Weather-history

If you have got altitude then you have got a chance but I'm not convinced at lower levels. Manchester Airport latest TAF suggest nothing wintry as regards to the frontal system. Any showers that follow brings more hope but around here, the wind direction doesn't look favourable. It has been one of those seasons where the cards and dice are just stacked and loaded against us.

15 years ago

Crikey we actually managed an air frost, infact it is the coldest since November!

What has happened to Philip Eden's site? http://www.climate-uk.com Not updated since end of November, I hope he is OK.

Nothing wintry in Manchester Airport's latest TAF, just going for heavy rain. long-TAF: EGCC 100502Z 1006/1112 17008KT 9999 FEW025 PROB40 TEMPO 1010/1023 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 1012/1015 26010KT BECMG 1021/1024 18007KT BECMG 1103/1106 17017KT TEMPO 1104/1108 18020G30KT 7000 RA BKN013 PROB30 TEMPO 1104/1108 4000 +RA BKN009 BECMG 1106/1109 24014KT PROB40 TEMPO 1108/1112 23017G27KT 7000 SHRA

I am not convinced by Tuesday's system bringing anything wintry away from high ground. Models seem to move it through briskly as well. I remember how March 1995 wintry spell began with a trough bringing initially rain then it suddenly turned to snow within a minute. That could happen I suppose.

Thinking about it, the 90s did have some half decent Scandi high easterly spells such as Feb 1991, November 1993, February 1994, December 1995, January 1996, December 1996 and January 1997 but since then easterlies have largely been weak efforts, February 2005 was probably the most prolonged, February 2009 was potent but brief. Funny how Scandi high easterly spells have in short supply in recent times.

I'm afraid the only food being dished up in this thread is tripe.

This a pretty decent winter month, at least around here anyway with snowfalls and a good covering. CET: 3.2C Forecasts got the breakdown of the cold weather wrong. John Kettley was sure that it would breakdown quickly with Atlantic making a complete break through on the Countryfile forecast. Infact although there was something of a breakdown, the cold airmass to the east came back and there were more snowfalls the following week. When he did the following Countryfile forecast, he admitted it didn't go to plan but he still got the breakdown timing wrong even though he said he was more certain. We had one of the biggest snowfalls for this area for the 1990s. Forecasts from that month http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqZ6S8BiQajIq9rorYUEQpJ

Look at this FAX chart http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif?08-18 And ask yourself, where is there any high pressure? The highest isobar showing I can work out is 1028mb way down towards the Azores and that is it in that whole area which covers many hundreds of square miles.

"Great rain had fallen without any frost or seasonable cold, not only in England, but in Sweden and the most northern parts, being here near as warm as at Midsummer in some years..." From John Evelyn's diary of January 1662

Manchester Winter Index is currently just 5 It got to 20 in 1988-89 I think there is a good chance this winter could hit a new low.

Why?Still a lot can be learnt and studied.

Another February goes by without being notably cold, assuming the models don't suddenly flip during the second half. Last one was 1991, I feel the statistical elastic band is stretching on this one. We saw last year, after the domination of mild Marches of the last 25 years, a really cold March popped up. Feel only a matter of time, it'll happen for February.

Well I'm not sure about widespread snow but wintry prospects to me looks more widespread in regards to at least Pennines, Welsh Mountains and the hills of Northern Ireland and Eire going off those uppers on ECM 12z at 96hrs than Purga suggests.

Are you sure about that because this the uppers for 96hrs ECM 12z?http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

I don't agree I think we are well in with a chance, just about 83mm to go.

November-December 2010 was a severe winter spell or even two. The CET for late November-Christmas 2010 was colder than January 1940 which everyone recognises as a severe winter month.

Hopefully we won't get into this part of this list but it's not looking good at the moment. Wettest February on record for England and Wales (mm) 158.6 1833 152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 132.0 1916 131.7 1900 130.0 1848 129.6 1966 129.1 1768 124.2 1925 123.5 1915 116.0 1918 115.3 1812 115.1 2002 114.9 1995 114.1 1851 114.0 1823 113.5 1776 112.1 1904 111.6 2007

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales 423.0 1914-15 420.9 1989-90 418.3 1876-77 415.6 1994-95 388.3 1993-94 380.6 1868-69 374.3 1959-60 373.5 1915-16 363.0 1965-66 362.0 1936-37 340.8 2013-14 up to 5th Feb.

The wettest Spring on record by the way was in 1782........

The lengthening period of daylight becoming more and more evident. Not dark at 5PM now.

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales 423.0 1914-15 420.9 1989-90 418.3 1876-77 415.6 1994-95 388.3 1993-94 380.6 1868-69 374.3 1959-60 373.5 1915-16 363.0 1965-66 362.0 1936-37 340.0 1976-77 337.2 1911-12 335.2 1978-79 332.8 2013-14 up to 4th February

Sorry about the quality, 18 years ago!