Weather-history

It happened in 1868-69, the winter in between is the mildest on record with a CET of 6.8C

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 135.7 1906 134.3 1809 131.0 1994 129.0 1937 128.8 1804 128.6 1999 128.6 1806 128.4 1990 127.6 1986 127. Up to 24th

November 1915 to March 1916, inclusive was remarkable for the extreme variation in the weather. November 1915 is the 2nd coldest November on record in the CET listings with a CET of 2.8. Apart from January 1908, it was colder than any January from 1898 to 1916 inclusive. CET trackometer 1. 7.1 2. 5.9 3. 4.9 4. 4.7 5. 4.6 6. 4.4 7. 4.6 8. 4.6 9. 5.0 10. 5.3 11. 5.3 12. 5.2 13. 5.2 14. 5.2 15. 4.9 16. 4.6 17. 4.3 18. 4.1 19. 3.8 20. 3.7 21. 3.6 22. 3.5 23. 3.4 24. 3.3 25. 3.3 26. 3.2 27. 3.0 28. 2.8 29. 2.7 30. 2.8 The coldest spell occurred in the second half of the month, when an anticyclone became established over the UK bringing extensive severe frosts at night. The CET for the period 14th-29th November was just 0.7 Low minima recorded include Biggar with -12.8C on the 18th and 19th, -11.7C at Hereford on the 27th which led to an ice day being recorded at that station as well as 23 air frosts for that month. Mean temperatures Chellaston (Derbys.): 1.6C Biggar: -0.5C Camden Square: 4.0C Ice skating took place on the Tweed and the Nith and at Preston, ice skating commenced on the 18th. After the unsual early season severe cold, it became cyclonic during December 1915. Rain fell in copious amounts especially over England and Wales and it ended up the 4th wettest December on record for these countries with 184.9mm Rainfall totals in inches Camden Square recorded 5.64 Arundel 8.42 Hailsham 9.62 Launceston 9.52 January 1916 was the mildest January on record with a CET of 7.5. There was little frost and snow during the month with maxima often in double figures, 17.2C was recorded at Rhyl on the 6th. The weather was unsettled especially in the north as Atlantic lows regularly pushed through maintaining the mild martime airflow across the UK throughout the month. January 1916 CET: 7.5 (+4.0) CET mean max: 10.3 CET mean min: 4.7 First half: 7.6 Second half: 7.4 Warmest CET maximum day: 13.2 Coldest CET minimum night: -0.5 Scotland: 5.2 Northern Ireland: 6.2 January 1989 was milder than January 1916 for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Across England and Wales, it was a pretty dry month with an England and Wales rainfall average of 56.6mm CET trackometer 1. 10.5 2. 10.0 3. 9.6 4. 9.7 5. 9.3 6. 9.2 7. 9.2 8. 8.7 9. 8.4 10. 8.3 11. 8.2 12. 8.1 13. 7.9 14. 7.6 15. 7.6 16. 7.6 17. 7.6 18. 7.7 19. 7.7 20. 7.7 21. 7.8 22. 7.8 23. 7.6 24. 7.6 25. 7.5 26. 7.6 27. 7.6 28. 7.6 29. 7.6 30. 7.6 31. 7.5 Camden Square data for January 1916 Mean Temp: 7.6C (+4.0) Mean Max: 10.4C (+4.1) Mean Min: 4.8C (+3.6) Highest Max: 14C on the 1st Lowest Max: 6.7C on the 31st Highest Min: 10.1C on the 22nd Lowest Min: -1.0C on the 23d Rainfall total: 33.0mm (-17.8mm) Sunshine: 33.4hrs Glenquoich recorded a whopping 743mm of rainfall for this month. February 1916 increased in cyclonicity compared to the January and it became very wet again. It is the 6th wettest February on record for England and Wales Rainfall totals include in inches Croydon 4.97 Twyford 5.36 Plymouth 5.54 Falmouth 7.63 Bourneville 4.64 On the 21st February 1916, the pressure pattern changed and northerly blocking began bringing cold air and increased snowfalls This heralded a very cold wintry March with a CET of 3.3C, conditions over the Pennines, Peak District and the Southern Uplands were horrendous with deep snow and drifts. An amazing period of weather, an unusually cold November, an unusually wet December, an unusually mild January, an unusually wet February and an unusually cold and "wet" March. 4 of them in the top 10 of either CET or the 1772 rainfall series.

ECM seems to me, bizarre. At 144hrs, the Atlantic low is barely developed. At 168hrs, there has been explosive cyclonic development to 965mb At 192hrs, the low is over Wales, still 965mb At 216hrs, the low is sinking southwards at 985mb At 240hrs , the low has filled to 1000mb So in a space of 96hrs, it goes from virtually nothing to nothing with explosive development and weakening in between. Not including the rapid westward movement, the stall and then the quickening southward plunge. Very odd!

Is it on its own? Looks like GEM and JMA are siding with it?

Week on Saturday http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html

The mean 240hr GFS 500hpa chart is interesting, instead of the classic Icelandic low and WSWly flow over the UK, it has a saggy low, angled NW to SE with hints of undercutting. Says to me, perhaps the Atlantic isn't going to simply blast through

I don't half get narked about the inconsistency of some posters such as one yesterday belittling snow prospects on a westerly flow then the next day, hey I'm not surprise x got snow and it's up for grabs. Grrrrrr.......

