stainesbloke
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Posts posted by stainesbloke
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Wonder what some people on here would do if something seriously bad happened to them? Week 2 of winter and its all over already....yeah right, grow up! It obviously never snows in Jan-Feb lol...
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Well the 06z has got to be the most awful run yet if you are looking at it for potential cold and snow (which let's face it most of us on here do).
And to end it all off, we end up with the beginnings of a Bartlett High...ohh well...there's always next winter (JOKE)
Disagree, still think there is potential. Please stop posting vile charts deep in FI, it's not gonna happen!
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and it will be shaun. dont confuse 'below av temps' with 'guaranteed snow cover'. thats like saying the team with the most corners always wins.
Yes, unfortunately colder than average doesn't mean snow. So far Dec has not followed normal patterns, some areas have seen significant snowfall which is unusual for this early in winter. Plenty of time to get more favourable synoptics, with blocking patterns remaining in some form. Keep optimistic
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The facts are that although we all find the science side interesting especially with the strat Side involved, 90% of us are massive coldies and want snow. We were on the way to something big the models had us believe , only to be let down at last minute. It teaches us all something I guess, it's just so frustrating when everything appeared to be in our favour.
True, it is frustrating and a let-down if you want cold/snow (which I really do) but it looks like its not our time to get that just now. Teaches us all to regard chart outputs as possibilities not something 'nailed on'...I've seen things go pear shaped more times than I can remember, but also seen things go right unexpectedly many times too! With cold remaining in Europe who knows? Jan/Feb could be good, don't get too down about it.
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Isn't it amazing that the difference between a very wintry ending week with lots of snow or a very mild ending week with gales and heavy rain is all down to the low moving a couple of hundred miles to a more favoured position or the position of it stalling against the block.
All the charts, data etc and really it just boils down to something as simple as that.I honestly dont think the charts/METO have a got a clue beyond Thurday,possibly Wednesday.
Is it fair to say to say that most weather data centres struggle forecasting blocking around the UK?
I
Most definitely. Blocking trends can be picked up quite far in advance but its the details which are pretty much unforecastable until very close to the event itself. As we know the details changing can have big implications for the UK...some interesting weather coming up though I haven't got a clue as to exactly what!
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Sometimes we see very stubborn blocking systems and indeed many times they can be a hindrance. This coming block as no intentions of moving very far and this will see the Atlantic get held, and it looks like over or close to us. This really sets us up for a potential soaking, and probably some pretty stormy weather too. The real cold is not going to get a chance to move over us and thus any snow will be shortlived, indeed I suspect most of us won't get any. It'll be and feel cold yes...
Where do we go from here, well there's RJS thoughts, MetO thoughts, maybe a sobering and realistic thought. GP suggested too that the tank will need refuelling as the first spillage of serious cold will take time to replenish from the north before another surge......well the deep cold isn't looking like even reaching us so I think we got some waiting to do.
BFTP
Don't necessarily agree, the cold stays close to our east on the runs so any low pressure moving further south than expected could allow the cold in. I don't think we will know til Wednesday!
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If it sets up just right, the cold could come sweeping in from the continent, just along the west side of the UK, and stall. That would be a result.
Big result!
Not massively likely just yet but with 5 days to go til the breakdown, who knows? These types of model scenarios were a lot more common back in the late 70s and through the 80s, when we ended up with a lot of snowfall on many occasions. I'm keeping expectations low to avoid getting carried away lol. -
It's the angle of the breakdown that is most interesting to me, yesterday it was west to east meaning the mild could sweep in much faster but today it looks more like a sw/ne attack which allows cold SEly winds ahead of it and with even more undercut the mild advance could be stopped and even forced south again, it's more on a knife edge today whereas yesterday it looked a foregone conclusion, we will now find out how strong this cold block is going to be. A very interesting week ahead.
Yes, each run seems to favour the cold block that little bit more. Still 5 days away so the details will change but it doesn't look like a clean sweep by the Atlantic by any means. Great time to be model watching! Even if we don't see exactly what we want.
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The models show increased chances of easterly winds returning after next weekend. The high over Scandinavia/W Russia doesn't want to go anywhere fast...indeed the mild incursion could well drastically change in the next few days. Fascinating stuff, good to see the forum getting back to actual model discussion.
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Yes we all know that . But the super computers seemed to have forgotten for several days only to remember again some time yesterday.
Not helped by people massively over ramping about charts a week away.
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What still gets me every year is this: Why are these massive model flips always and I mean always, biased to Mild?
I still don't get how all of the models only saw something that was a fundamental huge change -at the last moment? It's like having a car go into reverse gear as it was approaching cruising speed-unbelievable.
Do these computers secretly talk to each other and try to deliberately wind us up and let us go banging blindly into the skirting boards of disappointment as opposed to through the architraving of desire
Because that's what this country usually experiences: mild, westerly dominated weather. NW Europe has a MILD, MARITIME climate all year round. Extremes of any sort are the exception. Plus weather from the East is particularly difficult to pinpoint to any degree of accuracy. That's why basing opinions on charts in FI is always a gamble. People should know better....but then they'd be earning a nice wage working at the MO!
