Weather-history

You have got a short memory, last winter is an example!The proper wintry weather started after the first week of January and continued on and off into April

Well it's 4 years ago today that we woke up to a snow chaotic Greater Manchester.

18th June 2006

Incidentally James Madden was predicting snowfalls during one of the warmest autumns on record in 2011 http://www.bodyshopmag.com/News-bodyshop-james-madden-news-weather-exacta-weather-.aspx The irony is that article was published just a few days before that exceptional heatwave!! Who the hell is James Madden? https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather "Do some people literally want blood from a stone???" "December was off mark in terms of my usual forecasting accuracy, which I have stated many times. However, I was not the only forecaster to forecast a colder than average December. Was I??...See more"

I wish the owner sack the entire editorial team of that newspaper.."All we need is a change of wind direction to turn this rain into snow and that is what we are expecting in just a couple of weeks." says Jonathan Powell. Is the all? Crikey.

11th June 2006

AO is actually negative at the moment http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gifAnd NAO is neutralhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

WTF? Have some people got nothing better to do?

4th June 2006

But where is the severe wintry January that you seem confident in happening? I don't see a lot of evidence of this happening at the moment.I just hope you haven't been sucked in by the useless CFS long range synoptic forecasts, Crewe because you have one on your avatar.

If I were to say this looked like a typical m@dern winter scenario, do you think Ian Brown would press the like button to this? I notice that he seems to have develop the Craig Evans syndrome, (just joking Craig )of pressing the like button to posts in the model thread even though he hasn't posted anything for about three weeks.

Yesterday I mentioned the GFS ensembles were suggesting something of a pressure rise around the 9th. Looking at GFS 0z ensembles for Manchester, it is even more evident now on this set. Around the 13th, mean pressure gets near 1020mb. Hopefully a sign of something less vigorous and less rain.

2nd April 2006

The first part of December was anticylonic wasn't it? 1988-89 was very mild zonality but it wasn't wet at least in the south. Winter 1988-89 actually began with a weak Scandi High!

Christmas 2013 was a mild washout?It was pretty dry overall, at least it was here anyway. I can't remember the last washout Christmas around here. It wasn't mild it has to be said as well. December ended up be warmer than November. First time since 1949 that March was the coldest month of the year?

Looks like it sleeting but probably an optical illusion

Looking at the GFS 0z pressure ensembles for Manchester, there is a hint of increase in pressure around the 9th in the ensembles , which says to me a less volatile set-up maybe later. Less vigorous lows perhaps even more high pressure.

With all due respect, Roger, I am a humble person, I have won awards but never boast about them. Why should I self congratulate if others are doing it for me? My successes are enough, I don't need to boast or brag about them because they will be quick to point out failures.

10 years ago tonight (31/12/2003) parts of northeast England and Scotland saw snowfalls as frontal systems engaged cold air. I remember we has sleet and rain here but for the Pennines and northeast England saw some good snowfalls and a covering Forecast by Michael Fish

Humility.Because they will be times when it will come and bite you on the backside.

What a difference. Dark, rainy this morning. Bright sunny afternoon.

December warmer than November is possible. Last occasion was 1993

Your December part of the forecast looks out by a bit I'm afraid.

26th March 2006

January was a funny old month, a two week cold spell sandwiched between two milder spells. February for the thunder snow event that Monday evening March was remarkable, how many thought that it would be that cold after the first week. Easter wasn't actually that bad. April was nothing to write home about. A beautiful May Day bank holiday June nothing to write home about. July, a lovely summer month August was OK Disappointing summer, thunder wise again. The rest of the year has been forgettable largely although it was thunderier than the summer.