stainesbloke
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Posts posted by stainesbloke
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It's not really to do with the Scandi high pushing back - it is to do with the split vortices. Crossing the bridge from one to tother requires a big jump and that is why I suspect the ECM is wrong. As soon as the jet reaches mid Atlantic it loses the potential vorticity element of the Canadian sector and strong thermal gradient that this brings and will lose power immediately - hence the block appears to hold.
Interesting. Would you say then that it looks likely that the jet will sink SE and keep heights to our NE, rather than ride over the top of the Scandi high as often happens?
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There is always the possibility of that front stalling and intensifying over the SE. The MET O are keeping tight-lipped at the moment and are stating that confidence is 'low' about the quantities of snowfall, particularly for southern and southeastern parts. Anything from a few cm to a very disruptive event!
Yes, if that front stalls over the SE with those cold uppers moving in the ppn could well intensify for a few hours.
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Adding some charts to highlight the area members need to keep an eye on in future models runs.
Poor, more likely to see LP going over the top of the HP.
Much better, more likely to see LP going under.
Basically the GFS can't make up its mind between the ECM/UKMO although like I said earlier its interesting the poorer 06Z runs follow the ECM!
Great post
basically that is the deciding factor at this stage. We definitely want to see the second chart verify for extended cold, otherwise the Atlantic comes in quite quickly. -
From a selfish perspective I'm glad the ECM is showing a quick breakdown - means less disruption to travel, more chance of football not being postponed again etc. The last prolonged cold spell we had here was miserable in the end - slush and ice hanging around for days on end, scraping windscreens off over and over morning and evening. Much prefer an interesting frontal snow event then a quick return to normality.
I've watched these forums for a number of years, and anecdotally it seems when one of the big three is markedly at odds with the others on successive runs at 72 - 96, then the outcome is usually the one which advertises a return to normal conditions. I think a notable exception was 2010? If I had to put my mortgage on an outcome, ECM is the safest bet.
With you regarding a quick breakdown, nothing worse than days of half melted slush and temps hovering just above freezing. Not sure about the ECM though...it may well be a mild outlier, we shall see.
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No snow forecast for Bristol as usual. We had none last year, and about an inch in December 2010, despite being encircled by the stuff. I don't think the Gods like me! Great thread this. If we get more than a mm of slush I'll he surprised. Rant over.
Cold uppers moving westwards each run of the GFS so hopefully much of the west will get to see some snow this coming week
Fingers crossed. -
I agree. I tried to say that earlier but it didn't go down too well. An interesting few days to come before then though.
Lol, I bet it didn't
I'm just commenting on what I see on the 18z GFS, by tomorrow could be showing cold for longer with any luck. I'm a little concerned with all that energy barrelling out of NE Canada...but it's proper FI so all to play for. Worst case it goes the same way as December this time next week but some great snow potential before then which I'm happy to see. -
Very interesting week to come for many areas, a return to zonal by next weekend though as modelled by the GFS tonight. I wonder if it will be that straightforward. Hopefully the heights to our NE can persist and angle favourably otherwise it's looking a lot like December.
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Already changes with the cold uppers not extending west as quick as the 12z so the snow Saturday is now a non-event for the south:
18z:
12z: Lots of changes even at T30.
To be fair snow wasn't ever really widely forecast for the South on Sat, especially at lower levels. Not to say it won't happen, though I reckon it will be a mainly rain event.
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Hi,
Yes it's set in stone for ice and snow this weekend and then much more as we go through next week, it won't go pear shaped now, we have gone beyond the tipping point from fantasy charts to reality..the time to get hysterical has arrived
So when is the tipping point? From past experience (have been weather watching since the 80s) it's t24 for me regarding snowfall. Even less at times. Some good potential showing for sure but the first snow event is over 3 days away still.
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It's great to have the gfs onboard but I think it's still too progressive in shunting the coldest uppers further southeast and it's nothing like the meto update today so I would go with the ukmo 12z which has an undercut and would keep the very cold spell going on and on. We can now relax and just enjoy the unfolding drama because the very cold and snowy spell is now set in stone. Looking into next week, heathrow airport will finally be able to use their new equipment following the dec 2010 fiasco, plenty of snow clearing next week for them and plenty of snow for everyone else too but I don't think the cold block will be eroded like the gfs 12z shows.
The beast is yet to come
Looking better I agree but 'set in stone'? How many times have I read those words on here only for things to go pear shaped. Lets calm the hysteria down and keep the analysis going please.
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according to the METO sunday and monday going to be snowy in my area, that will do for me, the rest of the winter can do what it likes, just want to see snow falling, its all i crave lol
Me too, a few days of cold and snow would be loads better than what we have endured for much of the winter so far.
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Well, we are still no closer to any detail as to what to expect from the current chart's, something we will have to get used to over the next week or two, very uncertain times ahead.. one thing for shure is, we are now entering the predicted cold spell, with the cold set-up in place and the SSW predicted the models are just everywhere, with FI at around t74hr.
