Weather-history

Well you can't have experienced many of them if that is your threshold. Your avatar says Manchester, I live to the west of the conurbation and those type of snowfalls and to last that long are rare to say the least around here.

One of these will be nice now

At least 5.6C

Crikey, just 2007-08? I go even further back worst since......

Just 1! That's how bad it was for wintry weather. However I had seen lying snow in November 1988, I have seen nothing so far. Further to that, at least the reason for the lack of wintry weather was the very mild nature of December 1988 and January 1989. We see Bartlett charts, no chance. Although December and January have been mild, they were not as mild as those two and we have had opportunities that seem to have gone AWOL, the northerly that vanished into thin air at the start of December, the polar maritime air around Christmas which brought a little bit of wintriness and a frost. Now we have been suckered by the high pressure to the east for the last few days, will it or won't it, suckered by polar maritime air coming in from the west.I feel like I have been made a mug by this winter, suckered by the charts. Every cold prospect has been downgraded next to nothing. Today is a prime example, a couple of days ago or so, it looked good for wintry showers, now it has turned into nothing.Really has been a Sod's law winter. Everything has been just on the wrong side of marginal, even minima temperatures have been just on the wrong side of freezing.I rather have a winter where you know where you stand such as with 1988-89, you see Bartlett, you know where you stand but not this type of winter, it's been horrendous compounded by the ruddy rain all the time.

I'm 99.99% certain of a snowless January now, not one snowflake and by the looks of it nothing for the first week of February.

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales Wettest winters 423.0 1914-15 420.9 1989-90 418.3 1876-77 415.6 1994-95 388.3 1993-94 380.6 1868-69 374.3 1959-60 373.5 1915-16 363.0 1965-66 362.0 1936-37 340.0 1976-77 337.2 1911-12 335.2 1978-79 332.6 1922-23 331.9 2000-01 331.7 1882-83 330.6 1883-84 330.4 1924-25 330.2 1929-30 329.4 1909-10 328.3 1934-35 327.8 2006-07 326.5 1979-80 323.9 1918-19 322.9 1899-00 320.1 1927-28 319.6 1790-91 318.9 1938-39 317.5 1983-84 316.5 2012-13 314.8 1827-28 313.0 1803-04 309.9 1960-61 309.2 1773-74 308.4 1947-48 306.7 1847-48 298.7 1872-73 298.0 1919-20 296.7 1977-78 295.0 1973-74 293.4 1987-88 293.2 1925-26 292.7 1957-58 292.2 1942-43 290.0 1935-36 289.8 1896-97 287.6 1969-70 286.9 1898-99 286.7 1871-72 284.5 1950-51 283.9 1999-2000 283.6 1903-04 282.1 1956-57 280.6 2007-08 280.4 1865-66 277.5 2002-03 277.4 1771-72 277.2 1945-46 276.0 1998-99 275.3 1832-33 275.1 1766-67 274.5 1808-09 274. 2013-14

The Manchester GFS 0z ensembles make grim reading if you want a decent cold or even just a dry spell. No sign of any. If anything the 2m temperatures get milder as we move through February. You begin to wonder just how wet this winter is going to turn out, it has already been very wet without even February contributing anything.

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 141. Up to 25th January

I'm not expecting anything. Showers around but it looks to me, most of them north of Manchester and LIverpool tonight due wind direction.

Not sure how you can tell from that chart alone.ECM does have -5C air coming under the belly of that lowhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0By 168hrs, there's -6C airhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

Manchester Winter Index is just 5 at the moment. In 1988-89, it reached just 20 2006-07, it was 21 1997-98, it was 25 1989-90, it was 26

Hold on. The last 4 op runs have all shown that rapidly developing low moving in at the end of next week. It's the track that has varied somewhat.So ECM has thus far been consistent with this. UKMO seems to a little bit overall the place, it downgrades the easterly, it blows up the low and now it downgrades the low and ups the easterly again a touch.

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 136. 2014 up to 24th

I have never written a post as downbeat as this but in terms of notable cold and snow, I have personally written off this winter now. Some may say why a) I am writing it off when next week looks interesting? b] I am writing it off when I know of historical past examples of notable late winter spells? Some places may get snowfalls next week but the cold uppers are mixed out during Monday, so it becomes increasingly marginal at low levels. Then when the winds go into the east, it's brief before we lose the flow and the uppers are not special anyway. The Atlantic threatens to move in at the end of next week. I'm not convinced it is going to bring a general snow event, it may not even bring in snow for low levels anyway by this stage but we shall see. As for February, I see two possible scenarios, more anticyclonicity of the Rex block type that limits precipitation or a continuation of what has plagued us a lot of this winter, Atlantic domination. I just don't see or feel a flip in the pressure pattern as has happened in the past for this winter. It feels a Sod's Law winter to me, when cold snowy scenarios have appeared in the charts and they have hardly been any it has to be said thus far, they have downgraded to virtually nothing such as the "northerly" during early December. Another example of the Sod Law nature of this winter is that around here it has dropped close to freezing but never actually got below, it has hovered about 1-2C at times. I don't recall such lack of wintriness by this stage in a winter even by 1988-89 and 2006-07 standards. I saw lying snow in November 1988 and by this stage in January 2007 I have seen falling snow. Nothing thus far. Just looking at meteorological winter itself, it's on a par with 1988-89 if not as mild. It just feels to me this winter is going nowhere, it's a non starter.

The ECM op run goes for a sub 964mb low at 144hrs to west of Western Isles. The ECM mean goes for instead a flabby 995 one instead. Says to me that not many of the ensembles support that deep low, the mean would be deeper and low more round if they did. Or is there a flaw to my logic?

Snow causes disruption in this country because we simply can't adapt to it most of the time. There should be no excuses that a couple of inches of snow should cause chaos. We do not get the great snowstorms that North America get.

So perhaps ECM was onto something last night? UKMO 12z has gone for this and GEM goes for it as well somewhat.

I wonder if ECM will blow up the low coming into the west again as it did during the last two operationals runs?

To show how time flies, it was this time last year that we had that heavy snow event that Friday night. Some places got a lot of snow.

They don't, nature is reactive not presumptive. If nature were presumptive then we would never have spring frost damage because nature would have anticipated it.

Every time I see Shannon entropy mentioned, I keep thinking of Del Shannon for some reason One of his song titles seem appropriate at times Keep Searchin' , what a lot of people who have wanted dry/cold/snowy weather have been doing this winter

19 years ago today!

It happened in 1868-69, the winter in between is the mildest on record with a CET of 6.8C