Weather-history

Mentioned in this excellent site http://www.phenomena.org.uk/page29/page31/page31.html

That wouldn't be the same CFS that quite often suggested a northerly blocked winter during the autumn by any chance?

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 135.7 1906 134.3 1809 131.0 1994 129.0 1937 128.8 1804 128.6 1999 128.6 1806 128.4 1990 127.6 1986 125.3 1960 125.1 1930 124.4 1936 124.4 1913 124.2 1975 124.3 1791 122.8 1875 122.7 2004 122.7 1828 122.4 1919 120.6 1974 120.4 1998 120.2 1886 119.3 1817 118.9 1961 118.6 1786 118.0 1900 117.6 1866 117.6 1800 116.5 1851 116.2 1796 115.3 1993 114.5 1938 114.1 1926 114.0 1962 113.1 1978 112.5 1971 112.3 1860 111. 2014 up to 18th

Personally I would get rid of the "like this" button. I can live without it, although I have pressed it on a few occasions. Most of the time it just exposes the type of weather bias and indeed other biases of the person who pressed it.

You say it is better than GFS 12z run, I think it's worse in as much as that at least GFS gives a cold blast of uppers, so at least someone can get something wintry out of it. ECM 12z has the cold uppers mixed out and nothing unless you are on high ground.

And two months later

No it's OKOh dear From the Times of October 1931

Original thread was archived but I wanted to add a letter written about this winter The winter of 1931-32 was virtually snowless December 1931: Generally anticyclonic and mild with a little snow from a northerly at the end of the month. January 1932 was a very mild month wth a CET of 6.3. The weather pattern was set in stone through the month with high pressure to the southeast and low pressure to the northwest and the UK in a mild southwesterly flow. Only on the 7th was there with a wind with a notable northerly component. This resulted in a mild month with few frosts and little snow. On the 18th, in Morayshire, a maximum of 16.1C was recorded due to the Fohn effect also 15.6C at Llandudno. The night of the 2nd/3rd January was exceptionally mild Minima 12.8C at Chester and Liverpool February 1932 was a generally cold and very anticyclonic month. As a result of the anticyclonic conditions, it was an exceptionally dry month. December 1931 CET: 5.3 (+0.8] January 1932 CET: 6.3 (+2.1) 2th-6th: 9.9 16th-20th: 9.6 February 1932 CET 2.9 (-1.3) 8th-21st: 1.4 February is the 3rd driest February on record with just 8.9mm for England and Wales. For Scotland and Northern Ireland, February is the driest February in the Areal series for both countries. Not surprisingly, the winter of 1931-32 was virtually snowless Stornoway recorded only 3 days of falling snow in the whole of the winter months. Thats how bad winter 1931-32 was for snow. Pressure anomalies and means for February 1932 The mean pressure reading for February 1932 Malin Head: 1035.4mb (+25.7mb) Stornoway: 1034.8mb (+27.0mb) Pretty remarkable figures. Seathwaite, normally, a wet place recorded no rainfall during the month. A letter by the Reverend Dansey of Hereford from 1st March 1932 "Last autumn the press made laudable efforts to encourage winter sports in Scotland. There was "every sign of a hard winter"; so said the writers. But the weather took exception to these marks. Owing to the intense anticylonic conditions since mid January and the exceptional mildness preceding them, Scotland seems to have had the most snowless winter on record. Mr Seton Gordon, writing from Skye on February 9th, said that there was no snow at all on the Cullins or the higher Rossshire hills at 3500ft. Such a state of things must be unprecedented in living memory. At the end of February, Ben Nevis had only a slight coating on its upper 500ft, instead of a normal 6ft, extending down to 1000ft or so above sea level. The Fort William rainfall in February was only 0.14in, which must be a record for any month at that wet station. All the Scottish salmon rivers are at a low summer level and prospects hopeless at the time of writing since there are no vast accumulations of snow on the hills to keep up their level through the early summer as is invariably the case."

