Daniel*

I was not addressing that whatsoever... it's just what seemed rather notable to me in the semi reliable time-frame. Clearly in that part of the world I explicitly specified GFS is trailing behind ECM/UKMO? Unless I'm blind....

Disagree I think GFS is playing catch up, I think the run should be disregarded. Regarding the Alaskan ridge extending towards pole the UKMO & ECM are singing from the same hymn sheet whereas GFS is not - only T+144! Which is where FI is and yet folk are already kicking and screaming will they ever learn? Typo, blame the auto-correct on this silly iPad. GFS UKMO ECM

Because we're peasants?

Good to infer confidence is high.

I'd bank UKMO. This pesky lobe of polar vortex over Quebec area how typical! seems to be tampering WAA from even getting into Greenland.

That northerly was rather crap in fact very wishy-washy, there was no real blocking to really funnel the cold - different ball game this January. You will see some snow going by latest model output... My iPad is up to no good!

Regretfully I agree, whenever it's mild in winter I hope for a proper gale, I look towards notable bouts of weather which can be v unpleasant for some. I do like cold frosty days but as far as I know a cold spell is 'empty' when wintry precipitation is not involved. HP slap bang over the British Isles even if there's surface cold, gives me no/little satisfaction not in winter.

From a selfish point of view I'm not looking for dry weather, I want snow.

Not quite more substantial than a northerly toppler.. +168 +192 +216 +240 ,

The best ensembles of the winter? Game on - Kent Blizzard you think back to those ridiculously mild temperatures in December it is notably colder not just a cool down. Scope for quite prolonged cold here, clustering cold all the way out albeit with increasing scatter as you'd expect. A very good day I think, get the cold in place before going onto snow. Northerlies are not great for our region but disturbances in the flow, may give surprise snowfalls not modelled till relatively close.

Indeed David We have experts oh we do, but the superiority in their data is of higher resolution than model output from the public domain by quite a stretch, which is fed back to us in videos, such as above that's why you can get a tad excited. Well done to GP (as well as Tamara) in particular whose been rather stern in uk cold potential. I have not felt this excited in a good time, best to not get too carried away. What the heck I've not had more than a inch since Jan 2013!

"Computer models are beginning to agree" - JH Weather for the week ahead worth a watch: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35228964 It can be said decidedly the UK is going to experience a cold plunge the depth of cold remains unknown as well as longevity. Again not completely relevant in here but there's 'optimism' for sure as it is coming from the experts, implying we ain't barking up the wrong tree.

Not strictly model related but in Ian's absence hopefully temporarily I believe it is justified. Very encouraging, indeed. The best day yet this winter, for solid indications in a break of norm - and potentially real proper winter weather for British Isles. We've been waiting a long time...

I can definitely see that coming together, it has been behind the scenes been brewing for a while I believe. We were unfortunate this early January with block being too far NE, while much of Eastern Europe froze, but I think it is coming the forcing of the MJO in high amplitude, has overridden El Niño so to speak, additionally with polar vortex taking wave upon waves against the stern beast, and this is ongoing with modelled success no SSW though, to be frank it is not needed, perfect timing albeit I think a lot faster than the likes of GP anticipated. The run shows cross polar heights great stuff for significant cold spell nationwide. In 2010 the models caught out a possible solution, and run with it like what the ECM has shown well not quite this. I think this could be happening here, the ECM day 10 mean is also impressive something is afoot. You can see if it all slots together we'll be on a our way to a sustained cold blast, a very decent one. All the way back in October I've been feeling something about this winter I'm not quite sure why, but I would be utterly astounded if we do not get a decent cold spell with decent snowfall by March 1st. I have seen many busts on here I think this may end out different , scope for some real winter weather outclassing 2013. wet day here top temp 9C, a ghastly start to 2016.

OMG - Huge sudden developments. UTTERLY FANTASTIC!!!

January - tad below average a significant cold spell as the month draws to a close. February - I see this month to be exceptionally cold, with persistent bursts of northerlies veering more continental as the month progresses, thinking a Greenland high scenario. March - Winter continues, for many with several snow events with Atlantic trying to put on a fight. Constant easterlies ect, very wet in the SW where mild air is never far away. April - the Atlantic eventually breaks through, a very cool very wet month the wettest month of the year potentially. April showers aplenty. May - A quite cool start before turning warm temperatures widely in low to mid 20's by a Spanish plume. June - I see this month to be near average, some thunderstorms outbreaks in latter half. July - A very hot month could challenge the 38C+ achieved in Faversham in 2003 August - Unbearably hot start, London obtaining 6 consecutive days of temperatures about 30C, before turning dramatically cooler again during breakdown, I expect there to be convective thread to be v busy. September - My birth month one of the most reliable months in the year, I expect it to be slightly above average sunshine well above average, rainfall below average. October - A quite cool month I sense, a cold spell delivering snow similar to 2008. November - Well above average temps, incredibly dull stuck under an entrenched Bartlett type pattern. December - The first half very mild indeed with constant south-westerlies, very dry then the Euro high ridges to Scandinavia with frigid easterlies albeit on the dry side.

Hi Malcolm, Are you not a fan of the name change? I was toying with Ealing Easterly ...not quite sure if this will be permanent. I joint the dark side alongside my fellow @Essex Easterly *meowing intensifies*

This post may be useful. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84572-atlantic-storm-4-desmond/?do=findComment&comment=3297338

Quite bizarre to get convection like this nearing mid-winter? Very bright echoes. I changed my name in a moment of madness!

Those heights over Scandinavia is there a minutest chance, the models may be removing heights too easily from this region? The timeframe is within 24 hours so a Christmas miracle and a half if there was a drastic change. 1044mb block should be quite sturdy - what's causing it to set sail rather quickly to the NE?

Hi Amanda, It is mostly speculation at this stage - we'll keep you updated. A wet miserable end to the first day of 2016 after a nippy start to 2016.

Hmm...... That aside the model output does interest me in regards to windstorms, there's also possible snow for northern England on northern flank, out these southerly tracking lows. Just looks soggy down south and possibly very windy.

Indeed Steve very severe if that came to fruition affecting densely populated areas our infrastructure could not handle that. A 'weather bomb'. Deepening as it crosses the country. 100mph + gusts out to sea.

No OTT predictions Ben I'm just portraying in words what the models show the risk is there.

Glacier Point mentioned "a particular toxic period for our upper vortex" I sense this toxicity has leaked amongst us. Fergie is a very valuable spokesperson in a sense, from world leading Met Office. His added insight is a luxury and we're incredibly fortunate, he chooses to contribute to this forum. There is like no other on this forum, I strongly urge our pal to reconsider, the bulk of us love his input & I insist this is not a true reflection of the wider forum this winter season I have never seen it so civil, and some fantastic posts, & discussion, so it is sad to see this breakdown. Albeit not for long. Being on a forum with thousands of members it is easy to forget the lives behind the screens, it's not an easy feat to iron out the creases! but I think the team does a bloody good job. Some folk need some subtle reminders, respect is an universal thing, let's stop barking and show what makes this forum great please?