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Could be a lot worse, less of the doom and gloom! Freezing, snowy Decembers are quite rare, plus we are only in week 2 of winter, hardly a 'write-off'. Think the mild possibility has been overplayed but its a case of wait and see.
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Trying to be glass half full. Reality sucks.
Really. You could be living out of a cardboard box, have to walk 10 miles for water or be dying of cancer. I think a less favourable run of weather charts doesn't quite compare.
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I tell you what - this GEFS ensemble control at T180 is a 1962/63 scenario with an elongated low pressure signal sat right underneath a huge belt of anomalous high pressure.
If you dont believe me here is Jan 3rd 1963 with a bit of Siberian vortex poised in the background. Hmmm
Quite! Even in that mega winter there were some milder blips. Next week looks very interesting, especially next weekend.....keep that low from coming too far north and we should see a bitter easterly flow with some heavy snow in the south. Yah!
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Cold, sunny and snowless, yawn
Still WAY better than overcast, windy and mild.
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Aaaaaaah! I remember that week well - we got buried!
In fact I remember watching that actual forecast1
I remember it well, too. Interestingly, that clip showed recored high temps across the NE of the USA at the time....Washington DC hit 22C two days ago....some similarities showing already?
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I'm getting quite excited by the charts now
It's pointless worrying about where will get snow or rain, the main thing is the trend to keep high pressure to our N-NE for the foreseeable future allowing ever colder uppers to move over the UK. The SW will always be at most risk from the Atlantic but that can (and has many times in the past) result in some great battle-ground scenarios. These situations are probably the hardest to predict in our country. Encouraging signs are that high pressure stays strong to our N right through to the end of the model runs, which to me indicates any possible Atlantic incursions will be short-lived. Only time will tell I guess! -
So what makes you guys think it will be a snowy easterly?? Uppers at -7/-8 for most, I can see coastal areas effected, but don't no weather it will be enough to carry them inland?
What's ppls take on tomorrow's event? Snow to rain to snow? Rain with snow on hills throughout?
Often on an easterly there are quite sudden trough developments moving westwards that can dump inches of snow inland, it's happened quite a few times that I can remember. Tomorrow I reckon it will be more of a rain event in the south at least, could be wrong tho!
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Good to see model upgrades instead of the usual downgrades! Quite excited now, although that could be due to the snow coming down
Hopefully the charts can keep the theme going today. -
Me too as I live about 2 miles from you lol! But I think it is going to be a bit touch and go TBH..Lamp post watching and radar watching, let's just see what happens, the quicker the cold air can dig in the better.
Looks like lamppost watch tomorrow then
Unfortunately we live in an area that is often the last place to see snow, we need some really cold air to dig in. It's very possible IMHO, I reckon it's going to be a while longer tho. Still, pretty good charts for the beginning of winter...plus much of Europe now is getting cold. -
Good post Gavin, whilst the majority here are looking at the longer term outputs and trends, (and nothing wrong with that by the way) there are some very good synoptics in the shorter term to give many members a 'white surprise' over the next 24-60 hours.....GFS 06z shows a band of rain/sleet/snow moving steadily southwards across the nation giving a covering in many places.....A few charts to illustrate
First of all, T850 temps at 0600, one parameter conducive to snowfall in place, with a pool of colder T850's flooding southwards
Secondly dewpoints at 0600 & 1200z, a second tick in the box for snowfall parameters, again colder dew poimts flood southwards as shown by the snapshot charts
and also the progged preciptation & precipitation type charts for the same time periods
as you can see, snow potential for many parts over the next 24 or so hours, some areas could see substantial accumulations......and we haven't even touched on the potential for thursday night into friday!
Liking those precip charts a lot!!
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The roller coaster ride continues, I think I'm a bit worn out lol
Can't make much sense from the charts at the moment, I respect those who can see the trends and are sticking to their guns. It looks like Europe will be getting chilly very soon which is a big boost to our cold potential. Have a feeling it's going to take a while to get here though. Looking at signs in Nature (waxwings, berries, squirrels gorging themselves) am quite hopeful of a decent Winter arriving soon! -
Ithink you will find that anything more than a week away on the models will come the time be almost deff not in line with the original forecast.You will here folk forecast severe weather based on the strat,nao,no,mjo ete ete.The truth is if you stick around the 120-144 hour mark it will be close but that said the fax charts are at the moment swinging and changing!!!.Living on an island at our latitude makes the weather interesting but very difficult to forecast lol
Definitely! Cold and snow are always really difficult to forecast in the UK. I've been enjoying the model output over the last few weeks, it's good to be getting a normal early winter rather than just raging south westerlies
I reckon the next few weeks will be interesting for sure, I just hope the chances of proper cold are not continually shunted into FI. -
Well we are still chasing the possibility of cold in the next couple of weeks.....was doing that 2 weeks ago and so far there has been nothing more than normal early Winter weather, at least here in the SE. I like that the charts keep pointing to a blocked scenario but that's still quite a long way from snow/deep cold over the UK. The shorter term looks more interesting IMO, anything after 5 days is anyone's guess.
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Like your optimism
Hoping for SOME sign of Atlantic weakening as today's runs have been quite poor for cold. Actually I'm hoping the Russian high buggers off east, letting the Atlantic in for a bit then opening the door to the north.