captaincroc

When are the Met Office updating their warnings? As hoping for a westward shift in the Amber warning as most models have it further west than they did yesterday.

...but I will say that I was expecting nothing from the skies today and this is all happening before the major uppers hit.. excited to see what could happen.

The radar looks worse than what is falling from the sky...a big blob went on the radar but literally a few flakes fell.

I am offended!! Crewe is regularly a winter wonderland!!!

I can join the snow flurries gang. Weird thing is, there are literally no clouds above me but it' still lightly snowing. ?

I was thinking this before that the IKON really was the king of the models in preparation for this spell. Did someone say it was to do where it specialised in the atmosphere?

That area of snow is looking bigger and in a better position to hit us! Looks a lot heavier too than on other models.

Just seen this on TWO...well the screenshot... Looking good for Wednesday.

The thing is, we are at a point where we need THE perfect synoptic for everyone to get a pasting of snow at once. So one man's loss is normally anothers gain. That's why I will be browsing the MO with a pinch of salt and mainly staying in here. I totally get the IMBYism, as let's be honest, we would love the low to reach us but if it did then the south are virtually guaranteed to be in the milder air. I still feel we will all get a covering at some point. Kev's video of that snow shower showed that one beefy shower can drop a covering, let's hope for many more of those.

Morning buddy. This backs up my thoughts I put yesterday. I know i sound like I am hopecasting (maybe a tinge...) but with all these uber cold and extreme upper temps coming across a warmish North Sea I feel we are in kinda uncharted territory in regards to what might explode in the atmosphere, shower wise. I honestly think there could be more organised bands of areas of heavy snow sweeping the country midweek and because of the temps being so low, every flake will stick so only a few showers will give a decent covering. This easterly isn't normal and is SO potent, exciting to see what fun and games will pop up. I a genuinely happy with any type of covering as I have not seen powder snow blowing about since I was a child as I grew up n Crewe... Anything else is a bonus.

I've been really thinking about the instability question... Lots of the more seasoned posters are pointing out the rarity of the temperatures, Dam values etc, if this is the case then isn't there more chance of heavy beefy showers making their way across the whole country? This isn't a normal -5 easterly on a brisk breeze, it seems extra normal, so was wondering if the models would pick up on this? Maybe they are underplaying the potential falls? Maybe a bit of hope casting but if the upper values etc make the atmosphere more volitile then could we be in for a more exciting period than the initial data suggests? (snow wise)

i fear that may be the case also but as the uppers are so low and instability is rife I reckon larger areas/spells of snow might continue to crop up last min.

Can I ask the experts a question if possible about this chart. If you look you can see that even though - obviously - the east gets battered, there is a strip running from north Wales, across the north Midlands, NW England. I have seen this area in many a precipitation forecast the past week. Why is it there? As the Pennines seem to stop or lower precipitation further north? Is it a gap in the high ground? Just wondering as IMBY it would affect me but just wondering why that strip seems to always be there?

The surreal thing about these charts is that they are literally knocking on our door. Many many a year these have appeared at 342hr and deep down we had the knowing they probably wouldn't materialise...and sure enough they didn't. We are now at a point where our Nirvanas might just be here and it really is surreal to see this unfold...could it really happen?

@Scorcher See, the ECM is picking up on features already! Won't take much to cause disruption

Like Crewe said, being at elevation makes all the difference. I'm at 172m (15 mins from work in Crewe) and the most noticeable difference that has given is the actual sticking of the snow. Most times it's snowing here it's snowing in Crewe, difference is it sticks.

For me the difference is this time that the temps are going to be so low that most snow falling will stick. Will only take a good few showers to create a good cover and then with the blowing in the wind it will cause chaos.

What I find interesting is the blob of intense snow in east Wales on the second graphic. It must be a more organised area as why would it be heaviest there? I think we are in for an interesting ride. I still haven't told anyone yet...feeling a possible Facebook post tonight.

Loving the fact everything is nudged north again, as long as it's trending in that direction I then think we could be secure in this outcome!

I was just thinking that, i know the super cold doesn't arrive until Sunday but as the uppers don't need to be low for snow with an easterly I wondered if we could get some light showers before the main course! haha ....so when can we start to tell people?

I agree. i do get his point that the deep deep cold was modelled to arrive a tad earlier but the main cold has not really been put back. Like I said in there, would I prefer a quick blast but dry or sightly higher uppers but instability and precipitation? The latter every time.

You're right TEITS. It has NEVER been modelled to come in Saturday AND the super cold was never meant to come in till a few days later. Yeah there have been shifts forward and backwards slightly in time but nothing to write home about. Like I said previously we have been spoilt by the off-the-wall charts of some days previous. If we had been given even the worse of today's charts a few weeks ago we would be like giddy kids.

I think we all may have been tarred by the -18c uppers that some models have predicted. Yes both are you are right in your arguments but the 'warming' up of the air is minimal in the sense it will still snow and still be sub zero. I personally would rather unstable air and a slight rise in upper temps and get bands of snow instead.

Obviously there is time for it to go tips up but what is softening the nerves is a lot of the building blocks are in high res now. Like the boulder getting the initial push down the hill... ?

My 2p... It is by no means set in stone and the Atlantic could well drive through but the Arpege is a short range and a high res model. If that's on board as well as the Ecm (and I'm guessing Mogreps) then the balance is looking *just* in our favour at the moment.