captaincroc

I was thinking this Pip. I know I'm in North Staffordshire but I thought I could be in for a chance of being on the northerly border of the precipitation.

Just checked and at 4pm Dew Points are below freezing for most of us and were are in -5c air, so hopefully any showers should be wintry at least by then.

I'm quite excited Joe and I moved house and live on a hill in Staffordshire in the Cheshire Gap. This is my first Polar Northwesterly since I moved in. Here's hoping for a bit of drifting so I can skip work

Haha. I agree, though i am smack in the middle of it so I do hope he is right!

It's going to be hard Impossible to get a direction we are all going to be happy with. Me being on the staffordshire border I need a more NW, any hint of WNW and we're screwed too! haha. Let's hope some feature pops up that makes us all happy.

A couple of things here... I'm by no means an expert - just a novice - but a question to the experts if possible? Where is the point of no return, by that I mean the set up is there where the cold has to come in? What's the realistic timescale, as I'm guessing if we get certain things in the nearer timescale 'down' then things will click into place? Then it gives us an area to count down from? Also can someone save this run for future reference. #WeatherPorn

100% with you. The problem is I cannot remember (well I can...Xmas 2001 I think) where we had decent cold Zonality snow. It's been rain/sleety snow with patchy frost if any due to the wind. No thanks from me unless it's incredible uppers...which as Gav says on Twitter normally get scaled down in the run up to them.

*If* and a big if the models are starting to pick up on height rises then It won't suddenly switch from nothing to a full northern attack, we do normally get a phasing of solutions and I feel this could be what is happening here. All the long term modelling still puts height rises to our north over the next few weeks, maybe this is the NWP picking up on that signal that the longer range models could see. Considering we are talking about only 144 hours away, I feel it could become a very exciting 24 hours....

Winters in the UK are like a Tombola. All the season we put our hands in that bucket, normally the odds are stacked against our favour....firstly we have to get a number ending in a '5' and even if we do, most of the prizes are unwanted Bath Salts. This winter though, things are different. It feels there are a lot more '5's and the prizes this time are epic...let's just hope we get a lucky ticket.

Great news about the updated TAF at Manchester Airport. I have drove home from Crewe to Halmer End (170m). When I left Crewe there was the odd hint of sleet and just got in and it's more sleet. It is is snowing in other areas at 120m then it leads me in good scope here.

Hey up all. I've moved since last winter from the Snow repellent that's called the Cheshire Plains to a village on a hill called Halmer End. Really I should be in the Midlands forum but as I still work in Crewe I feel to stay here! haha. I am now at 170m/560ft altitude and am quite excited by the updated Weather Warnings, hopefully my first house will get a dusting of the slushy stuff tonight!

A few pics from my trip up Mow Cop... was so interesting to see literally no snow and then all of a sudden it's everywhere!!

Going to pop up Mow Cop after work (about 4pm) as about 350m so snow should be intact and looking at ARPEGE it might still be snowing up there then....

Well It's snowing here in Nantwich, has been for the past 30 mins or so. Very small flakes but proper snow, not sleet or pellets etc...:P . Too light to settle but great to watch snow actually falling. Looking at the forecasts and NMM etc it looks like we are going to be under it literally all day.

I reckon they think it will pep up further west? Who knows, if you scroll through the Arpege you can see it 'happen'. If it does or not is another thing! haha

EXciting update from ARPEGE (The Met O trusted friend)... It has updated the position east now but it still moves west in the end and we are all in the smack area again... now.... later...

i agree, I don't expect it to but just wondering why they didn't change their area of the warning? Unless they have other models etc hinting otherwise. Awaiting the NMM and ARPEGE with interest.

I'm quite resigned to the fact that we could miss out, but I'm just confused that if the Met O saw the change of position of the band they didn't shift their graphics east when they updated it at 3pm? Maybe they still think it will swing back west slightly?

The MetO have literally just updated their Warnings and East Cheshire is still in the middle of it, maybe they expect the precipitation that is coming from Scotland to still hit us? https://t.co/TmvTfmDfrK

Just been for an hour walk round the edge of Nantwich and was rain/sleet all the way. Even though it wasn't snow I really enjoyed walking in it, as there was a beautiful eerieness as there was absolutely no wind and you could hear the sleet hitting leaves etc. It's actually blue skies here now, so temps will drop. I genuinely don't care now if it does or it doesn't snow later. Anything would be a bonus! lol

Lol. Well that tells me what to expect....

Right, my eyes hurt from looking at too many websites, charts etc. Going to clean the house and go for a big walk to give my eyes (and mental state) a rest!

This is a good sign, especially in your location. Most forecasts have it turning to snow later on but to start off, even when light, is great as evaporative cooling will only help to keep it snow (if heavy).

Interestingly Saint Snow on TWO has just said (just before 1pm) that the temps there have started to fall away and he is already at -0.2c and he is in St Helens.

Cheers. Just seems 'darker' now so hopefully the temps will drop soon as we can only be a temp or two above freezing if that.