I saw fog precipitate during January 1992, gave a real winter wonderland scene. There was wet snow during mid February 1992 but other than that nothing for 1991-92 winter months. It was the anticyclonicity that was the killer for snow. 1991-92 and 1992-93 weren't especially mild but it had anticylonic spells. The most snowless winters tend to be the ones that have mild zonal and dry anticylonic spells mix. With zonality, you always got a chance of seeing something from a northerly toppler say but you get anticylonic spells as well, well there is no chance of snow in those spells. 1974-75 had a very mild zonal spell through December and January but even then some areas did see snow in the second half that January. The pattern changed in February but straight into an anticylonic spell and that just about killed snow chances for the rest of the winter. Snow came in the spring. 2007-2008 saw anticylonic spells in December and February which stopped snow chances and what snow chances happened were in the zonal pattern and from the short lived NEly high.

Unfortunately, the trend seems to be weakening, ECM latest is underwhelming. http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html

Can anyone say for definite? We had "experts" only 7 years ago predicting a big solar maximum. Evidence was even said to be mounting! http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/

Looks a coolish week next week with the chance of some frosts on at least of a couple nights.

For England and Wales Dec 09: 109.1mmJan 10: 75.3mmFeb 10: 87.2mm

About 233mm so far. Incidentally the two coldest winters since 62-63 ie 1978-79 and 2009-10 were on the "wet" side, interestingly.

I really hate terms like that even said in jest or with tongue in cheek. If it were like mid February 1998, yeah but....A) blowtorch? August 2003 was a blowtorch. B] BBQ? Rain ruins BBQs in summer, people are discouraged having BBQs when it raining. No way this winter thus far can be even jokingly called a BBQ one considering how wet it has been.

The very wet spell of November-December 1929 continued into the January of 1930. The 12th of January was a stormy day Gusts include 102mph at Falmouth 97mph at Scilly 83mph at Shoeburyness 77mph at Croydon Many trees were uprooted. It was also very mild at times 13.3C at Manchester and Dublin on 9th 15.6C at Greenwich on 19th The wet spell finally ended during early February with more anticyclonic blocking. It also became chillier with more snow and frost January CET: 5.6C February CET: 2.5C Rainfall to 1881-1915 average England and Wales January 170% February 46% Scotland January 131% February 32% Ireland January 152% February 28%

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 135.7 1906 134.3 1809 131.0 1994 129.0 1937 128.8 1804 128.6 1999 128.6 1806 128.4 1990 127.6 1986 125.3 1960 125.1 1930 124.4 1936 124.4 1913 124.2 1975 124.3 1791 122.8 1875 122.7 2004 122.7 1828 122.4 1919 120.6 1974 120.4 1998 120.2 1886 119.3 1817 118.9 1961 118.6 1786 118.0 1900 117.6 1866 117.6 1800 116.5 1851 116.2 1796 115.3 1993 114.5 1938 114.1 1926 114.0 1962 113.1 1978 112.5 1971 112.3 1860 110.3 1863 109.9 1970 109.4 1922 109.1 1873 108.7 1915 108.7 1884 108.3 1920 107.2 1921 107.2 1912 106.8 1942 106.8 1867 106.3 1890 105.6 1789 105.4 1774 104.8 1965 104.5 1959 102.8 1977 102.4 1983 101.8 1869 101.7 1840 101.6 1846 101.5 1969 101.1 1819 100.9 1895 100.8 1972 100.5 2007 100. 2014 up to 16th

It wasn't good for hill farmers and lambing but it could have been a hell of a lot worse if nature wasn't in suspended animation thanks to the chilly January and February. If it had been a pretty mild January and February then that March struck....

Interesting winter 1852-53, February was very cold and very snowy.

7.5C in 1916 followed by a snowy late February-March

LolThe annual NElyblast cold zonality and 1984 post.And you ask the question will we ever see cold zonality again? You ask will we ever see a cold April again, a couple of years back?Same old, same old.

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 135.7 1906 134.3 1809 131.0 1994 129.0 1937 128.8 1804 128.6 1999 128.6 1806 128.4 1990 127.6 1986 125.3 1960 125.1 1930 124.4 1936 124.4 1913 124.2 1975 124.3 1791 122.8 1875 122.7 2004 122.7 1828 122.4 1919 120.6 1974 120.4 1998 120.2 1886

For me, Paul, I didn't really have problems with the forecast, it was "shades of 76" that was the mistake. No long range forecast, IMO, should try and compare with a past season or have a sound bite. You are asking for trouble. It seems Madden and co haven't. Why do they go for the extreme?

How do members describe very zonal?Is very zonal, the rapid movement of low pressures from west to east? UKMO doesn't show that though as low pressures become slow moving near us bit like a log jam.