And this is what you said yesterday in response to my post about what I was hinting about these cold westerlies "Maybe above 1,000ft - but how many people live so high up? Can't get excited by hill snow"

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 135.7 1906 134.3 1809 131.0 1994 129.0 1937 128.8 1804 128.6 1999 128.6 1806 128.4 1990 127.6 1986 125.3 1960 125.1 1930 124.4 1936 124.4 1913 124.2 1975 124.3 1791 122.8 1875 122.7 2004 122.7 1828 122.4 1919 121. 2014 up to 21st

Only if you think two dimensional, I would have thought with altitude.....

There is some tripe in this thread. I'm not going to single people out but I think others can see who I'm on about.

That's the mean precipitation chart at 180hrs. Does the mean precipitation chart really mean anything at that range? To be honest at that far out not a lot.

Posts and the "Greenland high". Every year we have this but people forget that often the Greenland high shown on charts is not really there. This is a true Greenland high Look at the yellows and the oranges in that area

Let's compare the models from a week ago for today ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=14&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=192&map=0 Too deep the low about 25mb, the block too far east and south GFS http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&heure=0&jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&archive=1 Again low too deep and the block too far south and east GEM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=12&jour=15&annee=2014 Closer but the low a touch south and the centre of block is further east JMA http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=168&map=&nh=0 Low too deep and the block further east,

5 Februaries out of 6 having CETs of 6.0C and over is a pretty impressive run February 1867 CET: 6.9C Linton Park February: A very mild month with 5 slight frosty mornings. Winds mostly from SSW and W Selborne February: Prevailing SW winds, 5 frosts Banbury February: 3 frosts Culford February: mean temp 44.2F, 5 frosts Orleton February: 3 frosts Derby February: 3 frosts, a warm month Aberdeen February: 3 frosts, winds from S, SW, W frequently February 1868 CET: 6.3C Camden Town 16.9C on 25th Staplehurst A remarkably mild month Derby Warm, genial and sunny 16.7C on 25th Llandudno The weather was beautiful and mild during last week Dumfries Fruit trees beginning to burst their blossom February 1869 CET: 7.5C Some reports from stations Selborne December: The mildest December I have ever recorded February: Vegetation about 6 weeks earlier than average; yew and box in flower early in month. Highest max: 51.0F 8 air frosts Banbury February: Snow on 12th and 22nd; violets in bloom on 20th Highest max: 56.0F 5 air frosts Bridport February: A mild month and vegetation very forward 4 air frosts Shifnal February: Nettles several inches high on 5th; willow blossoming; apricots in flower and hawthorn budding on the 16th. Wild daffodil in flower on 20th. Pastures as green as in May. Boston February: Limes, elms and other forest trees in being in full bud Aberdeen February: A month of fine, mild dry weather except last 4 days were stormy. Lochbroom February: Trees and bushes never seemed so green. Ballater February: Up to last week, vegetation was making alarming progress for season. Some station figures Camden Town February Rain: 2.48" Highest max: 60.8F 4 air frosts Manchester February Rain: 4.44" Highest max: 61.8F Barnstaple February Rain: 4.35" Highest max: 62.0F 0 air frosts Waterford February Rain: 2.34" Highest max: 54.0F 1 air frost Llandudno February Rain: 3.43" Highest max: 58.0F 0 air frosts February 1871 CET: 6.1C Linton Park A mild but dull month Bodmin 7.3C average temperature Haverfordwest A mild damp month February 1872 CET: 6.9 C Linton Park A mild and dirty month. Selborne An unprecedentedly mild and damp February Lochbroom This has been the most remarkable February for warmth and mildness in the memory of anyone here. The period 1846-1885 returned numerous mild to very Februaries, 10 had CETs of over 6.0C and another 10 were 5.0C Camden Square mean 12th-20th February 1867: 8.7C 21st-29th February 1868: 8.5C 3rd- 11th February 1869 : 10.1C That is impressive that last figure, an equivalent would be something like February 1998. Maxima at Camden Square 1st-17th February 1869 1st. 12.8C 2nd. 9.6C 3rd. 12.8C 4th. 14.0C 5th. 16.0C 6th. 14.3C 7th. 12.1C 8th. 12.2C 9th. 10.4C 10th. 13.2C 11th. 13.6C 12th. 10.4C 13th. 9.3C 14th. 10.3C 15th. 9.6C 16th. 11.3C 17th. 12.0C To show the quirks of the British climate, March 1869 had a CET of just 3.8C, the second half of March 1869 was 4.6C cooler than the first half of February. A warning to anyone who thinks wintry chances are over after a very mild February.

Why is GFS 0z pants in regards to your location, NW England, when it shows bursts of cold polar WNW maritime air, a wind direction that favours the region for potential wintriness when Ian Fergusson himself mentioned in a post before about the coldness of that flow?

Look at these late season snow photos http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/53772-photos-of-late-season-snowfalls/

Well it's snowing at BBC Winterwatch on BBC 2, now. Looks wet the snow.

You have to be careful with so called high pressures over the Greenland area. They are often not really there. A sign of a genuine Greenland high is oranges and yellows in the 500hpa charts.

Lol I forgot Christmas Eve just gone! And that was not particularly cold uppers and there was a southerly component to the wind too boot. Saw just sleet but some saw snow in the showers.

Yes Every year say there will be a hot summer. You are bound to be right now and then...

Last year, remember the thundersnow event? The coldest air was on the WNW flowJanuary 1984 had burst of cold westerly flows.The day before the Burn's Day storm in 1990, there was a surprise snowfall to the Liverpool Manchester area on that cold westerly flow. Caught Fred Talbot out.It happened again New Year's Eve night 1993

I have been reading on the model thread and two members who say they are from the NW on their avatar seem to be missing something or am I? It's not the perfect set up but there is a chance of something wintry for our region if those cold WNW flows do occur.