Daniel*

The Met Office are siding with UKMO, if not a better solution for prolonging cold with a stronger ridge/block, heights also appearing to want to build in the direction of Scandinavia so a cold continental flow still seems viable to me. The ECM got me feeling a little dreary but now I'm much more intrigued. The sega continues.

Such as below provides forecasters serious headaches with such volatility. Dire IMBY moves you to tears, although large areas of the country are impacted. Some back-edge snow for SE England.

Thank you. Frankly you're rather cynical. It is not ramping whatsoever when it is within 72hrs being modelled by high resolution models, and has a decent chance of verifying the GFS is a rather poor model, I'm not expecting folk to expect a full blown snowstorm. I interpret the models as what I see, it's not coming from a puff of air, clearly this clashes with Surrey anyway the proof is in the pudding. The ECM 12z only reinforces my thoughts, with at the very least some back-edge snowfall for parts of our region. The forecasts I've watched are completely out of kilter and so are the updates, to be fair. I expect this to change in the next 24 hours. Edit: I was saddened to hear the news of David Bowie RIP

Tweet In reference to Thursday snow potential, yes earlier on the parameters are insufficient, but it turns increasingly more conducive for snow as we progress through the day - for snow to fall to low levels.

I'm sorry but I think you're having a wind up...Tut, tut.

High res Arpege apparently the French equivalent to ECM! Has snow for most of us genuinely I'd be rather startled if none of us see the white stuff in SE before the cold spell is out this remains uncertain. Plenty of disturbances in cold flow, alas on marginal side but towards end of week this diminishes albeit turning drier a cheeky upgrade or two in potency would be welcome. I do not feel the need to be pessimistic!

Wintry feeling day. Cold rain falling currently...

Interesting post from fergie if you have not seen it.

Sunday is absolutely frigid on GFS 18z, with UK under HP very cold air remains in situ. UK Max temperatures of -8*C in highlands, overnight I think we'd be pushing towards -20*C. Exceptional cold not seen since 2010. Based on those charts we might be smashing records. Absolutely a perfect synoptic for very low minima & maxima very slack and windless aside from Cornwall & Western Ireland. It most likely will not turn out like this, but I think it was worthy of comment, as mentioned on TWO.

My stomach is not the only thing which is doing somersaults.

Brilliant Fax charts! Decent for a good spell(s) of snow, 528 dam well to S, thankfully the GFS is alongside fax chart for +120hr which offered in excess of 10cm for London, could be some big surprises. Must remain close to the ground but you can't help but get excited.

Who missed the significant snowfall for London & Home Counties on the pub run!

Blimey I was not expecting that, prolonging cold as consequence. Also Siberian high is stronger a decent run this is turning out to be. Most encouraged I've been all day, I cannot dismiss UKMO consistency whilst GFS also was quite adamant. When you get these standoffs, I tend to favour the cold solution winning out, and I suspect this has happened here. We'll have to await to see.

Half that.

That is correct mick however the maximum of today for London was 8C essentially that's tripe^^

No wintry element unless you're cruising at 40,000ft with dew points several degrees above 0*C. 850's just below 0. The high today here was 8C, yet the blooming forecast goes for 7C on Friday WTF, indeed. It is a incredibly arduous challenge it seems to get proper cold in British Isles, in recent winters SE Europe ie. Jerusalem has seen a lot more than snow than us. Reminds you of those godforsaken winters.

Most bizzarely the forecast I watched lunch-time by Chris F showed temperatures of 7C for London and S, 8C for the SW on Friday which is near average. Which is frankly highly inaccurate to the public the mentioned much colder weather, does not correlate there. You'd expect those figures for Newcastle & Scotland for much of England.

I suppoise the 'torpedo' cultivates to this SSW - February could be a very interesting month for cold lovers.

Miserable in knocker land.

Cheshire gap scenario on the T+48hr chart? Kitchen sink sort of day a biting raw N/W wind would feel blooming freezing.

It seems we've been stuck in a rut for several days not known anything like this before. You can't help but get apprehensive when GFS is having none of it, quite resolute on this, a important ECM this evening think I've said that the last few days. When you get these standoffs, I think it may be a telltale sign the potential is there for a notable spell of wintry weather, perhaps from a easterly quadrant further afield although the return of sw'lies between D6-10 probably are presently favoured by MO at this moment going by week ahead forecast. So I would not disregard the GFS it has some credence although it looks overly progressive to me. 'Tis beyond me.

Quite a difference between the 6z/12z on the fabled channel low as IDO highlights.

Agreed KB. Not as marginal as you think tbh the precipitation coincides luckily for us with lowering dew points and colder upper air temperatures being dragged in, furthermore the timing is also very beneficial when it is colder, based on this most would wake up on Friday morning with a smattering of white stuff. I would have thought the intensity and duration could give a lucky few a few inches most likely north of London. Enough to safisfy us snow starved mortals, 1cm would do me lol! Precipitation: 850s: no real concern Dew points may start in the positive territory when precip arrives equating to wet stuff but it will increasingly turn to snow for just about all, as sub zero dew points filter in. 2m temperature: Overall it is best chance of some accumulating 'widespread' snow since 2013 says it all. I'm not really expecting much but I'd like to be proven wrong. Fingers, toes, arms, legs crossed.

To add some contrast in here not to be taken seriously It really does turn very ugly, as blocking wanes and dissolves, with PV wanting to reconsolidate into a scary sight, giving way to very mild conditions, with long fetch SW'lies from Azores with the return of the fat Euro Slug, RIP the rest of January, although Knocker wouldn't mind he might pop out his woodshed. A lot of water to go under the bridge, oh I do hate cliches.

Those pinky colours are inbound London, a rumble or two would be nice.