Daniel*

Much of Europe is cold tonight but the UK sticks out like a sore thumb. For our latitude it is a sad sight but "thanks" to that great expanse of water and warm ocean currents it's always a battle. Another winter scorcher of a day top temp 14C with some sunshine - I must say, this is even worse than 13/14 winter so far and that takes some doing.

Eastern Europe is set to experience a chill Although back in Blighty the cold pool to the E does not really look to make much advancement into Western Europe.

I expect you will see some snow showers rattle through at your elevation ASL courtesy of a brisk westerly flow.

Noticing a trend of +ve heights wanting to cross over to Greenland, potential retrogression of Kara Sea block to Greenland in the longer term? Again a very wet or very snow picture is on the cards for the northern half of the country next week. I currently favour the latter 70:30, mirroring a similar story to Nov/Dec 2009...

That is not bad looking I believe that is a split jet, clearly disrupted, not what we're experiencing at this present time, with the Atlantic train heading straight at us, so to speak. It shows the jet stream taking a meridonal flow into Western Europe. You can gather blocking is having an lingering infulence to the NE, with one arm of the jet plunging S into mediterranean sea wouldn't take much westward adjustments for UK to be on the cold side of jet stream, most importantly that is 17 days out. I think the models are struggling around day 5!

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2016: Remaining essentially unsettled across all parts throughout the period, with further bouts of wet and windy weather to come. The rain occasionally heavy and accompanied by gales, although much quieter, brighter weather can be expected in-between frontal systems. Still rather mild at times, particularly in the south, but generally feeling colder than of late with a greater risk of frost at night during quieter interludes. The rain also turning to snow at times in the north and northeast, mainly on higher ground, but with the risk increasing at low levels too later in the period as the potential for much colder weather increases. Looking at the period as a whole, temperatures are expected to be around average for January, though perhaps slightly above average towards the southwest. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Here's some meat so to speak 28/12/15 http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

There seems to be further unneeded rain in this coming week late Tuesday into Wednesday out of Storm Frank mention of 'localised' 140mm falling on saturated ground on ITV national forecast, for those that do not need it! Next week there's not much in it between an extremely wet/very snowy picture for northwest England with Atlantic rearing its horns to cold air to the east. All in all v. exciting markedly less so for the flood stricken souls, who'll have to endure more flooding, the best model output since 2013. Even if we do not get much out of it nationwide - with vortex getting a beating more swoops will inevitably come. Scotland & north of England parts of Midlands, looks likely to see a winter blast at least. South of the M4 I'm not seeing much out of this so far, more runs needed as always. Current 'false dawn' will provide a huge shock to the system. I have felt compelled to tell my friends & family of this 'change' but I've kept my mouth shut. .

Severe cold crawling closer T+144

Crazy weather out there I've never seen the white pixels get that far south into Mexico before, have you?

Precisely. It makes my blood boil it's the same folk every single time. The GFS is commonly outperformed by ECM on occasion it gets it right - in model performance statistics, GFS is virtually always trailing behind ECM. These very mild conditions can go to hell as far as I'm concerned, I've saved enough on heating bills not that is an issue anyway. I want Winter and I want it to hit hard the MO have caught a whiff, you'd think it is doomsday for coldies.

Apologies vegans & animal lovers this made me chuckle I must be morbid. Weather-wise, dreich, v mild. Night folks

Just for fun ECM +240 very low thicknesses & lots of snow I could imagine!

Car thermometer displaying 14C never have I seen it so late in the year, you could say it is unprecedented this time last year it was seasonal with frosts courtesy of slack flow HP. Awful flooding in northern England, there seems to have been little to no respite meanwhile it has been drier than average in our region. It looks to turn either v. wet or v. snowy further out with Atlantic wanting to compete with cold pool from the east. The latter would be preferable with the flooding woes aplenty, interesting model output nonetheless.

At least 7C above the average maximum right now, staggering how far this has stretched.

Looks eerily similar to what happened a few weeks back - what is the chance of that? Cumbria taking the brunt once again.

The WAA takes place within that timeframe and the block to the NE this is already one hurdle out the way a big stepping stone. So I do not find the eyecandy outrageous at all, conceivable certainly. Although going by the Met Office this doesn't have a solid enough footing/support at this present time.

More amplification on this run! 12z 18Z

Dreamy: The snow drought would become a distant memory.

A corker of a run ECMWF 12z, very snowy. T+240 would deliverer a decent snow event 10cm plus widely - and what would lead thereafter is tantalisingly good. Christmas Day gifts, albeit a wait on the delivery?

I'm not seeing it........

In reference to this "if there are straws for the coldies to clutch they are invisible to me." Well you can choose to turn a blind eye I'll give him that.

Lovely photos Malcolm - Merry Christmas from back home in Blighty. No sunshine here a drab, December, Xmas day one for the bin. Another injection of warmer air incoming...the app shows it to plateau at 14C from 1600 this late afternoon to 1500 the following day, one thing I can't stand is the lack of diurnal temperature variation. Edit: it would be nice if more faces contributed in this regional.

Very misleading knocks the northern hemisphere profile is being reshuffled, consequently there's a greater affinity to cold for British Isles - the vortex looks to be in a precarious, seriously disturbed state out in FI.