Daniel*

T - 5*C DP - 2*C

Agreed, 144hr is FI at this stage. The UK is embarking on its coldest spell of weather since March 2013 here we are approaching nearly 3 years later. It seems snow is on the top of people's agenda including mine, which clearly tempers - the tone in here, but finally some proper cold, not the wishy-washy type.

T+24 I would expect showers of sleet/snow to come inland off the North Sea for eastern counties as the low dives into the Low Countries, there's an easterly element - accompanied by relatively warm North Sea. I suppose there could be quite widespread wintry, showery activity for eastern half of the country. Thoughts?

Severe frosts in north harsh frosts going S with time, GFS typically puts temperatures on the more toasty side.

I suppose so but I think he was alluding to Highlands.. Exceptionally cold night if there was snow cover in I would expect minima in the region of -10C around Norwich area widely in that part of the world, outside chance of -15C? Very slack continental flow, temperature would plummet!

Upgrades on la GFS 12z - Monday will be bitterly cold, -10C 850s into East Anglia 200 odd miles further west than 6z.

Bodes well to see Chilterns & parts of North Downs are seeing some wintriness amongst the precipitation, anyone on the ground to confirm?

Sydney la squirrel will be needing one of these.

Bit by bit GFS is getting closer to UKMO with these westward adjustments, all models tend to overdo the energy of Atlantic pushing through against cold air which is not too easily displaced, the models have always struggled on this. UKMO has made some mistakes as has ECM, but it has been the superior model GFS, has been like a stuck record over the past few days. ECM Dutch ens are very impressive the momentum has shifted greatly. Bit premature, reasons to be happy but what a tune! Hopefully excusable considering, RIP Legend

A cold wind today and yesterday from a slight northerly vector it is noticeable compared to of late. You ain't seen nothin' yet. it will be very icy and slippery on untreated surfaces, when all this standing water freezes over.

ECM Dutch ens really going into freezer..

Sydney's distant cousin across the water

Ben let's reserve judgement of the cold spell, it has not even started really, going by UKMO a long way off and to a lesser degree the ECM, despite GFS being Scrooge it does have a snowy breakdown.

Better tilt to the ridge at T+96. UKMO & ECM are not far off from each over - Edit: ECM/UKMO T+120 Houston, we have lift off? Wrong thread, never mind!

Looks similar doesn't it from the 120hr Fax from yesterday, this has not surprised me one bit. It is the model of choice in this scenario.

This low seems to be trending north - 300 miles further north than the GFS 18z from 48 hours ago, should be cold enough for it to fall snow to low levels in far north of England.

I see some back-edge sleet/snow for Thursday as a band of rain arrives even colder air is injected in see negative dew point to W of London heading east, although the precip may be missing or less abundant. I would expect to see on E4 some pink pixels if there was another frame.Sod's law most of the precip coincides with unsupportive parameters. I would say there's a high chance, in some parts of the region seeing some sleet/snow after the rain, which will consist the starter and the main course! There will be snow opportunities:

I'm not quite sure what you are getting at with "residual warmth" it radiates out into cooler surroundings the atmosphere, with it getting colder beforehand I do not think it's a concern, some of the heat gets trapped in surfaces this is most greatest retained by dark surfaces, thus the chance of settling snow is lower as consequence of this warm autumn and start to winter, this is minimised if you're rural. Although having little to no effect on who's going to see snow its down to how cold it is up there, rather than near ground level. Friday morning parameters are not as conducive quite brief, it improves through the day. Just need the all important precipitation still scope for widespread snowfall.

T+120 fax is inspiring.. My geography is not fantastic but that is 7" for Peterborough from pub run - I'm sure Mr T would have some of that. Cambridgeshire, Norfolk being on the firing line. Just as good it's the GFS on the late night gin, with a drenching S of Ely roughly I do not fancy cold heavy rain.

Yes.

The Met Office are siding with UKMO, if not a better solution for prolonging cold with a stronger ridge/block, heights also appearing to want to build in the direction of Scandinavia so a cold continental flow still seems viable to me. The ECM got me feeling a little dreary but now I'm much more intrigued. The sega continues.

Such as below provides forecasters serious headaches with such volatility. Dire IMBY moves you to tears, although large areas of the country are impacted. Some back-edge snow for SE England.

Thank you. Frankly you're rather cynical. It is not ramping whatsoever when it is within 72hrs being modelled by high resolution models, and has a decent chance of verifying the GFS is a rather poor model, I'm not expecting folk to expect a full blown snowstorm. I interpret the models as what I see, it's not coming from a puff of air, clearly this clashes with Surrey anyway the proof is in the pudding. The ECM 12z only reinforces my thoughts, with at the very least some back-edge snowfall for parts of our region. The forecasts I've watched are completely out of kilter and so are the updates, to be fair. I expect this to change in the next 24 hours. Edit: I was saddened to hear the news of David Bowie RIP

Tweet In reference to Thursday snow potential, yes earlier on the parameters are insufficient, but it turns increasingly more conducive for snow as we progress through the day - for snow to fall to low levels.