captaincroc

Im sure the experts might be able to shed more light on this but ever since the SWW the eye candy charts looks different? They seem more muddled and unclear...but with the same end goal. Like the chart above, just look at the random pressure gradients everywhere? Is it a sign of the not actually knowing the specifics but know roughly where 'things' will be?

This is just amazing, at only 96 hours away the model can have such a stark difference, no low to a pretty intense low pressure. As much as it is frustrating it is fascinating model watching for sure, worst 'Shannon' ever I feel.

The Met O app now has it turning to snow on its back edge for me. It's never showed that for this event here. Not expecting anything but interesing none the less.

*IF* that verifies then it looks like it could be possibly an all snow event for some...

-1 degrees here but the snizzle is only settling on minimal areas. Really confused as thought it would stick everywhere due to being below freezing??

Cheers for the time and effort in that post Joe. I was about to trawl through them and you saved me a job.

I'm sure I've read before that the short term Arpege is thought of in high regard? Can anyone confirm this?

With the current trending this is where I reckon we will end up. Everything shunted slightly further west, High pressure more defined and more northerly placed with a proper easterly wind.

Genuine question to the more experienced posters...but, playing devils advocate, what could technically go wrong within the 96hr time frame? Is there anything that could stop this?

Cheers the pretty boring bench pic just shows how the altitude made the temps drop below freezing so stuck to everything, even with everything being wet.

Chris, purposely replied as wanted to congratulate you on your forecast of ice pellets... Started off as very light snow and I think i mentioned earlier on the thread that the snow looked 'dryer' than how wet the ground was...well i was was right because as soon as it got heavier it started to stick. I am at 180m but the hill I am on tops out at 250m, so decided to go for a walk. That 70m made a definite visable difference, when I got to the top there was that snow mist (as I call it) when you know the temps are below and everything is sticking. Went for a big walk and was sticking on roads etc and as I was coming home you could see in change and within 5 mins all that was falling was ice pellets it was pretty cool to see. Even filmed them for you, there are a few pics and video of the ice pellets bouncing off my window too on my instagram (as always have trouble posting pics etc in here...) Here is the link. Well done on your forecast mate, this is why I love this place. Literally 30 mins before these pics/videos there was nothing.

Snowing here, ground was wet but snow weirdly not as wet as I would have thought. I reckon it will stick when/if it gets heavier.

I'm away from comp until tomorrow afternoon. How is the precipitation looking for tomorrow Chris? Any change from earlier?

What's your thoughts on that tweet I posted Chris?

Just seen this tweeted...

That is good news, especially given the airports ASL

I agree, Joe, your input is so valued and you have a balanced head too, you were just reading the models. Yes, the past few days have been frustrating. We had snow last night, was beautiful and covering as the ground was frozen and then yet again (happened last year too) warmer uppers came and upped the temps so I woke with a thaw? WTF?! Even at 180m? This is by no means a 'told you so' post but when i saw these uppers modelled from a westerly I thought the wind might modify but as so many parameters were on our side I thought we would be safe... I think I will stick to my polar northwesterlys in a light breeze (less mixing and colder evening temps).

Looking like the positioning has firmed up more overnight for the low. Looks like Cumbria is in a sweet spot, will only take a small shift for Lancashire to come to the party. I reckon i will need a miracle for me to be in the firing line. Last chance saloon will be the 6zs to see if a last min shift is picked up on.

Lol, beat me to it! This is feel could be what we end up with, as it will only take another slight shift to produce this result shown.

Wet snow in Crewe and 2 degrees, drive home and a slight covering here on grass etc and frozen over. Just had a powder snow shower blowing in strong winds. Covered everywhere again in a dusting.

I genuinely believe this i how it will finally look tomorrow, another slight southward shift... I feel we are in for a surprise.

Not near computer bit apparently the Ecm is even further south? Let' hope that's the case.

Slightly disappointing to have a rain shower at 180m . I do have faith in the more knowledgeable ones in here that believe the afternoon is the start of the fun and games. In regard to the low tomorrow, obviously a hopecast but I wouldn't be surprised of more corrections southwards. It was happening with the famous sliding low right until its arrival.

I wouldn't be too sure. There is still a good spread in the ensembles and as we know the last slider (yes, this isn't a slider) changed within 24 hours still. Yes, not hopeful but all hope isn't lost just yet. Let's see what the mean comes out at?

That GFS mean does look amazing! Let's hope it continues shifting slightly more south. ...though saying that it is impossible for that feature to keep up all happy, as for someone it will be too far north and others too far south! haha.