Daniel*

Knocker will be needing some blue crayons.

The GFS 12z is a gift. Right on cue the new year! I'm glad to see I've stuck to my thoughts. Anxious times ahead.

Battleground UK. Stunning synoptics the good old GEM may have been onto something! This is not far from getting into a reliable timeframe, what exciting stuff.

Nice day it turned out to be following the earlier rain, nice to see it at a more seasonal 9C. to add - Happy

An absolute snow fest no marginality there for lowland Britain, there's a good reason I bookmarked post the new year, that is a salivating chart. The North Sea & English Channel SST are above average to a significant degree east of Thames Estuary, courtesy of this balmy December. With any frigid easterly sourced flows such as above, there could be epic lake effect snowfalls, heavy snow showers would penetrate well inland giving some areas a real dumping. Kent in particular would be pummelled, things are looking up somewhat. http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2

Not good, is it?

You have been on this forum for over 8 years - you should know better. Well there's always the 'safe' option and that typically gives us such.

Such as? Does it look powerful on that chart? Leaving its resident home of Greenland potentially giving way to HLB? with the PV paying the UK a visit with some very wild weather, if you've been paying attention to strat guys it is not going undisturbed the PV is not indestructible. Nor do we need to rely on its demise for anything of note, I expect the vortex to gradually dwindle from now on a way to go. I'd say a delayed Spring is likely we may be experiencing that Spring now! Trying to offer some optimism here and I don't think it's far fetched. January is most definitely not lost - Mid January onwards is what I'm looking at. I cannot deny it has been a ugly start to the winter but nor can I see it lasting...

Hi, Early February is statistically the coldest part of the winter, there's a lot of water to under the bridge, clearly it will come in the latter half of the winter - which is not anything unordinary, early cold/snow pre new year is extremely rare. Some folk cough, are very inclined to write the month off and it's not even began using 16 day anomaly charts likely to suit their agenda, which is mad - ironically if coldies did they same they'd be flogged. We're experiencing quite an usual El Niño pattern but I believe, typically it does wane the deeper into winter. The PV has reached its peak potency for the winter which is reassuring, but still a mammoth journey to go here Glacier Point's post from yesterday did sound promising on this front. There are solid indications of Euro slug diminishing & jet stream taking a more southerly course, so seasonal weather returning towards end of 2015 into 2016 perhaps stormy it will feel like winter! And from there we have a better platform to a sustained wintry outbreak. Merry Christmas.

Unbelievable, it is sunny! We've not had a day like this in I don't even know... Still mild, 12C

Indeed: Absolutely belted it down for a minute or two.

Are you God? The GFS is well known for spotting a change of norm.

There's a large divergence in outlooks between the ECM and GFS the GFS giving seasonal weather the ECM giving blowtorch southwesterly winds, implying much uncertainty. It is not a done deal in the slightest.

Neither am I, the GEM addresses the possibilities of which is not favoured by a large stretch. However I would not say wholeheartedly it's spouting out crap. I disagree to that, the MJO wants to go in a more favourable phase, I think this is critical in hopefully reconfiguring this pattern perhaps this run is starting to factor these background signals? We're finally getting an assault on the mighty vortex - it doesn't quite seem to be enough for a SSW, albeit it looks disturbed on charts I'm seeing with HLB creeping in, the MJO may be the tipping balance we need in emphasising the assault and then a SSW may initiate - from a rather simple way of looking at it, I sense this pattern is running out of steam, it will not sustain all the way through the winter that's irrational. When and if we get the cold I'm increasingly feeling it will be significant. I still think early Jan is not lost...

The GEM is stunning... The outer reaches of GFS would give great depths of snow for Scotland & N. England. It is painting a cooling trend with the jet stream wanting to take a more meridonal flow this can only be a good thing! Something is afoot.

I can think of worse words Easily the warmest December on record for London & SE going below double figures seems like an achievement the dullness also may verge on record breaking a month memorable for its mediocrity. One I hope to never experience again.

Remarkably mild, I've never known anything like it, how depressing to have a mild, damp Xmas. I find January to be one of the most depressing months of the year - I couldn't cope with a continuation of this.

Good Morning, A slight tone down in the most notable wind gusts approx 70 mph ones but quite notable nonetheless. Top gusts 65mph through densely populated areas of London & SE a little hairy I'd say. I think there will be warnings issued within the next 24 hours; I wouldn't rule out an Amber warning either. The clock is ticking.

Aye, Snawbaw encapsulates it superbly I shall now flee...before you come with your tatties & pitchforks.

No comment, very much so in part of the world where it is quite sheltered. I do love extreme weather if it is memorable and that's always what I seek. I categorically do not like loss of life nor do I particularly like the disruption but it is incredibly rare It is out of my control no reason to feel guilty is there? The only snowman we're getting this year:

I hope you accept my humblest apologies. As well as you wee folk who have been caught in the crossfire. Dan

Boxing Day: This is only what I can see Nouska

23rd to 25th looks good it will turning milder on Boxing Day as southwesterlies return extending all the way out till the end of your stay. I wouldn't listen to William...

I've helped a substantial deal more than what you've done, you compelled me to post!

Answering your question - High.