Latest MET update call's for battleground snowfall situations over much of the country next week, with ice days and sharp frost's, hopefully the cold will win out bringing severe cold if the background signals are taken into consideration...
This winter must be one of the most interesting here on NW for model watching i have ever witnessed, very complicated synoptic's indeed.
Indeed, so much uncertainty. We need that jet going south and the cold should then become entrenched across the UK. Some potential for large snowfall totals I reckon.
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Well some of the more cautious folk did warn yesterday that there was little margin for error and any unfavourable shift could easily lead to the pattern tracking further north as opposed to south, could this be what we're currently seeing?
In a word, yes. Although until the jet actually decides which way it's going to go we won't know with any degree of certainty and with the SSW filtering in things will no doubt change again.
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Strength and direction of the jet stream will be the deciding factor here, hopefully it will move S and not NE as shown by the 6z.
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Pretty awful looking 06z GFS this morning for longer term hopes, just blasts away the cold weather and there is so littler northern blocking...putrid run in the longer term.
I'm not surprised, though with effects of the SSW filtering in there should be quite big changes in model output from day to day. Something to keep an eye on anyway.
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So how do all those posters who were being so smug about the gfs and it's mild outlook being correct feel now, you all have egg on your faces.
Actually come to think of it they've all been very quiet and not been posting, I wonder why lol
Not been posting much because of posts like this. The forums are for people to post opinions on future output not get involved in silly arguments etc etc. Funny how the ECM now going for mild in a week, just shows how ridiculous it is getting overexcited and overhyping any charts over t96. We will see more changes, as things stand now looks like a week of cold and snow potential then a return to milder conditions.
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Won't the Azores high on that fax chart help push the Atlantic back in?
Quite possibly, though fairly slowly and with some frontal snow IMHO. Hopefully this won't be a window for milder air to come in.
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Just another groundhog day, whatever the outcome many members will remember this period simply for the model 'clashes'.
This morning before going to work it looked like the zonal train was becoming evident, now this evening somewhat veering back to the cold side.
Exactly! Potential abounds for sure but so does the possibility of it turning milder next week. When it's snowing outside I'll get excited, til then I'm staying very cautious.
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Can you post some charts to backup why you think mild is more likely? From where i'm sitting, it's everything against the GFS.
If everything else was showing mild but the GFS was showing cold, would you still favour the GFS?
Yes, I think I would based on events this winter. I'm not saying the other models are rubbish or having a go at anyone's views. Just expressing an opinion/feeling but if I'm wrong I've no problem saying so
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I'd agree with you IF the GFS ensembles were supportive but at the moment they're not, with even high resolution models disagreeing with the GFS now I think it's a pretty safe bet that the GFS has this wrong.
Everyone keeps bringing up December but that doesn't mean anything, this is a completely different situation and setup
Everyone is bringing up Decembers fail because its all happening again. Agree that it's a different setup but a mild outlook looks increasingly likely in the medium term to me with snow potential for this weekend downgrading too. Not what I'd like to see of course! But am keeping my feet firmly planted rather than get carried away.
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Had a couple of texts from friends/family - 'why haven't you told me about this' etc....
Told them milder on Wednesday.
I can't believe they can readily disregard the GFS when the ECM could easily have gone that way and I believe will - later.
Agree. The GFS appears to be handling things far better than the other models this winter, just like in December. Any SSW effects will take longer to show up I reckon but for the medium term I'd say it will be a return to milder conditions.
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So, millions if not billions spent on super Computers, numerous forecasters with degrees in meteorolgy and not one of them can say what the weather be like in four/five days time?
Is the Met Office worth the money we pay in taxes?
Oh God here we go....somebody get me some rope lol
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The Met Office is forecasting 6 celsius and heavy rain for S Wales on saturday (on the desktop widget you can download from their website). This was updated at 19:00 hours today. Can any experienced forecasters explain why their interpretation of the models differs from much of what is suggested in this forum, with many here talking about a snow event on saturday in southern Britain? Many thanks
I'm definitely not an experienced forecaster but I'd suggest rain is more likely in S Wales initially as it is further from the cold air coming in from the E.
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Foundations are set 72-96 hrs on the ECM 12z.
Make of that what you will.
Stillgood to be cautious though. A backtrack on the GFS 18z towards the ECM and I think I'll do myself a favour and go bed early tonight!
Ok I'm probably being overly cautious, the ECM is going the right way again, very interested to see what the GFS will be modelling this evening. Like you say if good then I'll relax a little lol...
basically that is the deciding factor at this stage. We definitely want to see the second chart verify for extended cold, otherwise the Atlantic comes in quite quickly.
I'm just commenting on what I see on the 18z GFS, by tomorrow could be showing cold for longer with any luck. I'm a little concerned with all that energy barrelling out of NE Canada...but it's proper FI so all to play for. Worst case it goes the same way as December this time next week but some great snow potential before then which I'm happy to see.
Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
That would be crap if it happened
Though the BBC use MO data and that doesn't mention rain for anywhere other than Wales/SW England.