of time it is the top model, and most people on here will state that and were stating it when we had the issue of the shortwave and where it was going to go.
My major point is that if the big three are not singing from the same sheet then don't discount anything. Surely that is fair enough?
Yes quite right IMHO. However the majority of models have been going for cold/blocked with one or two (be it ECM or GFS) throwing out other solutions before changing back. The outlook therefore is weighted towards cold/blocked but of course nothing is certain. A lot of cold bias goes on here which makes people scorn any model showing mild solutions, be it the model they were touting as infallible a few hours before....makes me laugh
Hope you all see some snow!
London & South East Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
Snow quite heavy here now, good sized flakes
Even if it rains later its so nice to see.