captaincroc

I think the GFS route looks more probably to me (not that 'that' properly exists in the model world). This isn't a common occurrence and we know the models struggle when things aren't the norm. I reckon the trough will drop into Scandi (in time) and the high will move across to Greenland leaving us in a northerly flow....once/if the low moves east, if that happens then the floodgates will open. My only concern is if we get the blocking too westerly based but we have to remember what a great place we are to be in with the PV is battered at this time of year, gives us SO much more chance of snow, cold etc. Whether it comes though is another matter.

For me, it's just great to see high heights over the pole at this time of the year in the reliable frames. Again, not saying it will amount to anything as a whole this winter but is sure better than a blanket of black and purple up there.

For me I just love the dark nights being cold and crisp, as the pas few years it's just been wet and mild. I had a feeling this winter would start different, not that I'm predicting a 62-63 repeat, the feel of the charts looks far from normal which for me indicated there is more chance of the extreme happening one way or another. Yeah, not technical but with Ophelia etc the atmosphere seems from from it's normal state which is only a help rather than a hindrance. Obviously it could, and probably will, be another mild, wet winter but as long as things seem volatile then that volatility could swing in our direction. Time will tell. Until then some nice seasonal weather to look forward too.

This isn't meant to sound negative, moany or condescending but last year it was blocking all the way being forecast and it didn't materialise. The same excitement was squashed when the WOI index (or whatever it was called) didn't play out. I look at them for a bit of fun but really don't take them as gospel in the slightest.

I was thinking the same. even during the 2009/2010 winters there were many times (and I'm sure CreweCold can back me up) that we would still get Ice Pellets or sleet even with such favourable uppers. Last proper snow from a North Westerly (zonal) type scenario was Christmas/Boxing Day 2004.

Just looked at the models for tonight's potential showers but it is looking marginal I think, Dew points around or just above freezing, -4 uppers. Anyone else have any thoughts?

You extra height has paid off as I reckon I wouldn't be far off you if this mornings snow wasn't wet/sleety as literally snowed for hours last night. ...I know I sound an annoying t*at to most! haha but after living in the snow desert of Crewe/Nantwich I am allowed to get excited.

Woke up at 5am and everything was frozen and nothing melted but warm sector hit here too as woke up at 7 and it was snowing but 'wet' snow and things were dripping etc, most wasn't sticking. So decided to walk to the very top of the hill (which is about 50m higher) and it was still freezing there and was epic as just got there during the heavy precipitation and it was blowing around like I've ever seen in my life before. Walked back down and it was still wet snow at my house but stuck. Gutted it was rain for Crewe, I have been there with you Aaron haha. There is a quick vid on my Instagram as won't let me post videos on here... https://www.instagram.com/benjaminstubbs/ will post some more pics when it's properly light.

That's heading my way I think. Then some clear skies hopefully to keep it cold.

Been a night I won't forget here tonight. Been snowing most of the evening, all different types....Massive flakes, Graupal, tiny flakes etc... Never expected this. Took loads of pics and video but don't do the amount we have - or the beauty of it sticking to so many surfaces -credit. Let's hope for some more if it's my lot then I can't complain.

20 mins ago. Came in for a warm up then back out!

It's been snowing here on an off for the past hour or so. Most places have frozen so sticking to most things, except gritted roads. Been for a quick walk and sat in my garden that looks over the hills locally. Took a few pics but it won't let me upload them here. Going to put them on my Instagram if you want to have a look....some stunning skies with the full moon too. https://www.instagram.com/benjaminstubbs/

Looks like it's all heading our way! Could link in with the increased CAPE around midnight too?

Just gone out and checked and many places have frozen over, this is what it must be like living at altitude (well compared to Crewe ) It is only planned to get colder so just got to hope some more things actually fall from the sky.

Great news here is that the snow/hail hasn't melted off cars and roofs. Majority of it was hail but good to see it isn't melting at 6pm as it's only going to get colder.

Just had/having my first snow/hail shower in my new house. I'm hoping the temp drops below freezing so everything that falls will stick. Especially with the wind forecast.

I was wondering about the 'strength' of the showers would come from. Could you possibly show me the chart that shows this? Just so I can learn for next time.

Which is why I'm surprised we aren't in the Warning Area for snow. I haven't got my hopes up too much but if some other areas are in it then why isn't the risk there? Unless they really don't feel they will take off?

What I find interesting is they have missed out SE Cheshire on their warnings again. Obviously they have a lot more knowledge than me but if they have said themselves that showers will be coming down the Cheshire Gap - with even an organised front possibly moving down - I am surprised it isn't in the 'area', where as other, seemingly lower risk areas' have? Would love clarification.

Cheers for this Chris. Was wondering other I could see then in real time? I use XC-weather too. P.s love the profile pic. Whatever you think of his policies, it's great to have a politician who genuinely cares.

Oh! Lol. I always check them thinking they were.

I thought they were what the MetO used?

My bedroom is my converted attic and I felt like I auditioning for the Wizard of Oz last night.

Compromised is maybe being a bit unfair on the ECM (not that it's a person or would care ). the GFS wanted to roll back the Atlantic fully a few days ago, it slowly came round to the ECM's idea of blocking to our E/NE. Whatever happens now the ECM has done brilliantly in spotting this evolution, whether or not we get a full easterly is still up for grabs, but even if we end up with a MLB the ECM still deserves credit in spotting that.

Hi Ian. The precipitation has definitely moved north over the past 24 hours. We may be in for a surprise.