captaincroc

We have a few days of 'trending' as long as we keep shifting every 6 hours we could be in for a surprise. If I lived Cumbria, Lancashire I would be getting excited. I personally need a BIG shift to get any snow from the low here!

The trend is on our side (shifting southwards), I am with you and hope it does. The 12z's will be interesting for sure.

Yeah I agree, we will miss most of the showers but on such strong winds I am expecting a few beefy ones to make it through. The way I see it is on a normally westerly we still get showers anyways (as air is full of moisture) so hoping the same will be the case this time.

Yeah, lots of energy in the air too so should be some belting showers!

Hi mate. I think the other parameters are on our side... Dew points below freezing, sub 528 dam.. Obviously doesn't guarantee anything

What you thinking about your chances for Crewe?

I really wish there was a zoom on Postcode on those maps and never can be quite sure where i am, as the smallest shift is a massive change in precipitation forecast

I think the convective showers are nailed on, the only issue is the boundary of snow, is it going to snow on the coast etc? The favourable parameters seem to be holding up, yes the uppers aren't as good as December but the SSTs are lower and there are other factors more in our favour. The wind will blow more showers across the region but also it will mix up temperatures up there too so not as cold on the ground as lighter winds. Like many have said, I reckon there will be more organised areas of precipitation that will swing across the region, that mixed with a LOT of energy up there could result in some exciting falls. I love it when the sky goes black and it just pelts down with snow covering everything in seconds...I feel this set up is prime for that.

I think we will still get showers, be them weaker and less frequent, but like you said MCR, Lancashire etc are in for a treat!

Yeah, moved from Crewe a few years ago and you can definitely tell. Snow sticks a lot easier up here! haha. I think Oldham etc will do better as the winds might be a tad too westerly for me, this is show up on the snow forecasts.

Yeah and will only cool more during the strong cold winds this week. I'm not saying we are going to be snowed in this week but it's definitely an exciting week with lots of potential

I'm excited, as like some have said, there is some special air headed our way...yes the uppers aren't as cold as December but there is other parameters that give the atmosphere much more energy. This forum is going to be busy.

@CreweCold. You reckon the winds are just a bit too westerly for us?

This coming spell does definitely look very interesting for our region. Yes, there is obviously a close border between if things fall as rain or snow but either way the week is full of potential. I reckon this thread will be extremely lively. I reckon a lot of the higher ground to the east of the region will storm it. I am a bit too far south for the angle of the showers so will get less but excited to see what most people here get.

It depends how you define potent? Like explained there are a lot more things are our side this time, the only things less so are the uppers. Dew points and other parameters are lower. Not just that but there's so much more energy in the atmosphere. Exciting times for us in Staffordshire/Cheshire

I totally see your point about it not being as cold and I had some great - and memorable - falls of snow too not far from you from Decembers event but this is exciting for different reasons. For me there seems to be a LOT more precipitation about and stronger winds and a lot more energy in the atmosphere so could be some interesting events within. Anyways, it's better than mild mush! haha.

Thank you so much for your time and effort making this.

Cheers mate but I was just wondering why this forecasted spell seems a lot more potent than normal?

Just been wondering why the uppers seem so low from a North Westerly? My only assumptions are lower than average SST, extremely cold Greenland and gale force winds blowing straight from there with the shortest flow possible? I am only looking at 850 temps, is there anything else I should be looking at?

There is no doubt that the GFS charts overdo the signal for snow on their charts but I have to say that bullishness for snow is something I haven't seen before from this wind direction.

What are the deviation plots for again?

Give Steve his due, he did predict it would happen earlier in the run.

Thank you for this update, especially as it looks like we could be in for a sprinkling of snow. Which models/data is this forecast (short and longer range)based on?

Sorry mate, should have explained better. I meant as that the UKMO seems to model easterlies slightly better so am trusting it's evolution on this, which at the moment seems more positive for us coldies.

Good point. I think for me it's been more worrying when the UKMO hasn't been onboard with easterlies in the past, it was then normally shown to be right. As that is onboard I am more hopeful with the GFS on it's own for something special than if it was the UKMO in it's place. Obviously it could all still go t*ts up, hence why I'm not telling friends/family just yet, but it is looking exciting for sure.