Weather-history

How do members describe very zonal?Is very zonal, the rapid movement of low pressures from west to east? UKMO doesn't show that though as low pressures become slow moving near us bit like a log jam.

Lol the UK is under colder 850hpa than Alaska for that chart!What would happen if "warm" uppers got within the Arctic circle?

It is possible and it has happened but not often.

Yes just look at early February 1996 and 12th March 2006. The problem is there is no cold air over France. If cold air was present over France, it would be very interesting.

Saw snow before Christmas 1999, which laid temporarily and a day of lying snow (Met Office rules) during mid February 2000 and there was a snow shower early March 2000, wet snow early April.

I'm not an expert but isn't part of the problem is that there no yellows and oranges associated with the Scandinavian high at the 500hpa level?

The most snowless winter I can remember was not any of the mildest ones, it was an anticyclonic one: 1991-92. Saw snow precipitation from freezing fog during mid late January which gave a covering. Proper snow came in mid February 1992 but it was wet. There was a little bit of snow in March one Friday night from showers and wet snow mid April but that was it.

Poor?It actually shows a chilly west/northwest airstream. Hills in our region could get something from thathttp://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html

Depends on what where the "cold" comes from. ECM shows quite a chilly westerly-northwesterly flow.

Only about 22 odd weeks before the nights starts drawing in again......

Jus to show the NAO is not the be all end all, if you look at the values for January 1990 and February 1991 on NOAA, they are exactly the same but the two months were totally different in character.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table It's the AO, where they differ, Jan 1990 was positive and Feb 1991 was negative.

That was the last time we had a February CET that was sub 2CAfter January and December 2010, March 2013, it is surely only a matter of time we get a notably cold February?

As I have said many a time before the problem I have with that argument is "what balances what out?" You say it could be payback for the cold snowy March but how do you know March 2013 was not payback for March 2012 and that Spring 2013 was payback for Spring 2011?If that was case then there would be no payback now as the "debt" has been settled or is it? How do we know next winter won't be payback for this winter?This is the problem.

Winter 1882-83 didn't begin until 6th March

The last noticeable easterly during January was in 1996. It took ages to develop though, the block was to NE but there was a stalemate across the UK, a bit like what some of the models have been showing. It wasn't until the final third of January went into the east and the last week when the very cold air arrived. Forecasts from January 1996 http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqOqjWCczNHeD-DGVCNNRe0

This time last year, I saw the first snow of that season.

CETs Dec 1781: 5.4 Jan 1782: 5.2 Feb 1782: 1.9 Dec 1852: 7.7 Jan 1853: 5.1 Feb 1853: 0.6 Dec 1872: 5.3 Jan 1873: 5.2 Feb 1873: 1.8 Dec 1929: 5.8 Jan 1930: 5.6 Feb 1930: 2.5 Dec 1931: 5.3 Jan 1932: 6.3 Feb 1932: 2.9

15 years ago

Winter 2009-10 wasn't actually dry overall, it was actually wetter than winters 2008-09, 2010-11 and 2011-12 for England and Wales not one of the months were that dry despite the blocking.

The SE regional snow depth cup? What's that all about? It would be funny if it end up being zero cm by winter's end.

Convective weather?We are getting now with hail.

16th July 2006

Yes, I notice that as well.Stratospheric warming is another. I first became aware of it on this site when Steve Murr mentioned it during early 2008. I don't recall anyone talking about this before or I wasn't aware of it. What I don't get it is why are forecasters suddenly talking about it now? I don't recall them talking about it 10 years ago or even 5 years ago? It has been known since the start of the 1950s. It seems to kicked off by the warming event of January 2009.I am not going to name names but I know of one professional forecaster who talks about it now as though he is an expert but why wasn't he talking about it 5 years ago?Why has it suddenly become an in thing?

9th July 2006

Lunar influences? Sceptical, very sceptical. Lunar phases are predictable, you can tell what phase the moon will be at a certain date in the year 3000. So why isn't the weather more predictable as a result? Because they are so many variables.