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Everything posted by Daniel*
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Too much emotional commentary in here, nothing has really changed, the signal remains for retrogression of ridge beyond day 10. Colder N flows are favoured, this is long range so to expect the NWP to have figured out MJO et al is baffling. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The period of interest is still out ECM op range, so I wouldn’t feel concerned right now. I also have a sneaky suspicion it’s not yet quite capturing MJO passage that well we have been here before with ECMWF. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Normality is restoring midweek next week, weeks of mild weather it’s not. the far north though looks to get milder with southwesterly flow over the top of the high. Inverness -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s definitely true the medium range has trended milder, it’s probably correct we will not see a wintry pattern until second half of December. 15-day EPS precip yesterday Today It’s not as rainy looking as 24 hours ago…. Good to see! -
Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
Daniel* replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks John forgot to reply. Seems likes it’s been a good start with a good base already? Cairngorm (4 hours ago) -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve never seen such anomalous cold modelled in vast expanse of continental Russia. The signal from EPS is overwhelming if that spills into Europe it really could be historic I do not say that lightly. -
Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
Daniel* replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I have produced my winter forecast for winter 2023/24. I am quite bold but I think I justify it well enough. Winter 2023/24: A Winter to Remember? WWW.THESNOWDREAMER.BLOG Winter Forecast Headlines: Overall, over the course of the meteorological winter encompassing the months of December, January and February. Temperatures are favoured to be colder than normal to... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EPS less mild in FI if anything compared to 00z big spread though. More questions than answers at the moment. Likely to turn less cold into next week though. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The cold “block” to northeast looks very entrenched on ECM 12z, while it might not influence our weather in nearer term it is interesting to see what will come of it, turning less cold probably for NW Europe but will the pattern sustain? I’m not sure. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The cold spell lives on in GFS 12z WAA pumping north with significant cold to our northeast. That’s more what we want. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting how we all interpret things differently I see a lot of promise on GFS 18z it remains cold and heights reemerging to north with a slidey look to it. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold seems to be upgrading and prolonging although this is rather unsurprising with experience of these patterns in low solar. Clearly if it was January we would be seeing a more substantial cold spell, nonetheless wintry hazards will be possible quite widely. Not a bad start to winter London, Heathrow Birmingham -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel* replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Short term upgrades on GFS more meaningful blocking into Greenland and colder T850s, it appears on Friday any precip will fall as snow. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Daniel* replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
First up ICON nice and clean with uppers more supportive of wintry precip. Set to see coldest start to meteorological winter since 2010. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Daniel* replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much better from GFS this morning seems -NAO Greenland high is having a bit of a resurgence in modelling and it does look more east than west based which favours NW Europe, Greenland blocking also helps with southern push of Euro cold trough. Anyone else seeing some similarities with December 2022? -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Daniel* replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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It’s based on model data no human input or sensationalism. And you are misunderstanding it incorporates windchill.
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This is quite a significant breakthrough in NWP world an AI model called GraphCast developed by Google is best performing at day 5 while ECMWF and GFS performance bombed this was not shared with this model. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4955750
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Daniel* replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is quite a significant breakthrough in NWP world an AI model called GraphCast developed by Google is best performing at day 5 while ECMWF and GFS performance bombed this was not shared with this model.