[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Correct not good for us and why is there a thaw with -11 upper air temps 

Appears some solar radiation is causing the slight thaw ( remember we have limited cloud thickness at the moment  ). The wind has also veered more to about 100degrees meaning any convection is moving North of Thames. 

Winds will back more ENE around the Estuary in around 3 hours and should later begin to enhance convection.

Temps will fall back as Sun recedes so will probably freeze everything around 6pm. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

29 minutes ago, BOMBHEADS said:

well the met office is sticking to its guns, sounds like milder weather only making it as far as the SW, should stay cold in east.

Judah Cohens latest blog also supports a continuation of cold across Northern Europe including the UK over the next two weeks.

The link is here :-

   AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Moderate Snow.

After a quick temperature rise this morning  ( -1c to  0.2C  )...the temp has now dropped again to -0.2C

DP is -3.1C

Wind has risen in last 30 minutes and sky is eerily grey......

About 7CM new snow overnight.

67m ASL

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

23 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Not sure not bought my new weather station atm maybe this one has gone wrong as the other day it broke but I thought it had sorted itself out

Im just up the road from you and confirm a small rise in temperatures over the past 90 minutes..

 

Temp now -1.0C ( from -1.3C ) and DP -3.3C  ( from -4.5C ) so a milder layer now over us. The Snow that is falling is of a very wet type and causing some ground melt.

I would expect a lowering of temps again when precipitation clears. 

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Radar shows a small streamer with Medium intensity Zone heading from Cambridge ( South West  ) to Oxford atm.  Thames Estuary stratus cover seems to be thinning and light snow easing.  

First signs of streamer development perhaps appearing in the Estuary ......one area just east of Ipswich and another just offshore East of Norwich.  

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Light Snow here ( not fine flakes ) . About 2-3 / 10 intensity.

Temp -1.2C DP -3.9C  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Brocken Spectre said:

Some sort of streamer fired up out of nowhere over the Estuary and now snowing in the Medway Valley...blowing around on the road in mesmerising patterns!  

 

Estuary has fired up in the past hour

light Snow falling now in Shorne West..

 

Temp -1.7c  DP -4.3C

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Moderate Snow now. Starting to settle in places.

5/10 Intensity.

Temp still 0.8C  DP -1.1C 

The current  edge of the  "umbrella" of  precipitation is now just west of Gravesend heading slowly westwards. There is a heavier stream heading SW from Clacton to West Sussex. 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Heavier bursts now edging Westwards.... All Snow now as DP & Temps continue to fall.

Main line is East from Clacton to Royal Tonbridge Wells..

 

XCWeather Temperature animation shows lower temperatures heading into SE :-

 Temperature Observation Map - Britain (xcweather.co.uk)

 

Temp 0.8C DP -1.0c

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

All Snow now. 
67m ASL

3/10 intensity. Starting to settle.

Temp 1.0c. DP -0.9c

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

What's the temp there down to 0.6c here now much happier with that!

1.1c... DP -0.6

very fine grains but looking to stick

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Light snow in moderate wind here in Shorne West.

Intensity 2/10

[Model tweets]

Storm Darcy.......

Translated from Dutch it reads ........

The KNMI has given a name to the low-pressure area that will provide # snow hunting on Sunday: #StormDarcy. We expect #snow, strong winds and temperatures below zero. In combination with accumulations of # snow and # smoothness, this can lead to dangerous situations.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

9 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

the strong signal for cold seems to be being diluted 

ONLY on the GFS suite

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

52 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

yes, they used the term 'rather cold' yesterday' which, itself, replaced 'very cold' from Sundays update

Has to be one of the best long term forecasts i've ever read for Cold ! 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

Could be a tricky set-up for the SE

 

It’s been like that time after time this winter in the far SE. Everything seems to move North nearer to T0.

What is causing the LP to stick around rather than fade away East?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Radar showing sleet but drizzle here.   Temp 3.6C  DP 0.7

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

32 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

GFS 6z is not as good for our snow potential in the South. MOD thread is going to be tense today

Yes i think people in the south need to stand back and analyse the most recent NWP output ( over the last 24 hours ).

1. There has been a definitive move AWAY from a HP cell centred across the North to a more Atlantic dominated pattern.

2. The MJO is "retreating " towards stage 6,

3. Teleconnections are showing signs of neutral AO/NAO in the next 7 days.

4. The MET seem to have diluted the HP long term a little.

5. Record breaking warmth in parts of Southern Europe at the moment.  

So although nothing is set in stone it does appear that the chances for prolonged Cold & Snow is diminishing for the Southern part of the UK  ( AT THE MOMENT ). 

All is not lost but it does appear like a repeat of Cold Snowy North & Slushy/Flooded South is set to continue. 

If no Snow then let Spring come quickly. 

     

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Saturday looking good for the  SE corner on Harmonie........

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Sleet here after rapid temp rise of -1 to 3c in a couple of hours. 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Everyone on Mod thread looking at 10-12 days for the phantom Easterly when cold is already creeping ever closer from the North on every run. 
wasnt the Atlantic due to come “crashing in” on Monday ?  Seems now late Tuesday ?.

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

 

Wind at 10hpa went Easterly at 06:00 this morning ( -0.7m/s )....might give a shade more momentum to the block retrogression out East ?   

 

 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

13 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

I thought my desire for snow was high, but the Model thread: good grief, a different level entirely.

Pretty sure that thread's desperation for the white stuff is a cast-iron snow shield all by itself 

I agree . Heres the12z Op for Monday. All the real cold is draining to SE Europe the same as it always seems to. 

This already contradicts both Judah Cohen ( AER ) and Gavins (  Weatheroutlook ) views.

So for day 6 there is virtually nothing of wintriness in the UK at all.  So where is the excitement ?  

 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

GFS 6z OP at 168h is now full on +AO/+NAO.   I think this SSW is upside down !  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Netweather radar shows 100% Sleet across the region now ....lol